Cat Scratch Fever

[NoCarolinaTony]

I Thought they sold Sis City to McNair (Im sure its the same outfit as Sort it Out went to) and not sure she is still in Dutrow\'s care.

[kev]

HP said :In the past, I thought you could tell how a trainer\'s horses would do based on how they ran on the undercard. After this year\'s BC, I think certain trainers may be willing to sacrifice their undercard horses for the Big One. Another scenario to consider....
Could you go into this more?? I don\'t quite understand?? These things are going to have to be on a case to case?? Break it down??

[NoCarolinaTony]

Zito on the undercard #1) Belmont Day 04
Zito on the undercard #2) FOY day this year

I always bet Zito on the undercard of a Big Race Day

[HP]

Hi Kev,

I went against Ghostzapper, because I didn\'t think Frankel\'s horses did that well earlier in the card.  I know there are plenty of other reasons why Frankel\'s other horses may not have won or run well on the undercard.  I\'m sure others can go horse by horse and explain why the others did what they did.  

I have been watching horse races for 25 years.  I can only call that Classic performance....freaky.  The other Frankel horses....did not look.....freaky.  They looked....ordinary.  

NoCalTony may be right about Zito.  I don\'t know.  I only know what I think I saw.  And this is bumming me out.  HP

[NoCarolinaTony]

HP I was with you this year with frankel on GZ on breeders Cup day aftet wathing one Frankel after the other come up short just like they did the year before in Santa Anita. SO I BAILED on the obvious Horse for those reasons. Only to watch him run his Eyes out. For what it\'s worth Bobby F also trains for the Ramseys\' Owners of the #2 Horse Roses in May. Ever wonder why that one never pushed GZ earlier in the race?

This isn\'t aimed at anyone in particular, but I think it\'s really sad that practically every single Stake race result is interpreted in terms of drugs.

[Michael D.]

class,
sad is the right word. some go too far on this board, accusing trainers based on # patterns and nothing else. the truth is, however, that the top three oaks candidates are trained by trainers who have been busted for positives recently. sad.



Post Edited (03-14-05 17:46)

[NoCarolinaTony]

CH

I am to the point where I will not even consider \"it\" anymore and just assume the facts as I see them historically and trying to project what will happen that day. Trying to out guess who is on or off costs me money. I am going to assume a level playing field based on the history of the horse/trainers performance until they go south like Oscar or Pete did years ago. These guys are high profile guys. If they are using they will get cought someday or some will be looking to make money will talk. I can\'t believe everyone keeps their mouth shut like they did up until watergate. Now its too fashionable to rat on the rats to take care of themselves. Are there drugs in Racing - YES OF COURSE. Find them. Until that point in time, as long as I am investing my money, I\'m playing based on recent history and trends and horse capability.

I will bet certain Frankel Horses Early in the campaign, I will bet certain Dutrow runners off the claim, I will bet Pletcher early in the campaign. (I still couldn\'t figure Vicarage this past week but oh well).  I\'m sure Vicarage will probably end up in the Blue Grass and place in the money then too, and clunk up for fourth in the derby at lot like Limehouse.

NC Tony

[richiebee]

Class:

 Its because we are all conspiracy theorists looking for reasons why we don\'t win consistently as horseplayers. Somebody posted yesterday that for all of their powers, Frankel and Pletcher still lose 70% of the time. Good point. At Belmont in the spring, I like to look for seriously overbet Frankel/ Bailey productions, especially in N1X N2X races. With at least a 70% failure rate, this combo burns some serious money.

Two regular posters on this board also commented that they have been enduring a bit of a handicapping cold streak, it must be the drugs/vets.

 Soon we\'ll be hearing that the White Mercedes was on the grassy knoll, or seen landing at Roswell.

 When Harthill had his own barn at Fairgrounds back in the 80s-- the stories I could tell. Talk about Area 51

[kev]

If you all use and belive in the TG numbers than here\'s something on Bobby F....this year\'s BC..........
1. Ghostzapper 1st and didn\'t run his top.
2. Light Jig 7th-7 1/2, ran his top
3. Nothing To Lose 11th-4 3/4, -1 top ran a 1.2
4. Cajun Beat 5th-3 1/4, 1/2pt off his top
5. Midas Eyes 10th-5 1/2, -3.3 top ran a -0.2
6. Megahertz really X\'ed.
How did he do?? on getting them up to par??

[gvido]

Back to the issue at hand:

Recently, Halfbridled and Storm Flag Flying were two \"super fillies\" that earned big figs in the BC like Sweet C, and were talked up for the Derby. Neither ever surpassed their 2yo tops.

Sweet C is by Storm Cat who throws precocious runners. The TGI for Storm Cats show 1pt improvement 2 to 3 and 3 to 4. I\'m guessing those improvements came primarily from slower SC offspring, not the very fast 2yos.

The two slow return runs don\'t inspire me at all.

[richiebee]

Miff:

  How can you expect anything out of the Grocer after you saw the way Sort It Out ran Saturday? GG has still not shown anything outside of NY, and even a win in the Gotham would not convince me he is Triple Crown material.

  Memo to McNair\'s re Sort It Out; Inner Dirt track closes Friday, reopens first week December, see ya then.

  Derby: Afleet Alex (no value round 2 future at 8/1) has iron form. He has fired in every race he has run in, and at 5 different tracks.

  My future bets: Noble Causeway (18), Sun King (10) and Wilko (21). I keep thinking about Noble Causeway\'s dad\'s race at CD in 2000 in the BC Classic.

[miff]

Rich,

Grocer put in a giant effort against Rockport Harbor last year. In his return this year he was very fresh and on the muscle(grabbing on too hard early) according to Angel Cordero.If he doesn\'t run big next out, I\'ll agree to X him out also.

I wouldn\'t be too hard on inner tube performer\'s, remember Smarty.

>Its because we are all conspiracy theorists looking for reasons why we don\'t win consistently as horseplayers. <

If it makes you feel any better, I am not doing very well this year. I don\'t bet very often to begin with, but I\'m having a tougher time than ever finding something I think is an overlay in any of the major stakes. I\'ve only made 6 prime bets so far this year and they all lost. The good news is that the favorite I was betting against finished off the board in every case except Badge of Silver Saturday and I wasn\'t expecting him to run poorly. I just thought he could get beat at 9F. Maybe the track helped him.

I have to tell you though, I haven\'t come out of any of the races feeling that drugs were a factor in my loss even if some of the horses are drugged. The races were fairly formful. The vulnerable favorites have run poorly. My horses just didn\'t the get job done.



Post Edited (03-14-05 19:17)

[NoCarolinaTony]

Neither were sound or ran well before Derby or Oaks, not sure if the comparison fits.