The Palm Beach

[jbelfior]

Guys:

If it bothers you enough, one way around the Allday, Pletcher, Frankel, Dutrow speculation is to simply bet on turf races.

Speaking of turf, take a look at the Thoro numbers for the Palm Beach. Anyone think that the $79 winner was tough to come up with??


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Yeah!!!  I missed the Magna Pic5 by the nose of that horse. Wish I had some insight on this one. I did see he was just off the 3rd place finished,but discounted the horse since it was still a maiden. Bad move on my part. What did you see?

[jbelfior]

NO Car Tony--

A pair of 8\'s, albeit versus Maidens. However, I don\'t believe there\'s much difference between close finishes versus maidens in 3yo grass races and close wins in nw1.

Now you have the winner with slightly better #\'s at 35-1 than the post time 4-5 favorite. I say, why not?

I think we sometimes get locked inside \"the box\" when we handicap. I know I do this quite often.  We see a maiden and we automatically dismiss it despite what the numbers may be telling us. If we incorporate the \"class on the grass\" angle, then I\'m not so sure a nw1 3yo is that classy enough to be 4-5.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Joe B,

I need to go back to my Sheets at home to re-look at this race. This would be a good example to all about the value of the FIg vs just pure class handicapping especially at Grade III (as you say it really was a race of NW1 vs MDN horses on Grass anyway).

If you could bet the Third place finisher you certainly could consider the winner.

I had a very Strange Day. I used the sheets for the Dubai Race and Hit the Exacta large, but missed the SFecta (did not include Jack Sullivan). Used the sheets for first stake at GFX had the 2ALL ALL for a$7.20 first leg winner with two nice paying horses paying $595. Always got split in the exacta\'s (Stakes races only) at Turfway (Daddy Joe couldn\'t hang on) Nor could Arroyo hang on in the feature for second!!!. (Damn could have been a huge day). Only came away with a minor score when it felt like it should have been HUGE.

I Hit the last Pic 3 ($485 x2) at Santa Anita but Blew the Pic 4 (3986) because I didn\'t stay with the two as a single in  both bets in Race 9 (split with the 5 in Pic 4). I\'m still cursing myself.

JB Somewhere its metioned about TG sponsered seminars. Do you do that anymore? And if so where/when? Its time to break some old habits. I feel the big score coming.

NC Tony

[TGJB]

We almost never do \"live\" seminars any more. But we do send Bill Spillane to a lot of the handicapping contests, and he discusses the races from a table we set up.

The other way to go is to discuss races here, in advance.

[jbelfior]

NO Car Tony--

From what I have experienced using the Thoro-sheets, there are many more value opportunities on grass with the lower class animals (i.e. claimers, nw1 or 2, and Gr III or restricted stakes.)

I have found that here is where the Sheets have weeded out live contenders at nice odds that could not easily be deciphered just by looking at the Form.

I have not seen that kind of edge at the Gr II or Gr I levels.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[NoCarolinaTony]

JB,

Thanks will do that. It would be great if we can get the group to stay on a topic once in a while as we seem to always divert off the subject, (handicapping with TG) and back on to some non relevant tangent.

Anyway, I will take you up on the subject.

I plan to go to Keenleland for the first two weekends of the meet, the Bluegrass included, which seems to be shapping up to be a very interesting race to discuss.

NC Tony

[Michael D.]

hey tony,
i think i will be at kee opening w/e. let\'s meet up and compare notes on a few races.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Great - Look forward to it. I was there a few weekends back and they have these new betting machines attachd to a TV Monitor in the simulcast area atached to programed credit card like device. never have to visit a teller. (FYI)

I do have seats in the Grandstand for Fri and Sunday. Saturday we have the Wood and SA Derby as well. Should be lots of good betting opportunities to discuss. Lets keep in touch or you can email me above on how to find you.

NC Tony

[Michael D.]

sounds good tony..... they also have some better than average looking girls/women walking around with portable betting machines. i try to make all of my tri and super bets through them (all others over the phone). i will email you next week.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Your are right about the UK ladies (also in the bar area). If I were only 25 again...lol

I was out of town for the day and missed the board action. Look forward to hearing from you.

NC Tony