Bellamy Road

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

If you favor the notion that Bellamy may not be as fast the last large win has indicated, its still hard to argue against the notion that he finished well. Even on that propelling surface, it was a very energy efficient race. However, you have to factor that he was not pressed at any point in the race. (Some think its because he was so fast he blitzed his competition, but thats another issue.) But the question is what is his distance affinity in a race if he encounters pace challengers?, and to anwswer that maybe a glance at his pedigree is not a bad idea.

His Sire, Concerto, was definitely a very effective 9 mark horse and twice raced at 10 marks. Winning a stakes and finishing 2nd to highweighted Awesome Again by 3 lengths, in a Grade II.

http://breeding.bloodhorse.com/newsronline/pdfs/concerto.pdf

As a sire he\'s been very popular in Venezuela and he does have a Grade I winner there. In the United States his sire record is spotty until Bellamy Road, but he is a relatively young sire.

I can\'t conclude his sire results are any reason to be further inclined to believe he\'s about to humble the Kentucky Derby. But what of his Dam side? The first three dams direct tail female are unremarkable. Its not until you go all the way back to Arabian Dancer and Ten Cents a Dance that the pedigree makes your eyebrows raise. The reason is theres some very nice Phipps blood that far back and some exceptional producer records. For me however, its a little remote.

 http://www.pedigreequery.com/bellamy+road

Deputed Testamony did win the Preakness and Haskell and he was a bay like Bellamy, (who is a dark one), so my take is that Bellamy is favoring his female family a little more as his pop was a chestnut. Additionally, Deputed liked to scoot if my memory serves and that seems to be Bellamy\'s modus operandi. Deputed has a good racehorse and a very useful Maryland sire, but he\'s not come up with anything that could really go on by my unscientific analysis. Bellamy could be taking after his grand dad and reaching back for some of that remote Phipps blood also I suppose. It could also be 10 marks are going to be a challenge under pressure. It looked easy in the Wood for a reason. It was.



Post Edited (05-01-05 19:10)

[BitPlayer]

CtC -

In addition to running in the two 10 furlong races you mention, Concerto finished up the track in the 1997 Derby.  His sheet is in the archives.

[jbelfior]

I know that I am showing a bit of my age when I refer to some old time Derby winners but the last time so and so beat nothing, and his pedigree was not suitable, and he was never pressured at any point in his races, his name was SEATTLE SLEW.

Now BELLAMY can end up with the same amount of fame as WALT BELLAMY, but he can also be a star in the making. Not sure anyone else in this field has that kind of potential at this point in time.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'m not sure you\'re not right about the weak competition Slew faced as a 3YO Jbelf. Seattle Slew caught a pretty weak Derby field. I don\'t think anything hardly went on and accomplished much after that. A horse named Jatski won the Travers after missing the Derby that year.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2005/derby_history/derby_charts/years/1977.html

Slew also had a more extensive 2 YO campaign and was undefeated when he won the Derby.

I think the difference is Slew pretty much had proven he could take a pace challenge. You\'re gambling (at short odds) this other guy can. Additionally, theres competition this year that Slew didn\'t have to face. Bellamania is a decent horse, but he\'s not alone.

Zito\'s getting cocky on those two wins. I understand that and this isn\'t an Arazi coming in on one race and a knee procedure. However, I think hes probably misconstrued the Wood. What if its a Beyer 110 or 112 rather than a 120? I\'m not enamored with the pace scenario or this horses workouts at Churchill. I just think the value is beating him is all. He\'s gonna tie up a lot of money.

On the other hand, hes shown enough to prove hes a good horse and he could do it. Goldberg is a favorites kind of bettor. He did pick FuPig to win the Derby. Even a blind squirrel gets lucky now and then, especially backing favorites. If he goes off at 4-1 or 9-2 maybe I reconsider.

[gowand]

ctc:  Please don\'t come on the forum on Saturday night if BR gets beat and tell us how you took a stand against the horse from day 1 and how everyone else thought he was a superhorse.  Every post I see from you about this horse says he has all these question marks but on the other hand he is a good horse and \"he could do it.\"  If he loses you will say \"I took a stand\" and if he wins you will say \"I thought pace pressure would get to him\" BUT I did think he was a good horse and could win the race.  This same statement can be made with regard to any of the horses who figure to be on or near the lead. If you are going to take a stand then do it.

[jimbo66]

Gowand,

Chuckles has already drafted two separate posts for Saturday night.  One, if Bellamy wins the race, the other if he loses.

He can just cut, paste and send, right after the race is over.

[miff]

A friend of mine at Churchill Downs advised me that many horsemen on the backside at CD are at a total loss as to what Richey is doing with his training regimen for Afleet Alex.Richey is being second guessed all over the place. AA is not a robust horse and has not physically matured that much from last year.

The \"wise guys\" are going to toss AA, I hear, based on the Richey training regimen.It\'s hard to imagine a trainer being that wrong about a horse he has trained from day one.Tough decision for me, I know this horse can really run(as you all do)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Bellamy is a dangerous horse on the front end. Theres been a lot like him. Spend a Buck, Slew City Slew, King Glorious, Love of Mom. I just don\'t think he\'s gonna be successful in the scenario for a number of reasons.

My bet will be to beat him. If he crawls up to 4-1/9-2, I may put him for the minimum on top of a select group to cover. But I won\'t consider that winning the Derby and won\'t count it in my overall statistics. I\'ll count my major play as my Derby bet.

Thats a stand. If you think 2 horses have a 60% and 20% chance to win respectively is it error to cover with the one you discount? I don\'t think so.

[TGJB]

CTC-- see if you can make a post without using the words \"I\", \"me\", etc., more than once. If you want a model for serious, intelligent posts that are informative and don\'t antagonize everybody, do a search for \"Derby 1592\".

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Bellamy is a dangerous horse on the front end. Theres been a lot like him. Spend a Buck, Slew City Slew, King Glorious, Love of Mom. He may not be successful in the scenario for a number of reasons.

The logical bet is to beat him. If he crawls up to 4-1/9-2, It may be logical to key him for the minimum on top of a select group to cover. But no one would consider a cover bet winning the Derby and it would be disingenuous to count in in overall statistics. The major play is the play you spend the most money on. That is a handicapper\'s Derby bet.

Thats a stand. If a handicapper thinks there are 2 horses that have a 60% and 20% chance to win respectively is it error to cover with the one he/she discounts? What do you think?

[davidrex]

     ctmc,

 you just sucked up to the soup nazi and from here on the \'m\' will no longer appear in your title.


      PARTYpokerON !

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

lol

\"Soup Nazi\"?

lyao

It would appear that term has made itself known somewhere in the recent past. A new chain of restaurants the diners may think.
TGJB likes the third person. Posters should not consider that a terrible imposition. Besides, to properly award a title like magnificent, a handicapper should first have to win 4 Derbies in a row.

[Holy55]

Bellamy Road\'s 1st career start 8/3 at Delaware Park he was 4th 2.5 lengths behind after the opening quarter mile, he took over pretty quickly and won easily. Obviously the competition wasn\'t there and maybe he had a bad start which placed him 4th early. But he did not have the lead that day and still won easy. I\'m not 100% sure he can\'t rate off of SC in the Derby if he has to.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Holy55 wrote:

> Bellamy Road\'s 1st career start 8/3 at Delaware Park he was 4th
> 2.5 lengths behind after the opening quarter mile, he took over
> pretty quickly and won easily. Obviously the competition wasn\'t
> there and maybe he had a bad start which placed him 4th early.
> But he did not have the lead that day and still won easy. I\'m
> not 100% sure he can\'t rate off of SC in the Derby if he has
> to.

Holy, one way of looking at that first race might be that it was Bellamania\'s first and he wasn\'t ready for the break. Another might be that he is not a first class quick stepping horse and it took him 4 marks in .46 to acquire the lead. (He is 17 hands) In every race thereafter he has rocketed to the front. Granted they were longer distances and he has broken from very good holes to acquire the lead in all those subsequent races.

Factoring Bellamania\'s ability to rate in this race is a big part of the puzzle and you could be correct that he finds himself unable to rate off the speed and perhaps unable to catch them.

[miff]

I have tapes of his GPrace and the Wood.He does not possess \"quick\"speed out of the gate. He\'s a big long striding horse who seems to need a few strides before getting settled into his very smooth rythm.He doesn\'t look like rank speed at all.