Going Wild with a Derby Rabbit?

[beyerguy]

I have read the thread.

I don\'t know CH, don\'t know what percentage of bets he hits.

\"2. The horse has a 20% chance of winning and you get 5-1. Let\'s say you are right 20% of the time on these. Assuming you make 10 $10 bets and you hit two (20% correct) you are EVEN.\"

This is wrong.  Whether CH hits 20% or not wasn\'t part of this statement.  If anyone, not just CH, hits 20% at 5-1, they are doing quite well.  THEY ARE NOT EVEN.  IF I bet $2 10 times on 5-1 shots, I have bet $20.  If I cash 2 of them, I am returned a MINIMUM of $24, and possibly $27.60.  It doesn\'t matter what form the payoff is posted, or even what game I am playing.  I\'m sure you know this by now, so I really don\'t know what the argument is about anymore.

[HP]

You just can\'t imagine, for the sake of the example, that 5-1 pays $10?  

As I said earlier, if it makes you happy, lower the odds in the example to 4-1.  

The WHOLE POINT of the example is that you actually have to hit a fair percentage of your bets to BREAK EVEN.  

AT 4-1, YOU HAVE TO HIT 20% OF YOUR BETS TO BREAK EVEN.

I bet you still don\'t know what I\'m talking about.

HP

[beyerguy]

I know what you are talking about, but 5-1 never, ever pays $10.  Why would I imagine that?

Of course, as you state, the lower the odds you demand, the higher percentage you need to hit.  CH said that initially, and you basically called him stupid in so many words.

He showed a sliding scale where the lower the odds, the higher win percentage he demanded.  That is what started this in the first place.  Talk about coming full circle.

[HP]

You\'re too much.  He said a lot of things.  You decided to pick this out.  I didn\'t call him stupid.  I\'m saying he can\'t win hitting a low % of his bets, unless he\'s only playing longshots (which is true).  You are focusing on this math and ignoring the larger context of what we were talking about.  Have it your way.  5-1 pays $12.  You\'re a sharp cookie.

HP,

I checked my results last night. 17% of all the horses I bet since 1996 won.

[HP]

17% is a fair clip.  I guess you can do whatever math it is to demonstrate that you\'ve got to hit an average of 4-1 there (assuming equal units bet) to break even, so your average is 5-1 or better.  If I\'m wrong shoot me.  Maybe you hit a lot of the 10-1\'s when you bet more on them.  That\'s not what you said, but what the hell...

In any case, you manage to say completely contradictory things, often in the same post.  I\'ve given plenty of examples above.  

Everyone else is probably tired of this by now.

HP