Five Weeks Rest

[Silver Charm]

Lots will be discussed over the next Five Weeks about horses coming into the Derby off a slightly longer than normal layoff. Can they still win the race??

Being someone who was somewhat of a skeptic regarding High Fly I have to say after yesterday he may in the drivers seat. He will be very rested, fresh off the five weeks and has already run a mile once and a mile and an eighth THREE TIMES. Nobody else will go into Derby with that kind of bottom.

His solid tactical speed will put him wherever he wants to sit and the extra time going in gives the trainer the opportunity to do whatever he wants with him. Speed drills, stamina drills, light work, heavy work you name it.

I am not saying this is my selection but High Fly has already done what the others have yet to do. And yet when those others do it one week from now, experts will try and tell you they can win the Derby but High Fly can not.

Believe what you want.

[ezgoer89]

I disclose that I have High Fly in Vegas at big odds... plus more $ at 30-1 in Future 1 and 20-1 in Future 2.  That was a huge effort yesterday and I agree with everything Silver Charm says. HF will be in the garden seat in the Derby behind whoever wants to run on the lead. Zito will have him wound tight for Derby Day and this horse is sound and completely fit.  One 12 hour virus since he stepped foot on a track is amazing in this era.

Speed-fig for yesterday:

HF was only .14 seconds slower than Skip Away winner Eurosilver who had a previous top of 1.  HF carried 9 more pounds (about 2 pts?) than Eurosilver and their trips were not much different. Noble Causeway is the wild card. He only had a 5\" top - how big a jump up will he be given?

We\'ll see this weekend when Future Book 3 #s are out.

[kev]

There\'s a few ways to go for HIGH FLY fig. I think. He either ran back to the 1.2 ( top ) or he paired up his last 3.2 or he moved forward a bit to say a 2.2 or 3.0  so out of all these, is there one that makes him run a big one in the derby?

[Silver Charm]

If he ran back to his top, then I don\'t really know how much faster he needs to run.

So far nobody has run faster than he has at a Mile and an Eighth. And if they do with an extra week or two development does that mean this trainer can\'t get this horse to move forward.

Sun King has won once around two turns and that was at Tampa Downs. A filly will be the horse to beat in the Santa Anita Derby. There is a wagon load of people who love both those two. People on ESPN yesterday were still calling Sort it Out a Derby contender.

The Five Weeks Rest debate came about when I heard two completely different opinions from two very smart handicappers. Jeff Siegal stated yesterday that one could perhaps ignore the layoff discussion going into the Derby because in most cases it probably was an indication of soundness or lack thereof. I agree, and with the major Derby Preps traditionally being only two to three weeks out from the Derby, who was bypassing those big races. Nobody with a fit horse. And yet only a couple of weeks ago I heard Kurt Hoover state that after last year he was convinced nobody could come into the Derby off a layoff and win.

Who is right.

I will admit that a Prep three weeks or two weeks out does have a horse on the muscle Derby Day. And when it was won by a Calif shipper coming in off the four week break the horse usually had a trainer (Whittingham and Baffert) who put their campaigners thru some serious drills between then and Derby Day.

One thing is for sure in regards to the Five Weeks Rest, Zito isn\'t guessing and most handicappers will be.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Zito is talking about giving Noble Causeway ome more race (Lexington) before the Derby. He\'s not as sure about horse\'s conditioning from what I gathered in his interview after the race.

NC Tony

[Silver Charm]

I perceive him as more of a Belmont Bullet for Zito to fire.

However if a fresh High Fly wins the Derby and goes into the Preakness a dead fit horse, and comes out a winner, would you load another bullet and possibly see your Triple Crown hopes be shot down by friendly fire.

Tough Call

\"HF was only .14 seconds slower than Skip Away winner Eurosilver who had a previous top of 1. HF carried 9 more pounds (about 2 pts?) than Eurosilver and their trips were not much different.\"

IMO, HF may have had the tougher trip.

Eurosilver was loose on the lead and unpressured for part of his race.

High Fly was chasing much faster fractions and set what appears to be a fairly quick pace himself even though he was off it. Vicarage and Mighty Mecke, who were also fairly close to that pace while wide, dropped back pretty badly. It is possible that both HF and BBB ran even better than it looks on paper.

For me the question mark is whether he wants 10F.  

IMO, Zito is going to get another big effort from Sun King. Last out was a just walk in the park against garbage cans. Zito is loaded!



Post Edited (04-04-05 09:50)

[beyerguy]

The pace was definitely quick, especially compared to the other two routes on the card that were all run within 46/100s of each other on final time.  I think we\'ve seen our first legit horse step up and stake a claim to the roses, along with possibly the Dubai horse.  No reason to think the other Zito can turn the tables unless the pace is extremely hot on Derby Day.

[BitPlayer]

Interestingly, Beyer doesn\'t have High Fly\'s Florida Derby that fast (102).  Brisnet has it as the fastest Derby prep thus far (108).

People keep questioning High Fly\'s stamina, but nobody has run by him late.  Noble Causeway didn\'t make up any significant ground late on Saturday (half a length in the last furlong) and HF was under a hand ride when Bandini made finally started to close ground in the Fountain of Youth.

Sun King, on the other hand, had horses run by him in the stretch in his last couple of races as a 2yo.

Do Brisnet and Beyer use the same exact scale?

[ezgoer89]

FWIW... High Fly received a new top Beyer of 102 for the Fla. Derby.

[HP]

Five weeks rest is no good.  Nobody\'s ever gotten anywhere with it.  I\'d be happy to have High Fly in the futures at 30-1, but on Derby day at 4-1 or so....I doubt I\'ll take it.  

Moving right along...

Class wrote -- \"High Fly was chasing much faster fractions and set what appears to be a fairly quick pace himself even though he was off it. Vicarage and Mighty Mecke, who were also fairly close to that pace while wide, dropped back pretty badly. It is possible that both HF and BBB ran even better than it looks on paper.\"
 
The first sentence really says it all.  Set \"what appears\" to be a fairly quick pace?  Was is quick or not?  \"Even though he was off it?\"  Right, I mean how could he \"set what appeared to be a fairly quick pace\" if he wasn\'t on the lead (which he wasn\'t)?  WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?  And what does \"fairly quick\" mean?  How fast is that?  Greater minds will have to figure out what this means.  I just have no idea what you\'re talking about.  

Absolute gibberish.  \"Appears to be.\"  \"Fairly close.\"  \"It is possible...\"  You say NOTHING and you still have to qualify every single sentence.  I CHALLENGE you to write a clear sentence in English.   I mean ONE clear sentence!  If anything could destroy my appreciation for horse racing it\'s reading your posts.  Give it a rest for God\'s sake!  

I saw the race.  It looked like High Fly won.  It looked about the same \"on paper\" when I read about it on Sunday.  

HP

[beyerguy]

HP,

I\'m fairly certain no serious Derby Prep has been run 5 weeks before the Derby before.  I remember Stehpen Got Even trying to go to the Derby from the Beam (turfway race), but I didn\'t think he was a true contender anyway.  We are in unchartered territory here.  Further, how many three year olds have come to the Derby with 3 1 1/8 mile races in their last three starts as a 3yo?  I\'m not saying 4-1 is any bargain, just seems to dismiss him on the 5 week theory is a stretch.

[Saddlecloth]

classhandicapper wrote:

> Do Brisnet and Beyer use the same exact scale?

No, generally Bris is faster, until you get into the grade 1 classic type horses, the highest Bris I remember was 118.

[beyerguy]

CH,

They (BRIS, Beyer) do not use the same scale at all.  I have a pretty decent formula to put them on the same scale.  The BRIS figure would equate to around a 112 Beyer.

At 100 they are similar, then the farther away the BRIS number moves, the Beyer number moves even farther.



Post Edited (04-04-05 11:15)