Going Wild with a Derby Rabbit?

Joe,

I\'m actually considering Bandini, but only if the price is high enough. I don\'t dislike any of the others. There are very minor things about each of them I\'m not crazy about and they will all probably be shorter in odds. That\'s all. If Bandini didn\'t have his training interrupted, I would have liked him in the Florida Derby and I would probably like him more here. I\'m a huge Pletcher fan and I think this is going to be a very good horse. Not sure he\'s going to be ready for this assignment Saturday, but at a certain price I might take a shot.



Post Edited (04-12-05 14:18)

[jimbo66]

HP,

As for 5-2 being a good bet, let me explain why.

I don\'t like Consolidator.  I thought the three year olds in California were not much and to me, the SA Derby proved that.  I would give 5-1 on a horse in the SA Derby making the Superfecta (not sure how many are running).  

I think Bandini is a little slow on the numbers compared to High Fly and I don\'t like the training setback and new schedule.  I thought the Fountain of Youth was a pretty unimpressive race.  High Fly ran much better in the Florida Derby.

That leaves Sun King.  I have to admit I am slightly biased against Sun King, having bet him mildly in the Champagne and then going \"all in\" on him in the BC where I just needed him to run 2nd to cash pretty well.  I am not convinced he wants 1 1/8 or longer, as he flattened out in the BC and also ran better in the 1 turn GS race, than the Tampa Bay Derby.  I know he wasn\'t asked to run much in the Tampa race, but still, the figure was a little slow for me.

High Limit ran a \"1\" as a two year old and then pairing it up in his first race this year, while on his wrong lead and appearing to run green in the stretch.  

I think he will run faster on Saturday, although not as fast as Chris thinks he will run.  Based on the probables, he figures on the lead and in the 1 path.  Consolidator will probably be off his flank, in the 2 path and Sun King will have to negotiate a path from behind. Plus, the race is run at Keenland, where being on the lead is usually a good thing.  

Even if he just improves 1 point, I think a \"0\" will likely be enough to win the race, the way it sets up.  

If I think he is 40-50% to win the race, then 5-2 becomes a prime bet for me.  If he goes off 2-1, I might bet less, but I will still hammer him.

[jimbo66]

Joe B,

If you think High Limit runs a Peace Rules type race and \"everybody else runs for 2nd\", why wouldn\'t you bet High Limit, considering he probably won\'t be the favorite, Sun King will be.

[jimbo66]

JB,

You mention that you have the field at 6-1, as well as High Limit at 13-1 and Rockport at 19-1.  Then you said that gives you the 4 most likely winners, in your opinion.

Just curious, who is your 4th?  You only mention the three.

[TGJB]

Blues and Royals. And I agree about SK in the BG, as I will say in ROTW.

[jbelfior]

Jimbo--

I think HL will be 3-1. I normally will not play to win at odds below 5-1. If I am going to do anything, it would be looking for value underneath.

I am not a SUN KING fan, so I would be getting value just by tossing him out of the exactas. I\'ve been doing lousy with the 3 yo preps, so I\'m probably better off just watching and observing. The real value comes in less than 4 weeks.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[HP]

Jimbo,

I guess that\'s where we part the ways.  For me, there is no such thing as a \"prime bet\" at 5/2.  I have to get a better return, even if I\'m playing Secretariat.  

Good luck.  

HP

[jimbo66]

HP,

Fair enough.  I will be the first to admit, I bet too many races and have too many \"prime bets\".  

For me, I have no price tolerance on a prime bet, it is based on my view of a horse\'s percentage chance to win versus his price with 2 minutes to post.  I calculate an ROI based on those two numbers and then make a bet, if the math works out to a pretty strong ROI.

Granted, my view of a horse\'s percentage chance to win is not exactly science, which is why this is gambling and not science.....

[miff]

Jimbo,

Those who have the game reduced totally to \"science\" can normally be found wandering about the BIG A looking for carfare.

miff,

\"Those who have the game reduced totally to \"science\" can normally be found wandering about the BIG A looking for carfare.\"

Someone actually still goes to the Big A?

:-)

[miff]

Class,

Not many for sure, when the weather gets real nice I go very often. Just 25 minutes from staten island.I mainly go to hang with some friends who are still involved in the  racing game.

Also a great excuse to go to Don Pepe restaurant on Lefferts Blvd.

[derby1592]

If you plan to take a stand against one or more of the faves in the exotics and you are looking for a longshot to help boost the price, you might want to consider the one horse that nobody has mentioned - Closing Argument. He has a live line and comes into the race fresh and other than High Limit looks to me like the horse in the race most likely to improve. The obvious negative is the hiccup in his training that caused him to miss the Fla Derby.

CA is already faster than Bandini and Bandini has already developed quite a bit this year and is not that likely to move forward for Pletcher in the 4th race of his 3yo campaign.

CA is a couple points slower than Consolidator but note that Consolidator has reacted to every one of his efforts in the past and his last (the big fig) was earned on a funky wet fast track. Of course, the Lukas horses always seem to run well when they ship in the spring from CA to Kentucky so you have to factor that in with this one.

CA is slower than Sun King but it looks like SK may have reacted to his big effort off the bench. Zito is certainly on fire and high on the horse and maybe you can excuse his last but it is usually not a good idea (from a betting standpoint) to make excuses for the likely favorite in the race.

Anyway, a small field but an interesting race nonetheless and it sounds like it will be the ROTW this week and likely to get a lot more discussion on the board prior to post time.

Good luck to all.

Chris

P.S. Keep in mind that the Blue Grass is probably the most prestigious race in America after the TC, BC and Travers; so, even though these guys all would love to win the Derby and don\'t want to see their horses peak too soon, don\'t expect them to send their horses out at 80% for this race (despite what they may say before or after the race). If that was the plan, then they would have chosen a different path to the Derby.

[richiebee]

Miff:

  I go to AQ from SI almost every Wednesday and Friday. My personal best from the VZ to AQ is 28 minutes. If you are doing it in 25, you are certainly in negative territory as far as your TG # goes. The ride home Friday is always a nightmare

  I\'ve never been to Don Pepe\'s on Lefferts. My friends from Brooklyn and Queens always insisted that New Park Pizza on Cross Bay is among the best in the City, but to me it is only slightly better than NYC Board of Ed cafeteria pizza.

[miff]

Rich,

Trust me, if you like Italian food(garlic especially) try Don Peps. Cash only, family style and you are bound to get a couple of tips from the owners and trainers that make up alot of the customers.

My 25 min (app) trip sometimes is a nightmare when the Belt gets backed up. I\'m usually not on my way back until 7/8 in the evening. Right after tax time(end April for me)Lets meet at the BIG A or BIG sandy in early May.

[big18741]

Chris

Both Keeneland and Oaklawn have Closing Argument running in their races.I read somewhere that he shipped to Oaklawn today.Not sure what the deal is.

Mr Sword is running in the BG and gets Bailey.He worked today at Keeneland in 57 and change and had the clocker raving.I guess Bailey is getting on all of the Paraneck junk now.

I think High Limit will be tough on Saturday also,but Consolidator is going to make him work in the lane.Lukas has him dead fit and he\'s won over the surface.I don\'t see the others being involved.