Florida Derby

[kev]

SORT IT OUT 3-1 is my throw out special today for low price horses. Sad thing is I don\'t really have a major key hoss, but I will play something on DOVER DERE 5-1. My best bet of today is of all places Sam Houston race 8....PANCHO TAM 8-1.

[Kasept]

PC - just don\'t see a reason why he will improve today. no thanks.


Micheal.. I think \'richie\', or someone here that operates close with GP, mentioned after the FOY that Papi was nearly lame as late as Thursday before the race... I hear now that he\'s 100% for the first time in a long time.. I\'m not into him today, but if there\'s a reason that he improves, it could be the aforementioned..

[Michael D.]

thanks kasept - i guess PC could improve a touch. had a bit of trouble last, and the pattern is going in the right direction (barely). i posted on him before the sham stks, and he ran pretty well at 9-1. even if he does improve though, his connection say he will be closer to the pace here, and with three horses with some speed drawn inside of him, he might lose some ground. another tough call in a bad betting race.

[Michael D.]

i\'ll take a 7-1 hit in a tough betting race like that.
.......

strange move by prado. a bit of patience and he runs right up the rail and wins. NC still might have run by if he hadn\'t shied away from HF and lost a bit of momentum at the 1/16 pole. the \'05 wise guy horse will be NC.



Post Edited (04-02-05 18:10)

[NoCarolinaTony]

Michael D,

You called it exactaly right even 4-1 on the exacta. I tried to split them with BB to get some value as track was playing to speed some. But BB can\'t get more than 1 1/16, couldn\'t settle for 4-1 on the exacta today. With hindsight it probaly was the only play on the race. Didn\'t bet much so didn\'t get hurt.

Vicarage is still running I think.

NC Tony

[Michael D.]

tony,
vicarage wasn\'t ready for a test like this. he only ran cause bandini got hurt. look at the timing and his #\'s: four month layoff - \"2\", two week rest - \"7.75\", five week rest - \"2\", three week rest - \"bounce!\". that is why pletcher and zito are in favor of a major prep five weeks before the derby. some horses need the rest.... i thought the exacta would pay 4-1 or 5-1. i was happy with $16.80. PC, BB and especially vicarage (only $22 behind HF!) took more money in the exactas than i thought they would.



Post Edited (04-02-05 19:17)

[Kasept]

MD..

A wholly unpleasant experience for VIC today.. He whacked the starting gate and then was well wide early.. Was anxious as can be on the backstretch and said \"Enough\" heading into the turn...

Park Ave. ran a credible race today.. Did you see Charlie Hesse and Buzz Chace after the race? They went behind Nick at one point and looked pleased.. I bet they show up at Churchill. He\'s got the cake to reserve a spot...

[Michael D.]

Kas,
sorry, no post raced excuses for vicarage accepted. he drew outside of BB and HF, i figured he would lose ground around around the first turn. competely empty in the stretch. when i saw 7-1, i figured the dogwood/pletcher crew didn\'t have all that much confidence.
......
PAB did run OK. he will be tough when he cuts back to 7f or 1m.



Post Edited (04-02-05 18:50)

[NoCarolinaTony]

I\'m so used to $2.00 exacta\'s(went brain dead). Got $8.4-1 for the exacata even better. Good value in low value race.

[davidrex]

   make room for me please....didnt even notice it was $1 dollar payout till you posted.Man was i upset over the payoff..lost money on saver till you enlightened me
                    thanx,

         PARTYpokerON

[BitPlayer]

TGJB -

I\'m trying to understand your position regarding the Louisiana Derby and High Limit.

To me, everything in Vicarage\'s past performances before and after the Louisiana Derby suggests a horse with distance limitations, yet he somehow paired his sprint top going 8.5 furlongs in the Louisiana Derby on a day when horses running close to the pace did very well.  The sheets you posted show those frontrunners all either pairing or exceeding their previous tops, which would be consistent with a track playing hospitably to speed (or horses with distance limitations).

I understand that many explanations for all of this are possible. For example, Vicarage was third-off-a-layoff and first-time-two-turns-on-dirt in Louisiana, and then got riled when he hit the gate yesterday.  One feasible explanation, however, is that something was favoring Vicarage that day and could also have been favoring High Limit.

Fast-forward to a loaded Blue Grass in two weeks.  Would you take that possibility into account when you evaluate High Limit\'s chances in that race?

[TGJB]

The point of posting the sheets for all 3 stakes on Louisiana Derby day was to show that running style and path made no difference in the way ANY horses ran relative to their previous ability. It wasn\'t just that race, and it wasn\'t just the frontrunners, who happened to be High Limit, Summerly and Badge of Silver (the favorites, and ones with the best figures going in). If you look at everyone from Kansas City Boy to Limehouse, you\'ll see that a very high percentage of horses with ALL running styles and getting ALL trips ran their race or close to it-- but the RESULTS (not the figures) were biased, by ground loss. If you don\'t use ground loss in your figures you can\'t know how well KCB, Limehouse, Pollards Vision and many others ran.

In point of fact, the only frontrunner I can remember giving a new top to was BOS-- and that was a 1/2 point new top. Several who were NOT on the lead paired tops or ran slight new tops-- but they were not as good horses, and traveled further, in some cases, so they did not appear to \"run well\".

I suggest that everyone with an opinion on this question (or who really wants to understand it) look at these sheets. They contain the number run that day, and if you look upper left of the page, the paths the horse ran in, and comments about where he was during the running.

As for High Limit in the Blue Grass- the questions to me in handicapping that race will include whether Frankel\'s horses are running well at Keenland, and who draws where. If his horses are firing, I would expect HL to run as well as his last, or better.

http://www.thorograph.com/hold/fg031205.pdf

[BitPlayer]

I\'m looking not only at the winners, but also at those right behind them.  For example, Carlea, by Carson City, who followed Summerly around and finished 2d at 29/1, exceeded her previous top (earned sprinting) by a point.

If I understand your position regarding pace correctly, when it has an effect (not often in your view), it affects only the TG figures of those running close to the pace.  That being the case, wouldn\'t you also expect the same of a speed-favoring track?  On a speed-kindly track, the speed horses run close to their tops (presumably also earned under favorable conditions).  On a tiring track, they run \"Off\" or \"X\" races.  The closers run their race regardless.  If that is correct, then when all the horses run their races, the track is on the speed-favoring side of the spectrum.

I find myself in the uncomfortable position of putting words in your mouth here, and I apologize if I\'ve done your views injustice.  The words \"absolutely no chance\" in your response to CH triggered me to think about whether an alternative explanation of the sheets you posted would make sense.

[TGJB]

My position is that when there is an extremely FAST pace, the effects of that pace, if any, will only be on the figures of the ones who run extremely fast early. I don\'t correlate that in any way to \"speed favoring\" tracks, because I don\'t think such a thing exists. There are speed favoring layouts (short stretches), there are tracks which the jockeys think are speed favoring, where it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy (they use their horses much more early, and a 6 furlong race becomes a 4f race-- nobody changes position late). There are times at certain tracks where certain paths are better or worse (Keenland?), and frontrunners have an advantage in getting to that path. But I have never seen a \"Speed bias\" reflected in the FIGURES, as opposed to the results. Doesn\'t mean it hasn\'t happened, but I haven\'t noticed it.

It seems to me that your question relies on the premise that there is such a thing as a \"speed bias\", rather than examining whether it exists. But I may not understand the question.

It also seems to assume that frontrunners are at a disadvantage-- they may or may not run their races , but others always will. As a practical matter, this is clearly wrong-- frontrunners do very well in American racing, out of all proportion.

[miff]

JB,

Many sharp racing people feel the FG track favored inside speed on the day in question.I totally agree that the runners subsequent race does not confirm bias. It seems that because all the runners performed in their normal range(i.e.TG figs), you have concluded there was no bias.

Just because a bias exist on a day, that does NOT mean that runners who are \"with\" the bias run faster.It does mean that horses against the bias run slower.

It means that the track \"played\" a certain way.I have studied bias for 20 years(mainly in NY) and have not seen BIAS aided horses necessarily run faster than their norm but  I have seen horses against a bias run much slower.

What methodology/science are you using to pronounce that there was no bias.To say that the figs bear out \"no bias\" is not something I can remotely understand if you mean the closers/wide runners performed to their norm.