Caddo River

[confused]

Thanks for this.  OK, I saw a young horse running away from the whip and lugging in once Irad stopped whipping.  So?

[Chas04]

Looks like a young Mike strutting into the ring.

[ajkreider]

The hardest thing for me to read about KA\'s sheet is the effect of the equipment change.

If the blinkers moved him up, that\'s not really development.  The ability might well have been there as a 2 year-old, and he\'s just now running to his potential.  What would have his 2 year-old top have been, had he run that race with blinkers?

That\'s pretty much unknowable, but I can\'t make the assessment of his developing too much too fast (or not) without that info.

His workouts have been pretty meh, but EQ\'s have been even worse, so who knows.

[confused]

The reason TAP\'s early lack of success in the Derby never bothered me was my feeling that he believed that he had a clientele that wanted results in important races.  So he cranked the young horses far too much and got the success he wanted.  But this meant that the young horses peaked early, not only in Derby preps.  He was a solid \'bet against\' in Louisville for years.

I think he moderated this approach in recent years and maybe even found some owner/investors who approached the business differently, wanting longer term results.  If this is the case, KA maybe shouldn\'t be looked at through the same historical prism you might used for TAP Derby candidates in the past.

The blinkers moved this horse up a lot.  Enough to win?  I don\'t know, but his late run in Florida was the strongest (from my point of view) of any of these. He may have shied from the whipping he got, but he was motoring.  Ignore him at your peril.

[richiebee]

The other difficulty for me is that KA\'s \"development\" also coincides with his
arrival at GP, where Todd is Godd...what if KA does not like CD as much as he
did GP??

Thanks Molesap for the Florida Derby replay. I watched Florida and Santa Anita
Derbies for first time last night. First impressions:

1) Known Agenda\'s Florida Derby: When I watch a race like this that I didn\'t
bet on, I often wonder to myself \"Why don\'t horses that I bet on ever
get a trip like that??\"  Saved ground with cover, tipped out in the lane.
Another perfect trip at CD? I take his weaving a bit through the stretch to be
boredom more than anything. Can not comment on the gallop out until I see
gallop out for all career races.

2) Santa Anita Derby: Did not get the impression that RTW is a need to lead
type, can see him stalking. Got the knowledge I was looking for in post race
commentary. To paraphrase Sadler, RTW was entered in turf races \"to avoid
Baffert monsters\" he would have faced on dirt (I thought the reason might be
that dirt races were not filling). For those still embracing the \"jinx of
Apollo\" note that RTW did not start as a 2YO but made his first start on
January 1. Will not be splitting hairs and will use despite light foundation.

[boardedup]

Soupy might be fast enough and head strong enough to complicate things up front for RYW?  Unless he doesn’t want/need the lead and prefers to stalk the pace.  MS should be up there as well, who’s going to be closer to the pace than in their previous races?

[statuette]

Am I the only one who thinks RTW won’t lead....

[mjellish]

I would think Baffert and Johnny V probably send Medina for the lead and hope for the best, no?

Just sayin...

[bluechip21]

Agree. JV should be upfront IMO. RYW will rate and SS will be there for a bit as well. But if past derbies / CD play true to form, Medina will be tough. Even if the sheets don’t fit. I’m scratching my head with this one. This is one of the more perplexing derbies in recent memory. You have EQ beat HM by a head who got dusted by Weyburn (a Belmont contender IMO) last out. So I’m at witts end trying to figure this particular race out.

[confused]

JV\'s preferred placement, when he thinks he has a real contender, is on the shoulder of the leader, not going for the lead.  Medina Spirit belongs with this group.  I think you\'ll see him placed carefully near the front, not in the front.

[jbelfior]

Not what I can tell from the last work.

I think they want MS to have a target or two.

GoodLuck,
Joe B

[hellersorr]

bluechip21 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>  You have EQ beat HM by a head who got dusted by
> Weyburn (a Belmont contender IMO) last out.

It\'s easy to get dusted when you have a bad trip, though I\'m not so sure that less than two lengths = dusted.  HM had a bad trip in the Gotham.

(I\'m still scratching my head over the jock\'s \"no big deal\" comments afterwards.)

[johnnym]

“HM had a bad trip in the Gotham”
H.M has a tendency to break slow.

[richiebee]

Blue:

This is no typical Baffert. Medina Spirit sold at auction as a yearling for $1,000
and resold as a 2YO for $35,000 (TG page does not reflect \"pinhook\"??).

Back to the archives. Going back to 1997 and going through 2019, Baffert has
saddled 45 Derby starters. He has had five Derby winners. As best as I can
reconstruct Silver Charm (5² - 2³), War Emblem (1- minus
0²) and American Pharaoh (minus 1- minus 3²) all moved
forward off their final prep to win. For Real Quiet and Justify a pair was
sufficient.

One of the biggest forward moves by any Baffert trainee in the Derby has been
by Pioneer ofthe Nile, second to Mine That Bird (3² -
0³).

Including the above mentioned runners, as best as I can reconstruct, from 45
Baffert Derby starters between 1997-2019, six have moved forward in the Derby
from their final prep, seven have paired their final prep, the others have
offed or xed.

So my conclusion/opinion would be that in order for Medina Spirit to be
competitive, he would have to move forward in the Derby as much as any Baffert
runner has ever moved forward??

[Fairmount1]

Mattress Mac making a 2, 3, or 4 million dollar bet on EQ to cover his latest promotion potentially. . . .projecting odds almost impossible if he does shove in on this.

https://dknation.draftkings.com/2021/4/26/22403828/mattress-mack-kentucky-derby-bet-wager-essential-quality-pick-furniture-promotion-history