Hangovers?

[beyerguy]

First, I hope they put that Beyer in print for all to see, I don\'t buy it for one second.

I also don\'t buy the \"three prep\" theory either.  We\'ve heard the dosage theories, the no gelding rules, the Experimental rules, the NY or PA bred rules, the prep rules, the favorite rule, the front runner rules, etc, etc.  They all bite the dust when a fast enough horse shows up break one or more of the so called rules.  

In my handicapping, many times I find third off a layoff is the best you are going to get from a horse.  Sometimes its second, sometimes fourth.  To apply one rule to all horses seems silly to me.  It\'s all about price.  Give me a fast horse in the Derby with two preps at 20-1, I\'m betting.  Make him 5-2, I\'m out.

[Saddlecloth]

I agree with your logic.  I mean does anyone really think Lion Heart could have run better with another prep.  I think you have to look at it case by case basis, the trainer, the horse, the previous races, and then handicap the horse, rather then implementing any rigid rules about two preps. Times are changing terms of breeding and training, I have no doubt that two preps will become the norm in the next few years, especially should someone win the derby.  

beyerguy wrote:

> First, I hope they put that Beyer in print for all to see, I
> don\'t buy it for one second.
>
> I also don\'t buy the \"three prep\" theory either.  We\'ve heard
> the dosage theories, the no gelding rules, the Experimental
> rules, the NY or PA bred rules, the prep rules, the favorite
> rule, the front runner rules, etc, etc.  They all bite the dust
> when a fast enough horse shows up break one or more of the so
> called rules.  
>
> In my handicapping, many times I find third off a layoff is the
> best you are going to get from a horse.  Sometimes its second,
> sometimes fourth.  To apply one rule to all horses seems silly
> to me.  It\'s all about price.  Give me a fast horse in the
> Derby with two preps at 20-1, I\'m betting.  Make him 5-2, I\'m
> out.

Beyer and Saddle,

Am I allowed to agree with both of you guys but add what I\'ve been saying all along?

\"All else being equal\" (namely ability, odds etc..) In most cases I would rather back a horse that has been prepped via more traditional methods than one with just 1 or 2 preps. There is no betting downside to taking that conservative approach to making an odd-line given the horrid stats to date. However there is potential upside assuming the possibility that many trainers \"do\" have a tough time prepping a horse for 10F with a single prep or two.

I don\'t even think the proper way to think about this issue is black and white.

Beyer overstated the case by stating the horse is a total throwout. That\'s silly.

However, that doesn\'t make it right to totally ignore decades of statistical and wagering underperformance because of subjective figures and very subjective interpretation of them when the idea itself does intuitively has some merit.  

It \"may\" just be tougher in general for most trainers to take a young inexperienced 3YO with limited routing experience and have him both ready to get 10F and sharp enough to beat other talented horses with more experience on the first Saturday in May.



Post Edited (03-30-05 10:26)

[Saddlecloth]

Beyer,

I think he is a most likely throwout becuase these dubai rarely repeat those performances.

[fasteddie]

Someday, Godolphin is going to win the Derby, BUT not this way; yes they can win in Britain (Lammterra won the English Derby-turf) but not here UNTIL THEY RACE HERE.

The ever-changing dynamics of the game have altered the prep schedule, and someone mentioned this earlier, but I DO wonder how much the \"graded earnings\" game has affected training schedules; on that note, looks like the Fla. race this weekend is coming up very small! They never should have played with moving it to this weekend!

[jbelfior]

After reviewing JB\'s sheets of those with 2 or less preps; I find what happened to them afterwards (PREAKNESS) quite interesting.

See LION HEART, PEACE RULES, WORLDLY MANNER, VICTORY GALLOP (ran 2nd but fig dropped), TALKIN MAN.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

Joe,

Do you think their subsequent performance is evidence that they weren\'t short in the Derby (they didn\'t improve so they couldn\'t have been short) or that they went backwards because they weren\'t properly prepared for the Derby and it took something out of them?

Neither?

What about the fact that other figure makers may show a slightly different pattern for the same horses or that other styles of handicapping could indicate something else about which race was better?    

That\'s the thing for me. I don\'t know how you can come to any certain conclusions about any of this based on figures alone. They are one tool in the arsenal.

It\'s not like we have a scientific control where we know what figures the horses would have run under various different preparations.

What we do know is that a limited and very general sample of horses covering multiple decades has underperformed their representation and their odds so far.

Maybe that means something and maybe it doesn\'t. I\'d prefer to err on the side of caution.

[kev]

I e-mail him, hope you got it.

[jbelfior]

CH--

My feeling is that their lack of \"bottom\" followed by the tough Derby race set them back in their Preakness start.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Michael D.]

110 beyer for B&R.

if rockport runs fast in the ark derby, three of the fastest horses in this year\'s derby might be coming in with two preps.   this will be very interesting. i\'m undecided on the issue. i will definitely take a strong stand on these three horses before race though, let the results tell me if i am right or wrong.
.....

just found out that B&R is a half to limehouse. interesting horse. the connections of the horse he just dusted, parole board, look like they are coming to ky as well.



Post Edited (03-31-05 15:16)

[TGJB]

Michael D-- there is a whole string on this horse and that article below, it\'s what started all this. I\'ll be doing NAD today, but Beyer almost certainly has it too good.

Which doesn\'t mean the horse didn\'t run well enough to be a strong contender.

[Michael D.]

i hadn\'t noticed the beyer figure. i ignore those unless something jumps out at me, like this 110...... do the europeans have the race slower? did you have live ground there? globeform has the world cup and the sprint pretty fast, although not so great compared to other world cup days..... i will defer to you though. i guess the weights and ground loss played a big role in the outcome as you said.

[TGJB]

Michael-- Just did it. He saved ground and got weight from Frankel\'s horse, it ended up being good, but not off the charts like Andy had it. The dirt races were a little tricky, I had to break out the sprint-- we don\'t have wind and it could be why, since that race is down a straight. Do have ground off TV.

Big race wasn\'t tough, R&M got what he usually gets, Dynaver about what he gets. I\'m surprised someone had the sprint fast-- I had to take off a lot just to make it decent. Winner went back and won.

TGJB,

I wouldn\'t say Beyer has the race too fast or too good. I would say the horse earned a 110 with an easy trip and that\'s not as good as a lower Beyer figure with a more typical or tough trip.

[TGJB]

Ch-- I\'m not biting. I\'ve got work to do.