Note the date

[TGJB]

Fellas, it is March fifth, not April 10th. History is full of examples of horses who were running fast now and didn\'t get there-- Thunder Gulch and SJ are among the very few examples over the last 20 years of March horses who pulled it off.

And the reason everybody thinks DM wasn\'t 100% is because Ellis said so? Did you ever hear a trainer say his horse coming off a layoff WAS 100%?

My guess is he ran about a 2-3, and his effective top over the next few months will be only a little better than that, if at all. That\'s based on his early development at two, his lack of development in his last 2 2yo starts, and Ellis\' training pattern.

High Fly probably went back and won. He looks like the wrong kind for the Derby as well-- Michael\'s idea of freshening him and giving him just one into it would have been the right idea. Too late now, it\'s pretty unlikely he has more short term development in him.

I will be looking to bet aginst these two in the futures. Upon whom is the tough part.

[Michael D.]

TGJB,
i\'m a big fan of declan, but you make a very good point. the horse does things on his own. i don\'t see him improving a bunch between now and the first saturday in may. if you tell me he only ran a \"2\" or \"3\" i will be a bit concerned. remember, he did get pushed out on the first turn though.

TGJB,

I said yesterday that I didn\'t believe Declan would be 100% today. That was before Ellis said anything.

I believed he wouldn\'t be 100% because it would be borderline retarded to train that way when the horse is clearly on the Derby trail. I\'m not an expert on Ellis\'s methods, but he does seem reasonably competent to me.

I have no opinion on how much he might develop from here. I haven\'t been much of a fan of this horse because I am suspect of his ability to get 10F. I am looking to play against him some point. I just don\'t know when yet. I did consider it today though.

[mbeychok]

If the horse wasn\'t 100% he was very close. Ellis might be the best at SA in getting top efforts from horses coming off a short layoff and going long.  In fact, he won a race later in the day off a layoff. I don\'t know how long that one was but the horse won easily. He wins at about a 40% clip with 1st off layoff going long at SA so he gets his horses cranked up first out of the box. That being said, do you really think he would change his training methods in mid-career for just one horse. I say no. You do what you\'ve always done with success and that is crank \'em up on their first outing. We may have seen Declan\'s best yesterday - statistics say we did. I can\'t wait to bet against him at some point - just don\'t know whether it will be at the SA derby or in the KY derby but he won\'t improve much from this point on.  If he was only 95% and he improves to 100% in his next start - what number will he run then if he ran a 2 yesterday - a 1.90?
Michael

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

These fitness things are relative.

Sometimes the horse decides he\'s fit enough or decides to overextend himself. I took a gamble on Lundy\'s Liability despite Frankels lamintations about weather and training. We\'ll see if the weather held him back or whether despite me liking it, his pedigree held him back.

If Ellis knew he could train DeClan to 95% and get away with it cuz Going Wild was gonna take an energy wasting tour he\'s a great trainer.

[TGJB]

Agree about DM. And even if he could have run a little better, he still will have to deal with the effects of the new top. As Ragozin said to me almost 30 years ago (gulp), even if we assume they could have run a few lengths faster this time, that doesn\'t mean they get to use those lengths next time. It\'s still a top.

And as I said about this horse last year, Ellis horses don\'t exactly run solid campaigns. He trains hard, and they don\'t hold up that well, or make a lot of starts.

[Michael D.]

watched the replays....

high fly could be short. he is a pounder. he takes too many strides. that said, i think the horse does have a big heart, and he is able to make his own pace, a huge advantage. i would also like this horse running over a sloppy track. i will keep my 32-1, but would avoid him at low odds in the next futures pool. bandini will be over hyped. he wasn\'t finishing strong. somebody gave his \"re-rally\" as evidence of pletcher\'s drug use. he ran the last eighth rather slow, just a little faster than high fly

declan was wider than i though around that first turn. other than that, he got a perfect trip. he was facing three average colts, two of them stopped like they were supposed to, and the other broke down. if he gets bounced around in a big field and loses position, i\'m not sure he will have the energy at the end to make up the difference (especially in a 9f or 10f race). the horse is extremely quick though, and he does have a huge stride. if he continues to break and settled like he did yesterday, i\'m not sure there is another colt out there that can beat him. will be interesting to see his #. 1:42.4 seems a bit slow over that surface, but the horse did lose a lot of ground.

i can see the enthusiasm in trying to beat both of these horses, but i don\'t see any budding superstar 10f colts out there. could it be that the 2005 derby winner hasn\'t even run in a stakes race yet?



Post Edited (03-06-05 17:10)