Hals Hope Addendum

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The Gulfstream Card looks like a good one for Saturday and the race that interests me most is the Hal\'s Hope though I don\'t mean to suggest it offers value. I\'m just not sure yet. I\'ll look at figures Friday night to decide. The horse that is interesting is Commentator of course. You can\'t win that many races with that apparent ease and not get noticed. (I\'m well aware from an energy expended perspective theres no such thing as an easy race.) This horse reminds me of Ghostzapper a little, though not having run in Ghostzappers class. He was pointed for the sprints and has been left there for longer than you would think was necessary. I keep scratching my head over that. That last OC 100K race is a puzzlement. I can\'t figure out putting him in there for another one turn effort. Just doesn\'t make any sense.

Zito has told the competition he\'s going and that anyone running with him is in trouble. I don\'t know if thats gonna dissuade Badge. I\'ve only begun to look at this race, but I\'m getting interesting feelings about it. Commentator and Badge look to be the favorites.

I missed Second of June getting beat in his return. His conqueror \"Smooth Lover\" is in this one. (I have to say it. I remember wearing a Yves St. Laurent sportshirt to a tavern one night and on the breast was the stylistic monogram, \"YSL\". I was flirting with a filly and she asked \"What does YSL mean?\" Without missing a beat, I responded \"Youthful Smooth Lover\" of course. She was duly impressed...lol). I\'m not sure this Smooth Lover is gonna be able to withstand the heat but won\'t make final judgements just yet. That last race was not bad.

CtC



Post Edited (01-07-05 11:54)

[jimbo66]

CtC,

Why would you suggest that there ISN\'T value in this race?  There are 13 horses entered.  Dynever might be post time favorite, a horse that a few people love, but most love to bet against.  Commentator is 5-1 on the morning line.  Badge of Silver is 4-1.  

Looks like a GREAT value race.

AS for picking a winner, that is a different story.  I will look closer and post later.

Jim

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I hear what your saying Jimbo. I just think the crowd is going to favor those other two. I\'m suspecting off odds in the neighborhood of

Commentator 9-5
Badge 2-1
Dynever 5-2 maybe 3-1

The funny thing is I suspect Dynever is gonna run his best race and I\'ve always felt 9 marks is probably his best distance. I like the circumstances for him. Large fair track, weight off, jockey change. I think theres gonna be some pace unless Commentator speed pops em and I\'m wondering about the latters two turn affinity. Theres some speed in here. Predominently Commentator and Badge, but Added Edge and Wake at Noon don\'t figure to be far off. I won\'t forget Purge either. Frankel\'s magic gets horses to run on at a point they would otherwise tire. I think you saw some of that in Badge\'s last. (Though some of that may have been Bailey) Otherwise, I\'d say Commentator is going to discourage him. That Badge has to have the lead, but with Frankel now, I\'m not so sure. Commentator breaks inside of the primary speed threats and he\'ll protect his position. Its gonna be a question of pace. Bailey can\'t afford to let Commentator go for too long and I don\'t think he will. He\'s gonna test him for class and test him relatively early if he can. Now the question is does Frankel have a \"gentleman\'s agreement\" with Zito over a small change race...lol

I think this is a terrific race for a Grade 3 prep at this time of year.

Commentator has the look of a very good horse. When they are this dominant and untested they usually have something extra in the tank. On the other hand, he\'s been beating nothing with loose leads at shorter distances. IMO he will be tested severely today. This is not the type of horse I would take as the favorite - especially being trained by Nick Zito. If he\'s a monster, so be it, but not with my money as the favorite. I will probably be rooting for him. The sport needs another star.

I think Badge of Silver ran a terrific race in the Cigar. I think he was best that day. He dueled hard during the middle of the race while wide and finished best out of Purge and Pico Central (other high quality pressers). He\'ll be a force to reckon with for the other speeds here again. The key will be can he put them away and get 9 furlongs. I\'m not sure this is the best spot because of all the speed and the extra furlong. In any event, if Frankel can hold this horse together he may have another gear we haven\'t seen because he is still lightly raced. However, his career has been interrupted by injury so many times he may get carted off in the ambulance tomorrow.

People might dismiss Purge completely because it looks like he ran so badly last time out, but I don\'t think it\'s impossible for him to bounce back with a good effort. He was off about a 3 month layoff in the Cigar. I didn\'t expect his best race that day. He also does his best running when rated just off the pace. That day he was used hard in the middle part of the race.   If he rates today I would expect a much better performance. If he\'s wound up a little tighter than last time he could find himself in a perfect position just off some tired horses turning for home. He needs to try to tuck in behind Commentator and BOS from the outside post.  

Dynever looked like a talented horse in 2003 as a lightly raced 3YO. He was moving forward nicely as the year progressed. Most people thought he would develop into a top quality horse in 2004. The year was pretty dismal though. He didn\'t follow through. He actually went backwards a bit during his 4yo campaign. He was beaten in several spots where it looked like he had a huge shot to win. He obviously fits here very well and should get a good pace to run at. But the downside is that he\'s a deep closer from way outside in a big field and he has trouble winning. If the pace is fast and he doesn\'t win today you can bet against him for the rest of the year because he\'s probably not going to have a better chance than today.

Added edge occasionally runs a good race, but I think a lot of things are going to have to break his way for him to get the job done.

More tomorrow after I see some odds.



Post Edited (01-07-05 22:38)

[jimbo66]

CtC,

I think you will be pleasantly surprised when you see the actual odds.  

I just took a good lock at the PP\'s for the race.  Did anybody see the morning line odds?  It is one of my real pet peezes when the ML maker is way off in a race where he shouldn\'t be.  How he can make Commentator 5-1 on the ML is ridiculous.  You MAY see 5-2, but more likely 2-1 or so, like you suggest CTC.  But you iwll see 3-1 or better on Badge and more importantly (at least for me), is that we will see 6-1 or better on Purge.  I like Purge in this spot.  Commentator and Badge +  some cheap speed keep the pace honest.  Purge does best when stalking, not sure why is last race was so bad, but at 6-1 or better, I will take a chance on him.

Great race in early January.

Good luck

Jim

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I tend to agree with what you said Jimbo. i won\'t quibble over a point in odds. Thats within the margin of error. Commentator is trying two turns and 9 marks for the first time. He\'s taking a class step too. Its not the toughest class increase I\'ve seen, but its a step up. Handicapping principles say \"Don\'t accept short odds in this situation\" and short odds are what you\'re gonna get.

Zito says this is a prep for the Donn, he\'s handled this horse very carefully. Either he has one he\'s not confident in or he\'s got one he wanted to bring along very slowly. Even more slowly than he tried to bring along Birdstone and TCE early last year. I have a suspicion which, but regardless it\'s hard to accept short odds on this horse.

Badge hasn\'t negotiated the ground either, but he\'s gotten close. That Risen Star showed some potential, though when the competition elevated in the La Derby he stopped like he was shot. The NYRA mile looks to be evidence that he\'s closer to running a Risen Star than an La Derby type race. But these are older horses now and a Risen Star won\'t be good enough. I don\'t think he\'s unsound. If he was the venerable Bailey wouldn\'t be up. He may have needed the last. He\'s working like gangbusters. He\'s gonna have to run down Commentator and then keep running. Despite the Frankel/Bailey/Juice Trifecta, I consider 3-1 or less short odds. I think Frankel is trying to figure out what he\'s got too. I still think he\'ll be the second choice.

There was some serious ability questioning of Purge after the NYRA mile. I don\'t think that was Purge\'s race. He\'s getting in relatively light and if he runs his Jim Dandy or Peter Pan what result would you anticipate? His December 27th work is a couple clicks off Badge who worked the same day. I like Purges last two works as compared to Badge\'s last two under the circumstances.

That only covers these three. This is a heckuva race. Although for the present I\'ve seen a little shift in the main to my reckoning and watching the track close may be key to this race. The others tomorrow.

CtC

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

A big part of that Derby purse hike was other Stakes being cut. The horsemen gotta love that. Comeon Churchill, don\'t do it on the cheap. Reach down, dig deep and be men about it.

Hals Hope:

Country Judge - On his best ground saving effort he could pick up a piece. He hasn\'t missed the board since Iraq was really free.

Added Edge - Fittingly named now that he is in Roman\'s barn. Roman\'s certainly appears to have moved him up. I won\'t hold the second against him. He got wide on a fast pace and may have bounced somewhat after the layoff. To my eye, he looks like he will slide over just behind the front enders and be in good position. Its a question of class and that added edge.

Wake at Noon - He\'s 8 yrs old now and had a bad 2004. Thats probably enough for most handicappers, but I think he\'s gonna be a factor in this race. I can\'t see shipping him all the way down otherwise. He popped well first in Florida last year and they\'re giving weight (not much) to a hard knocking back class animal. When he\'s routed, hes been a front end type, though he obviously can make runs from just off the pace. I\'m more inclined to think the small money is his best case scenario, but I wouldn\'t be surprised if he gums up the works for the \"heavy heads\".

Collateral Damage - This one could get a small piece too.

Dynever - This horse has more speed than people give him credit for. However, from that outside post he is going to have to negotiate some kind of trip where he doesnt concede ground he can\'t recover. He can\'t afford to. He\'s not the phenom folks thought, but he\'s not a bad horse either and depending on the track can pick these up with a good effort. (Truly a Judge is not a bad horse and despite the big track he wasn\'t going to close into that Hollywood strip on those fractions.) If he can avoid extra wide and gate trouble I\'d expect him to be right there. Still is 3-1 what you want in this scenario?

Alleged Ruler - Heres an A.P. Indy that got a late start. This is his four year old year. This is a tough post and spot but this horse has nowhere to go but up. I thought he was a \"presser\" my first glance, but now I\'m inclined to believe he can run his race regardless of his pace positioning.

I kind of feel like Len Friedman, I\'ve basically mentioned the whole field, but I only believe theres three horses with a chance to win. The key to this race is of course Commentator. I think its very hard to predict how he will react if hes headed. He hasn\'t allowed another horse to \"head\" him. His very first start was evidence of his go go style. He bumped broke 13th and then blasted to the lead by the first call. (Granted NY bred maidens) I think he wins this race or probably misses the board. I\'m gonna play him both ways. On top alone and to miss it all.

CtC

>Badge hasn\'t negotiated the ground either, but he\'s gotten close. That Risen Star showed some potential, though when the competition elevated in the La Derby he stopped like he was shot. <

He had a problem that day. I can\'t remember if it was a displaced pallet or what, but he was in the middle of making the winning move and stopped like someone shot him in the head with a bullet. I also think he is slightly suspect going 9 furlongs after setting a pressured pace, but the LA Derby was a meaningless non-event in that regard.

I can assure you that Purge\'s last race wasn\'t as bad as it looks. The 2nd quarter of that race was hotly contested and he was simply put away by horses that were better that day. Combine a slightly short horse (off the layoff) with a hot pace and you get a well beaten horse that didn\'t really run that badly. I\'d be shocked if he doesn\'t put up a much better speed figure this time around as long as he rates and tucks.



Post Edited (01-08-05 15:29)

I wouldn\'t worry about Commentator being headed. I\'d worry about him ding donging with high quality speed horses like BOS and Purge. There\'s a difference between being headed by a NY State Bred that you are much better than and trying to run with  horses that can hit you with a 22 and change quarter in the middle of a route, keep battling you for awhile, and then have to hold off a quality closer. :-)

This race is certainly going to test him unless for some reason the race falls apart or everyone takes back.

I think Comm. is almost certainly good, but it\'s really hard to take a co-favorite that\'s being tested for the first time in multiple ways. Then again, IMO the rest of the major contenders are also flawed.

I think there are several horses with a similar probability of winning (Commentator, BOS, and Dynever). Arguing which one of them deserves favoritism is a waste of time. If you put a gun to my head I\'d take BOS, but I doubt I will get the price I need.  

None of them will be bettable with any margin of safety unless one of them goes off at much longer odds than expected. IMO, Purge\'s chances are slightly below those top 3 because I am slightly less sure he will be 100% today. He was slightly sub par in the Cigar (better than it looks). If he\'s 100% today and rates, he\'s clearly as good as these are and may have room to improve. But I think he will probably be bet accordingly - slightly longer odds than the other 3.

After that you are fishing for a big price and a lucky trip or a race collapse.



Post Edited (01-08-05 15:58)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Class,

Its a funny thing about stopping. Sometimes its injury related. Sometimes its a bit more than that. I think Badge stopped as a three year old for a couple reasons. He has generally been a little short late against better horses, but Frankel is trying to \"correct\" that. He\'s missed twice, one  rare miss at NYRA grade I stakes level. Another at odds on.  I think theres some quality here and the jockey/trainer bettors can have Badge dropping to a Grade III at the odds I expect him to go off at. Im not gonna let him beat me.  I\'ll protect in second and probably put him small atop my favorite.

It was reported in DRF etc... that he had a problem in that LA Derby race. Not speculation. That race is a throw out.  I was very high on his first few starts and saw the race on TV and followed up.

The suspect race is the Gen George. He backed up for no reason that I am aware of. However, his last was extremely game. The middle was blistering and he finished well. 9F is a little suspect with expected pace pressure though.

I\'m looking at the board now.

5-2, 5-2, 3-1, 9-2.

If anything, Dynever is the bet at 9-2.



Post Edited (01-08-05 16:53)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

lol

how do you like the odds CH?....lol

The favorites are being crushed...its gonna be a question of working in one of the four that have a board chance. Dynever is getting ignored some. Thats a bit of a surprise.

I\'d really hoped to catch Purge at 6-1 maybe more. I\'m surprised. I think I\'m about to scrap the entire plan and go with a wish and a prayer.



Post Edited (01-08-05 17:04)

Yes. I wasn\'t expecting to find a bet here because I didn\'t have any information that everyone else can\'t see other than maybe Purge\'s last not being as bad as it looks. But he \"IS\" getting bet. Dynever at 9-2 is sort of tempting. Let\'s see the late betting.



Post Edited (01-08-05 17:04)

5-2, 5-2, 3-1, 7-2.  LOL

Looks like a nice race to watch.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

lol...

Ok revised plans.

Im watching....lol

Good Luck