BB posters poll

[Michael D.]

TGJB had sunday silence running a \"6.25\" in his derby win. TGJB had unbridled running a \"4\" in his derby win. TGJB has storm flag flying running a \"2\" in her 10f win this year. how many of you think SFF, in her 2004 form, was more than eight lengths faster at 10f than sunday silence in his 1989 form. how many of you think SFF, in her 2004 form, was four lengths faster at 10f than unbridled, in his 1990 form? just curious.

[Michael D.]

personally, if we could get sunday silence in his \'89 form on the track with storm flag flying in her summer \'04 form in a 10f race, and i could take SS knowing that he only had to come within eight lengths of SFF to cash, i would bet everything i own.

[Michael D.]

and TGJB,
i bring up SFF to be fair here, because as you know, i once criticized len for missing a variant on SFF.

Those are types of comparisons that lead one to believe that even if horses are getting faster they aren\'t getting faster at the same rate as the figures.

IMHO, there is an upward bias in the figures related to pace and competitive quality issues as I\'ve described in the past.

It doesn\'t matter though because the bias (assuming I am correct) is so slow moving it doesn\'t impact the handicapping process. It only impacts intergenerational comparisons.

[Michael D.]

class,
for the first two paragraphs, yes exactly. for the last, a tougher issue. that is why some most of these issues are best solved at the windows (or with pre-race posts). if it is only the longer race #\'s that are being made too fast though, and the shorter race and middle distance #\'s are about correct (ie today\'s horses are bred more for speed than stamina than in the past) then we could have some handicapping issues. don\'t you agree?

You theory about long and short distances is logical based on breeding trends etc....

However, my personal observations do not support it. There have been some recent high quality horses that were versatile enough to compete on a similar level at various distances and their figures did not vary all that much from distance to distance.

I don\'t know of anyone that has had to make a major shift in their parallel time charts in order to keep figures consistent. To my knowledge sprint and route relationships have not changed much.  

If fewer track records are falling at longer distances it\'s because they run the very best horses at those distances much less often.

I would need some evidence of horses\'s figures moving in predictable ways when they change distance to believe everyone\'s figures are off.



Post Edited (12-13-04 16:33)

By the way, this is one of the advantages of being a classhandicapper. By that I do not mean a classhandicapper in the traditional sense - as in looking as class designations.

I mean knowing exactly how various unrelated classes fit together (claiming vs. allowance, open vs. statebred, shippers, 3yos vs. older at various times of the year etc...) and digging deep into the actual races to see if the specific field was strong or weak for the designation and how well individual horses ran.

It\'s a subjective skill that when done properly eliminates many of the accuracy and methodology issues of speed figures.

I like to do both because they usually  reinforce each other, but sometimes they conflict. It is well worth knowing when they conflict because those highly rates horses on speed figures that don\'t stack up on class don\'t hold up nearly as well as those that do.

Given 2 horses that are similar on speed figures and odds, I\'ll take the one that was competitive in the tougher field every time.

Given 2 horses that have similar looking performances against the same class and I\'ll take the one with faster speed figures every time.



Post Edited (12-13-04 16:48)

[Michael D.]

ok, we an disagree on that. if i could convince you though, do a bit of research on the breed of today\'s thoroughbred. roman\'s has a good book, and there are plenty of others out there.

michael,

I certanly agree with you on the breeding aspect of this. That\'s why it\'s so logical that you would be right.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Michael, you make a compelling case with the Sunday Silence, Storm Flag Flying illustration, but lets look at that a little more closely.

First of all, do you remember that 1989 Derby? They ran the race in 2:05. The track was a quagmire. I know Easy Goer didn\'t like that surface and I\'m not so sure Sunday Silence was fond of it, I just think he got over it better than Goer. The rest of that crop (at that time) were pretty much ham and eggers is my recollection. Sunday Silence was no whiz kid at 10 marks. He staggered in the stretch of the Derby. He staggered in the stretch of the Swaps and got run down by Prized. He lost to Criminal Type at the distance. He caught an absolutely wicked surface at Hallandale for the Classic and just managed to hold on.

Storm Flag flying\'s dam is My Flag. Thats Easy Goer and Personal Ensign. To my knowledge, she only had one chance to run at 10 marks. I think she was better at that distance than you give her credit for. I guess the question is would 2004 SFF beat 1989 Easy Goer and Sunday Silence? We\'ll never know. I know that if I was continueing to make figures, they would probably NOT be cross generational. Personally, I don\'t think the base data can provide for cross generational comparisions. All that really matters is that the figures separate horses for handicappers NOW. I know I could not rely upon the Rags for that determination.



Post Edited (12-13-04 21:27)

[Michael D.]

ctc,
some good points about sunday silence. i can tell from your tone that you were an easy goer fan, i was as well. that was right around the time i started watching the game closely, and easy goer was my first hero. sunday silence did run a pretty fast preakness. he also ran 2:00.1 in the BC, but as you say, that track was awful quick. his last 10f race was against criminal type, and he lost by a head, but still finished in 1:59.4. the horse was no secretariat, but he was pretty tough going a route..... rags gave his derby the same # as TGJB, i have to imagine they both have it right. the problem is SSF\'s 10f race. rags has it much slower than TG, and i\'m pretty sure all other figure makers don\'t have it fast either (i will check that). ctc, you make some good points, but i like sunday silence over SFF getting the eight lengths even more now.



Post Edited (12-13-04 19:43)

[Michael D.]

and ctc,
i am also a SSF fan, i picked her in my pre-race post going 10f against azeri. i was pretty sure that race was going to collapse. she just didn\'t run all that fast that day. and again, TGJB did some pretty good variant work with SSF\'s sheet early in her career, finding a relatively fast race when most all other figure makers missed it.



Post Edited (12-13-04 20:12)

[jimbo66]

Well,

I was a Sunday Silence fan who also admired Easy Goer.  I don\'t think Sunday Silence was as \"suspect\" at 10F as you say CtC, but I agree it probably was not his best distance.  

It is hard to imagine betting on SFF giving 8 lengths to Sunday Silence at any distance.  

It is only 15 years of elapsed time too, so it isn\'t like comparing a 1950\'s Home run hitter with a modern day home run hitter.  

Without any mathematical calculations and purely instinctual reaction, I would say it is nearly impossible that SFF is 8 lengths faster than Sunday Silence.

But I can\'t prove it!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Jerry said its a 2, I\'m gonna defer entirely to that judgement. SFF carried the weight, she went wide. I think the track was tiring and they came home slow after setting very legitimate fractions. 2:03\'s can be very good times at Saratoga and it looks like that was a good time that day.

Sunday Silence won one other race at 10 marks. The Super Derby. He beat Belated Earl. He obviously had Goer\'s number, but he was suspect at 10 marks. I still think if Goer had a more aggressive rider the 3-1 margin would have been in his favor not Sunday\'s. Distance is what obviously separated them. Goer needed to run a little farther or be ridden more aggressively.

CtC

[beyerguy]

How in the world can a horse that wins the Kentucky Derby, the Super Derby, and the BC Classic be considered \"suspect\" at 10 panels?  That is comical actually.  What about the Preakness?  Another 1/2 furlong was not going to get Easy Goer by that day either.



Post Edited (12-14-04 05:33)