Aqueduct 4/9

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Well it was certainly fast.

3YO,MSW:22.88, 46.06, 57.92, 1:10.73
4^,NW2X:23.86, 46.88, 1:11.39, 1:35.71
3YO,MSW:22.07, 45.07, 56.68, 1:08.95
4^,SAlw:24.08, 48.13, 1:12.64, 1:38.33, 2:04.49
3YO,MSW:21.89, 45.14, 57.35, 1:10.37
3YO,150K:22.62, 45.39, 1:08.80, 1:21.33
4^,NW1X:21.54, 43.84, 1:08.47, 1:22.01
3^,350K:21.59, 43.30, 1:07.48, 1:20.46
3YO,750K:23.13, 46.08, 1:09.84, 1:34.41, 1:47.16
4^,SNW1X:22.73, 45.47, 1:10.51, 1:37.50

The third race was very quick and it looks to have gotten quicker by the sixth race. The eighth certainly seemed off the chart. Those horses are good, but not that good.

The fourth and tenth races are mot easy to draw conclusions from. The former was a 10 mark starter allowance and nursing the distance had to be an issue with those animals. The latter for state bred animals and they look to have collapsed late. Still they ran fast early.

Theres two ways to look at the Wood. In either case Bellamy Road ran fast. In the first scenario you would say that it looks like he caught a very fast track. Going Wild couldn\'t have been right. Survivalist didn\'t figure to want longer ground and Scrappy T may have needed a race.

In the other scenario Bellamy ran Going Wild into the ground. Scrappy T though game had his heart chewed out and gave up second late to a horse that improving clunked up and Galloping Grocer ran his same race proving himself to be distance challenged.

Theres no doubt Bellamy is good. Hes run well in all his starts save one. Its interesting that the horse that beat him in the race he lost is Consolidator and that when headed Bellamy apparently chucked it in.

This horse is fast. I\'ve heard TGraph is leaning to Neg 4 and thats in the first scenario. Though fast, this horse was not seriously challenged in the Wood. He walked and he didn\'t walk because he ran a monster pace effort. Theres some very quick horses lining up for the Derby and I think every trainer out there now realizes this horse has to be engaged.

I dont think this is a Smarty Jones. At least the Pre Belmont Smarty. He\'s good, but he\'s got a pretty good achilles heel but they\'ll need to expose it.



Post Edited (04-10-05 22:52)

CTC,

\"In the other scenario Bellamy ran Going Wild into the ground.\"

IMO, that scenario is less likely because Scrappy T was up there with them and he hung around fairly well. I think it is much more likely that Going Wild was just terrible for whatever reason (though chasing that horse sure didn\'t help matters).  
 
\"Though fast, this horse was not seriously challenged in the Wood. He walked and he didn\'t walk because he ran a monster pace effort.\"

I agree that he wasn\'t challenged, but the pace was more or less in line with the final time. So if the final time was fast (which I think everyone agrees it was) the pace was also actually faster than average for 3YOs at this time of year.    

\"Theres some very quick horses lining up for the Derby and I think every trainer out there now realizes this horse has to be engaged.\"

Even though I think this horse is unlikely to duplicate his 119 Beyer/-4 TG at 10F with some pressure, on an honest racetrack, against a real Grade 1 field, I\'m not sure I would want it to be my horse that\'s the one to challenge him early in the Derby. I think it\'s going to be close to impossible to run hard with this horse, put him away, and win -if he stays even reasonably close to this sharp.  

I\'ll tell you one thing. If I trained High Limit, Rockport Harbor or another speed/presser type, I\'d give him some lessons on how to relax behind horses over the next few weeks - assuming they all make it that far.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Don\'t forget Consolidator.

To me its a no brainer. Beyer says the race was a 119. TGraph is leaning towards a Negative 4. The problem is the how fast was the track for the 8th and 9th? I\'m leaning much, much faster than Beyer thinks and you really can\'t two turn that number in my opinion. I believe this race was the horses last start before the Derby was it not? On two negatives running up, he\'s clearly the Derby favorite and the horse to take if the odds are good or the horse to beat if they are shallow. Regardless of odds, on Derby Day I think an early pace challenge makes him very vulnerable. Its more a sense than anything, but I think the pressure will be there and thats the way i\'m currently leaning.

I also remember Concerto.

[jimbo66]

Chuckles,

Your posts about Bellamy Road are eerily similar to your posts about Ghostzapper before the BC Classic, with the exception of the fact that you aren\'t questioning the distance for Bellamy Road.

Trying to beat the favorites is an admirable and smart thing to do, in my opinion, but the case you are making against Bellamy Road, is not strong.  The horse is just as impressive as Smarty Jones, and I dare say more impressive.  THe horses he beat in the Wood, while not top notch, were faster or even with all the horses in the Santa Anita Derby, except Sweet Catomine.  

If the number is -4, then Bellamy Road is 4 points faster than any other three year old.  And, the only horses that are within 4 points are Afleet Alex (sprint figure), Sun King (one turn figure), and Blues and Royals (one prep in Dubai).

That is a very very strong \"number edge\", in my opinion.

[jimbo66]

Just to clarify, that \"4 point edge\" does not include the numbers this weekend in the Santa Anita Derby or the Illinois Derby, as T-Graph hasn\'t calculated them.  I am using the numbers in the T-Graph Derby special last week, plus the -4 posted on this board as the \"unofficial\" Bellamy Road figure.  

But I would seriously doubt any horse in the SA Derby ran a \"0\" or better.

As for the Illinois Derby, I guess the figure for Greeley\'s Galaxy could be pretty good.  We\'ll have to see.

Speaking of the SA Derby, I would bet the best figure in that race has to go to Wilko.  Anybody see the ride that Frankie Dettori gave him.  Is there such a thing as \"ground loss\" records?  If there was, I would guess that for 1 1/8 mile races at Santa Anita, Dettori came close.  After the ridiculous rides by Jamie Spencer in the BC, especially on Powerscourt, I said I would never bet a European jockey in a US race.  But I thought Dettori would be the exception.  I was wrong.  He had tactical speed in a paceless race and he had a long long run into the first turn.  And he still screwed up.

After the race Dettori said the horse was dead game and would move forward off the race and proved he could stay the distance in the Derby.  Of course he proved it, he almost ran 1 1/4 in the 1 1/8 race on Saturday.

Sorry for the sour grapes, but as somebody who had Wilko to win and used both the 30-1 winner and 50-1 second place finisher in exactas and triples, needing Wilko 1st or 2nd to make a killing, that ride was tough to take...........

[P-Dub]

\"After the race Dettori said the horse was dead game and would move forward off the race and proved he could stay the distance in the Derby. Of course he proved it, he almost ran 1 1/4 in the 1 1/8 race on Saturday.\"

Thats one of the funnier lines I\'ve read around here.


Believe me, I feel your pain.

[jbelfior]

Jimbo 66:

RE: WILKO....perhaps you should not jump ship just yet. He probably needed a tough, but not gut-wrenching race off of just 1 start this year. Not sure they wanted him sent from the 10 hole to go :23 and :46 & change...that may have left them empty 4 weeks from now.

By AWESOME AGAIN, BC Classic winner, this guy just keeps coming. Interesting value play/use on May 7th at perhaps 25-1(no one plays the curse anymore)


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Delmar Deb]

fyi - he wore a double bar shoe in the SA Derby for the quarter crack that first appeared 2 days before the BC.

Had they not run in the Hollywood race in December and allowed the foot to heal for a few months without training and racing, he might have a chance on May 7th, given that his run Saturday looked like the perfect prep.

But with the quarter crack issue still before them - and the way the SA track has played this winter - I don\'t think I want to include him even at overlaid odds.

[HP]

I\'m with Joe.  None of this will make you feel better 66, but WILKO is interesting to me because he ran so much on grass as a 2yo.  

Maybe it\'s possible to get the elusive \"bottom\" by running more on grass, which may be less stressful, especially as a 2yo.  This is a training angle that I don\'t hear about as much as timing and preps.  Seems like an imaginative campaign could be set up with a fast 2yo to try to preserve him a bit with a few grass tries before moving onto the more punishing dirt races.  

PEACE RULES ran a bit on grass as a 2yo as well, but off the top of my head I don\'t recall too many (besides some Euros) who have done this up to the Derby.  It\'s possible that the Euros have other issues (inadequete or badly timed preps...).  

But Wilko ran like 40 times on grass as a 2yo...so he\'s...unique.  Should be at least 30-1 off this one...  That ground loss should do something for his figure...  If he does anything in the Derby you can come to my GRASS RACING PREPS FOR DERBY-BOUND 2YOs seminar.  

HP

[jimbo66]

Didn\'t know about the double bar shoe.  Certainly not a good thing...

HP/Joe B,

Once the anger subsides, you could be right, with the trip he got and the apparently disappointing 3rd place finish, he will be overlaid and could be worth including in gimmicks at 30-1 or higher.

p-Dub,

I am funnier after cashing, but thanks for the commiseration

[Michael D.]

wilko\'s dam has a dosage of infinity (16 int speed points only). the 4.0 requirement has been proven to be meaningless, but infinity? i don\'t think he will improve stretching out. saturday was his day, and dettori could not get the win with the best horse. he was only a path wider than the buzzard, and he\'s going to have to beat a lot more than the buzzard to win the derby. 75-1 fair value.

[jimbo66]

Michael,

I have strong opinion on whether fair value is 30-1 or 75-1 on Wilko, but I just watched the replay again and I disagree with you on the \"only one path wider\".

I guess we will see when the figures come out.

[TGJB]

Everything else aside, good thing they flew Dettori 5,400 miles to give them that ride, huh.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB wrote:

> Everything else aside, good thing they flew Dettori 5,400 miles
> to give them that ride, huh.
>
Yeah, that was a beauty

[Michael D.]

jim,
what do you mean about the paths? wilko was 1 path wider than the buzzard all the way around the track. gentleman\'s bet - i will give you 75-1. jerry might surprise me with a fast fig, then i might be short at a bad level. as of now, i don\'t like the horse though.