"The Great Wall of Zito,"

[richiebee]

Flushed:

  Good points. I disagree w/ regards to HiLimit. I think statistics show that there are two Frankels: The one who sets up shop at Sar and Bel, and the one who saddles entries at the Derby and Breeders Cup. Frankel the former is more reliable.

  IMO, HL is only a traffic factor in the last 1/4 mile.

  Nobody out there, with all of your stored info, has been able to tell me how many entries in the Derby had only FOUR previous lifetime starts.

  And I know I\'m repeating myself, but HL is an OWNER DRIVEN entry. I\'m sure Frankel would have liked to regroup a bit after the BG.

[flushedstraight]

re: Frankels stats

out of last 4 years, won a BC race 3 times, not to mention 2 classic placings; out of last 5 years in derby; 2 seconds, a third and a fourth. I only see one Frankel, it\'s just a matter of time until he breaks thru in the derby as well, he hasn\'t had too many at bats.

The only four starts on High Limit is discouraging but another Frankel in the money derby finish will be welcome if he is disregarded at the windows after the \"disapointment\" in the BG. It seems impossible to ignore such a fast horse from this barn if he\'s a price. Ramon is more than capable and will not attract attention. I\'m assuming he\'ll drift to double digit odds and be 5th choice at worst. My main angle is that common knowledge believes his BG loss was due to not having his own way on the lead (\"he needs the lead\" \"he can\'t be rated\") while the truth may be he wasn\'t close to being primed for that race, while Bandini certainly was.
 

Didn\'t Frankel put 1st time blinks on Empire Maker when he took a big step forward in the Fla Derby?

[jbelfior]

Flushed Straight--

Good point. It\'s amazing how the masses can forget so easily.

Ability to negotiate a 1 1/4 a huge ? Not a bad play, however, if you get 10-1 or better on him May 7th.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Wrongly]

Richiebee, the last horse to win the Derby with 4 starts prior was Exterminator in 1918.  I have no idea how many horses have been entered under those conditions.

[flushedstraight]

How about stats on 5 starts prior (Bellamy Road, Bandini)?

High Fly worked 5F in 1:06.60 today? ugh.

[Ill-bred]

Recent horses with four lifetime starts prior to the Derby (finish):

Corporate Report  (9)
Strodes Creek (2)
Ski Captain (14)
Indian Charlie (3)
Stephen Got Even (14)
Curule (7)
War Chant (9)
Trippi (11)
Congaree (3)
Tapit (9)

Alan-a-Dale (1902) and Exterminator (1918) both won it w/ four lifetime starts.

[richiebee]

Ill Bred:

  Thank you. The results are about what I expected.

[Wrongly]

Flushedstraight, their are a bunch of winners with 5 starts prior to the Derby.  
Since 1983:
Fu-Peg, Grindstone, Winning Colors.
Gato Del Sol - 4 starts
Funny Cide, Monarchos, Silver Charm, Sunday Silence all had 6 starts.

[Bally Ache]

There\'s a race tomorrow fellas & one of the main Derby contenders is running.  Since you like to look things up, see how many 2yrolds you can find that ran a 1 1/8 in 1:48:4.  If that\'s too daunting, see how often the Remsen has been run in less than 1:50.

I don\'t know who\'s going to win the Derby but I\'d sure be willing to bet that Rockport Harbor finishes ahead of High Fly.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee wrote:

. Everyone seems to agree that
> Bailey will find a prime piece of real estate-- the question
> might be how much he has to spend to get there.
>

High fly will definitely get first run on the pacers. To me its merely a question of not having stamina aptitude to hold off horses wanting more ground. I\'m having trouble predicting a pace scenario that works against High Fly from any post. The issue will be breaking clean. If he can do that hes gonna be in the garden spot. I suppose he could break from 20 and get hung out. I don\'t see it happening though...hes plenty quick to break, track and tuck in before the turn. He\'s watchacall \"fast rateable\" Its very early, but I can already hear the old refrain \"Dream Trip\".  I agree properly paced horses make their trips.

[richiebee]

Bally Ache:

  You\'ve read it here before because I\'ve said it here before-- maybe Rocky\'s Remsen was TOO fast? Too far, too fast as a 2YO?

  In the Remsen he beat the recently exposed and mismanaged NY bred Galloping Grocer. In his last race he was beaten by Greater Good.

 I like this horse. He has character. Unfortunately, it seems like his destiny has been determined by his Derby hungry owner and not his more prudent trainer.

[Bally Ache]

Remember, I didn\'t say R. Harbor will win Derby.  I just think there is (or was) significant upside there.

As opposed to High Fly, who is what he is. I think he\'s getting too much attention here.  He may win the race (hell, Zito won it with Go For Gin somehow)but, if he does, it won\'t be because of some crafty ride by Bailey.

If Bailey really wants to help this horse he might pick him up and carry him from the 1/8 pole.