OPEN LENGTHS

[jbelfior]

BLOODHORSE article posed interesting question.

What happens when you have 4 major Derby preps where the margin of victory is 17.5, 9.5, 8 and 6 lengths?

ANSWER: When handicapping the Derby, you eliminate every horse who ran behind them.


Let the uninformed make your \"value.\" Stop trying to make a case for a horse/longshot  that has no shot.



Good Luck
Joe B.

[beyerguy]

That\'s a very good answer.  I don\'t see any of the runners up having enough excuses to make up those sort of lengths.  Hoping GG gets in, probably be the only value in the field.

[davidrex]

    joe,

only problem w/your equation is tg degenerates like me[and a whole bunch of folks on this board]just aren\'t satisfied w/taking the path most traveled.

i really don\'t know what to say or who to recommend to my friends,relatives,etc. why i\'m even reluctant to give out a derby horse to those few that ask my advice that i dont like for fear of passing on the winner.

we at this board want a logical non favoprite that no one on t.v. or print can come up with and we\'re not leaving until we get it!

[jbelfior]

I hear you...very true.

I just think too many of us try to make cases for horses that really do not belong.

I hate to do this, but I\'ll use GREATER GOOD as an example. I do not want to bash other people\'s opinions about this horse. He\'s a nice horse who may end up making me eat my words. (he would not be the first or the last). But I think this one is a real reach by those looking for the Derby sleeper.

Rather than try to make a case for the hopeless (horses that don\'t belong ), let\'s use the hopeless (the uninformed who do not use numbers, do not watch and re-watch preps, etc) to make cases for those that can contend according to handicapping methods that we use all year long. What better example than FUNNY CIDE at 12-1 or THUNDER GULCH at 24-1.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Eliminating Open Length finishers. I have to assume you mean from the win spot Jbel:

Wood: Probably no decision to make.

Arkansas: Greater Good had an excuse, Andromedas Hero is slow but improving and is a bit of a head case. Flower Alley is not a bad horse

Bluegrass: Most dangerous race of all to eliminate trailers.

Illinois Derby: No decision to make there as well.

The issue is speed:

Bellamy just ran a .46 on a fast track. Prior to that he tossed a .47 in and got worn down by Consolidator. He has a one turn mile of .45.3 at Hallandale

Sun King just turned in a poorish race and Prado got reamed out. He chose this horse over Noble Causeway. I think hes much more prominent Derby day, but have noted his quick 4 marks are in one turn races.

High Limit will be equipped with blinkers and just ran a 46.85 on a much slower surface. I think the rating experiment is over.

Consolidator ran a .46 in the San Felipe on a fast track too and though I think hes a bit slower Lukas has said enough to convince me he\'s going.

High Fly has run consistently low pace marks. His last was a .46. Though I think he\'ll settle about a length or two behind the pacers.

Rockport Harbor hasn\'t paced below 47 at two turns, but hes one I get the feeling certainly can. Watching him in the Lexington will probably be the key to his pace potential. He\'s certainly a front end type in his Past Performances.

Going Wild may not get in. The question is did he get discouraged chasing Bellamy or was he not right that day. I subscribe to the latter. His last win was on the lead. I think if he draws in Lukas sends him with Consolidator right on his heels.

The Key is gonna be how fast do they go, how far do they let the pace leader slip off. Bellamy has had it all his own way on pace the races hes won. Rocky doesn\'t know what its like to trail. The trailing experiment for High Limit is over, its Peace Rules or Bust. And I\'m not even sure one of these three will have the lead. Theres some horses in here that will want to wing free. It could get interesting.

[Blind Switch]

Quandry:

When a horse wins by 17.5 lengths and the timer stops, is the position of the following runners frozen at that precise moment to indicate beaten lengths or does the clock keep ticking to see how much ground the others make up AFTER the winner crosses.

With regard to finish positions, we know the race is to the wire but what about with regard to beaten lengths?

For instance lets say Survivalist was in fact 17.5 lengths behind when Bellamy Rd crossed the wire, but how much SLOWER was he in getting to the wire? What if he finished much faster than the winner within those 17.5 lengths and theoretically closed that margin to say 9 or 10 lengths? How would one know unless every horse in every race was timed to the wire.

[jbelfior]

CtC2--

Yes, I meant the win spot. After COAX ME CHAD behind SWALE in 1983, anything can run 2nd.

Very tough to do a pace scenario. PEACE RULES crawled on the pace when wiring the Blue Grass, then stepped up to run some quick fractions on Derby day.

My opinion is class horses can step up and run whatever you ask them to. Others, when faced with a pace scenario that other classier animals can handle, fold up. Perhaps this is what happened to CONSOLIDATOR in the Blue Grass. I emphasize the word \"perhaps.\"



Good Luck,
Joe B.