Lanes End

I think a good case can me made for a bunch of different horses in this race because so many of them seem set for an improved effort.

It will be interesting to see how they bet it.

For what it\'s worth, Texcess\'s last 3 races are all better than they look. I don\'t know if he\'s good enough to win, but he\'s better than he looks.

The Delta Downs race is the very hot paced race that Closing Argument came out of to run so well against High Fly. Texcess was on that pace, not just off it like CA.

In the San Rafael he got pushed wide on the first turn and was used to stay in contention.

In his last he was used hard again in the middle of the race to put away another horse and held OK.

I think they should just take him off the pace a couple of lengths and move later. Maybe Douglas will give him a decent trip just off the other speeds.



Post Edited (03-25-05 15:53)

[Kasept]

CH..

Aguirre says that Douglas has been riding Texcess in the mornings and has done wonders with him.. I think he gets first jump on the hot pace.

Haven\'t seen the figs yet, but I already know I\'m going to use Diamond Isle. First of all, note that Sarvis is the ONLY colony local with a mount here... TP is plenty quirky and I think his pressence counts for something on a horse sure to save all the ground. Also figure losing the mount on Magna Grad after the good job in the Battaglia should be motivating..

Additionally:

1.) Isle\'s previous pair of 2nd starts..
significant improvement BOTH times..

2.) Lost to Bellamy Rd., Consolidator, Patriot Act in those 2 juvy stakes..

3.) One of only 2 with a race at the trip (Wild Desert the other)..

4.) Only Gr. I participant here..

5.) 15-1

FWIW... And as always, previous handicapping prowess is no guarantee of future success.

Diamond Isle is on a long list of horses I think could be ready to move forward.

One of my favorite patterns for a lightly raced 3 YO is a workout since his last race that\'s much faster than has been typical to that point. Flower Ally, Spanish Chestnut, and Texcess all show that pattern.

Heck, I could easily make a decent case for any number of horses to move forward. In fact, it wouldn\'t shock me if this race is run a lot faster than it looks going in. There are that many horses that could run tops.



Post Edited (03-25-05 15:52)

[gvido]

Really going out on a limb there aren\'t ya CH? Predicting that spring 3yo\'s are going to run new tops? WOW, thanks for the update...

gvido,

ROTFLOL.  :-)

I guess what I meant to say is that in this case it doesn\'t look like there\'s just a couple that are ready for a big move forward. It looks like practically the whole field is coming up to race ready for a big effort.



Post Edited (03-26-05 10:39)

[JohnTChance]

The biggest question with TEXCESS is: Has he been injected again? That is, since his last race?
Is THAT what prompted the recent string of bullet works? Behind Aguirre\'s comments that TEXCESS
is only now \"100%\" and \"a different horse\" now?

Your move.

JohnTChance

[kev]

He\'s going to run a big race. At 6-1 ML I\'m in.

[spa]

at 6/1 it\'s WILD DESERT for me......TOOO MUCH SPEEEED for TEXcess!!!!!

[RICH]

Wild desert is the slowest horse in the race on # power, will have to jump up 4+ to be competitive. I\'m looking at Mayan King at a price, 2nd fastest horse in the race, pair up does it.

[TGJB]

Just finished ROTW, should be up in an hour or so. Interesting race.

I think the key for Texcess is that he has to try to lay off the pace. If he gets involved with a quality speed like Spanish Chestnut going fast, one or both is going to pay for it enough to cost them going 9F.

[JohnTChance]

In the ROTW analysis, Jerry points out that trainer Jennifer Pederson won this race with
SONG OF THE SWORD [in 2003 I think, less than two years ago]. Yet the trainer category
for Pederson indicates NO wins at Turfway [0 for 2]. Sorry to be a stickler about such stuff,
but... why is that? Why doesn\'t your database include this win?

[Kasept]

Wasn\'t it New York Hero in \'03 for Ernie, Jenn and \'Berto? Not SOTS..

(As to Pederson\'s stats, I believe the full page reports initiate from 6/27/04, but JB and others will know definitively.)



Post Edited (03-25-05 17:36)

[xichibanx]

Your right, New York Hero did win in 03.  SOTS was 2nd in the Illnois Derby and 3rd in the Lexington stakes for the same connections.

xichibanx

[JohnTChance]

Yes, you\'re right. It was NYH.

But as to the 6/27/04 date... that would mean Todd Pletcher had 1731 starts within the last 9 months, and Zito 1027 starts and Robert Desensi 95 starts within that time frame. If it was up to me, that stat should be at least TWO full years worth. That is,
the past 24 months.