Speed is Speed, or is it?

[HP]

Silver,

Okay.  I\'ll take you word for it.  I still don\'t know what argument I lost.  

HP

Saddle,

\"I think I was the one who posted frustration that form cycles and that methodology does not seem to get talked about here all that often.\"

I would like more of that also. I\'ve never found too much of value.

The one thing I like to bet against is a horse that has had a long tough campaign and then throws in a clinker late in the season. As a general rule, the public tends to be \"somewhat forgiving\" of a slightly sub par performance if the horse\'s overall record is strong and fairly consistent. I tend to agree with that. However, the public tends to be just as forgiving late in the season after a long tough campaign. I think a lot of those horses are just \"done\" for the year and less likely to bounce back with a top effort. Sometimes you can pick up on that and know which ones to toss out. They are a good bet against - especially in high level stakes because some of them get bet off their reputations for several races.

Other than that, I think most horses tend to come back off a layoff a little short (how much depends on the trainer and circumstances) and then trend faster for a couple of races before peaking for awhile and then heading south.

For me, the pattern stuff gets very difficult unless the figure moves are fairly substantial and I am fairly sure that other factors didn\'t impact the final times. I could never imagine myself making a play off a 1/2 point or 1/4 point move like the Ragozin\'s do.

I\'m all ears on this.




 


 

[TGJB]

This is what we know: that in 3 races they ran certain fractions, and certain raw final times (and even conclusions about that are dependent on the teletimer,wind, and track speed. And they have had some wind down there recently).

Considering the above, and sample size, it\'s a little silly to draw firm conclusions as to cause and effect, no?

I would be interested in knowing whether Beyerguy has done any large population studies about fractions as they relate to final time.

CH-- be smart. If you are not going to address the above DIRECTLY, leave it alone.

[Saddlecloth]

HP,

I am always willing to post before the race and dont believe I have ever redboarded a \"i had it\" after the fact, doing so is a waste of time.  I dont think there is anything wrong with post race analysis of what happened during the race, if its done right.

I think pace is a factor in handicapping just as weight can be, trainer intention, post position, etc etc.  Obviously next to final time I hold pace in very high regards, much so then a one turn 3 wide trip.  I mean Woke Up Dreaming certainly got the perfect trip last week dispite having to be in the 3-4 path, but the numbers I use dont have that componet built in.  

The biggest knock I had going in on that horse was the sketchy injury riddled career and the big figure jump in the last race, not the type of stuff I bet back at 7/5!

HP,

There were more than a few times that I expressed views about certain horses being better or worse than their figures due to post race pace analysis and it lead to good bets by giving you an opportunity to bet against an overrated horse that lost etc...  

I\'ve also tossed a few horses or suggested that certain horses were live at a price due to a pre race pace analysis that was subsequently validated (even though I didn\'t bet some of them and said so).

Unfortunately, some people understandably weren\'t particluarly receptive to \"my\" subjective opinions and others thought I was suggesting that some final time figures were wrong and/or should be adjusted to reflect those subjective views (which I wasn\'t doing).

This is stuff is not provable like a math problem because there are no exact formulas. It\'s a matter of looking at various paces, figures, results, etc... over time. If you are not receptive to me, that\'s fine. But there are guys like beyerguy, silvercharm, and others that seem to use the TG figures in combination with pace analysis very well.

[HP]

To me, a post-race pace analysis \"done right\" would lead somewhere specific in the future.  This never happens here.  Looking for these links between races viz-a-viz pace is the proverbial needle in the haystack.  On this board, when the pace analysis runs out of gas here we go with the track bias and the whole other litany of stuff that might or might not affect the race or happen again next out.  They know they don\'t want to look at TG, but they can\'t really provide an alternative view that\'s either as clear or as useful.  

Even if you do a \"post-race analysis\" in a somewhat useful way:

1)  You can\'t really say for sure that the same circumstances won\'t come up again;

2)  you can\'t be sure if even the horse you are focused on will use the same tactics;

3)  you have no clue as to whether the other, new horses in the race will change their tactics and start the dominoes falling in another direction.

For me, the meat and potatoes are the final times and the resulting TG figures.  If others want to analyze how pace affected those figures or whatever, happy trails.  If I ever see a blow-by-blow example of this worked out before the race where it results in a decent priced mutuel I will be the first to stand and applaud.  For all of this longwinded crap I\'ve read precious few CONCISE pre-race pace analysis (or other non-TG analysis) that led to a CLEAR PLAY, let alone a BIG WINNER.  Judging by the results of what I see posted on this board I do just as well looking at the sheets and not even buying the Form...

Good luck to all.

HP

[HP]

Class,

Look, given the amount of stuff you post here (you are on almost EVERY thread), you really don\'t provide much specific insight, pre- or post-race.

These Calder races are a perfect example.  You\'ve posted A LOT and said NOTHING.  And you REDBOARDED an entire race after Jimbo pointed out that post-race pace handicapping abounded here...  Someday these insights of yours on your methods and the Calder races will come home to roost SOMEWHERE, and I\'m sure you\'ll let us know when...

I don\'t want to offend you, I\'d rather just give up...  

HP

[jimbo66]

Couldn\'t agree more with what HP wrote.

Let\'s face it, we aren\'t betting on horses for some altruistic betterment.  Any analysis should lead to a conclusion that is some type of \"bet on\" or \"bet against\".  I think a lot of people on this board have an open mind and if there is a way to complement ground loss speed figures and form cycles analysis,  with some type of pace analysis, then so be it.  Bring it on.  But before the race, not after the race, and not an endless post race diatribe which doesn\'t lead to a conclusion.

It doesn\'t have to be a major race.

Class, are you betting tomorrow?  Pick a track and analyze a race, breaking it down.  Point out a \"pace play\" or a figure play made better by a pace advantage.

[jimbo66]

By the way HP, you didn\'t lose any argument on Woke Up Dreaming versus Lost in the Fog.

If they meet up later this year, I would gladly take Lost in the Fog in a matchup bet.  I am guessing that after the T-Graph figures come out for Saturday, many other players would also.

TGJB,

\"Considering the above, and sample size, it\'s a little silly to draw firm conclusions as to cause and effect, no?\"

Yes. I agree.

I think the conclusions and results were simply consistent with views that were developed over many years of seeing the exact same sort of thing. That\'s why \"I\" seem so confident.

\"I would be interested in knowing whether Beyerguy has done any large population studies about fractions as they relate to final time.\"

I don\'t know about beyerguy, but having worked with them for a very long time I think the complexities of both making accurate pace figures and then defining a formula that covers all the possible pace combinations within a race makes the task of proving anything very difficult except in the extreme situations. Plus, I also think that non pace issues like pressure/loose impact all this.

Where you and I probably part ways a little is that I think there are smaller impacts in less extreme situations that are worth at least trying to measure. If I had to guess I think you catch some of that in your variants when you break out races a little.

I also think there are sub plots within a race that are very easy to prove if you pay attention.

I\'m probably stretching my luck here by getting so deep into this, but I hope you will tolerate me this one last time because IMHO it has HUGE VALUE from a betting perspective and making final time figures and is fairly easy to prove via observation.

Extreme example to make the point:

If Seattle Slew set a pace that was average for him and he was dueling with a Grade 3 horse, the pace of the race might be in perfect sync with the final time because it was SS\'s race all the way. SS would not be impacted. However, SS\'s average pace would destroy the average Grade 3 horse because it\'s way too fast for him. There are subplots within races. So for example if SS draws off by 10 and you were only expecting him to draw off by 7 against that Grade 3 horse, 3 lengths of it are \"usually\" related to SS\'s pace killing off the other horse and not SS running a new top.  Pace figures clarify that kind of thing easily!
 

[Michael D.]

IMO, don six would have run a faster TG figure if he was alone on the lead. IMO, madcap escapade might have run a slower figure if she had to run faster to get the lead. she will rarely have to run faster to get the lead against fillies and mares, but if she tries the BC, things could be different. i do not know if WUD or LITF would have run faster or slower given different pace scenarios. those are two gritty animals - the kind that might not be affected all that much by pace pressure.

[Saddlecloth]

I cant tell if everyone is jumping on me or not, I post about races, pace comes up here and there.

I can tell you lost in the fog is certainly a better horse the woke up dreaming, and given that sheet what are the chances baffert can even keep him together till the big race.

That being said, I think if WUD ran back to his race saturday and lost in the fog was in the race there would have been a real tussle going on for each of them, and given LITF would be 2/5 and WUD probably at least 5/1 I would take that wager if all signs were that he was healthy.  Is that ok post race analysis?  I am trying to figure out what boundary I am crossing here?

jimbo,

I have done a pre race pace analysis many times, but I do tend to only bet on big stakes (results are better). however, many of my plays have absolutely nothing to do with pace. It\'s only relevant when it\'s relevant. I can\'t make it relevant if it\'s not. It\'s one tool in an arsenal.

The obvious post race conclusion about LITF for example is that he earned a Beyer of 114 and a TG of \"whatever\". If he races in a field with horses that are earning figures like that coming off legitimate trips I\'ll happily bet against him. He\'s not a 114 horse right now. He\'s a 114 horse when he gets loose against garbage cans in a moderate pace. That\'s worth knowing whether it leads to a bet or not.

Whatever Beyer the two duelers in the Smile ran, they are better than that. If they are spotted in a field where the pace will be more average, I will evaluate them as if they can run faster than they did in the Smile. If that leads to a bet so be it, if not I am still better off knowing what really happened.

[jimbo66]

Saddlecloth,

I don\'t know if anybody else is, but I am not jumping you.  Unless you are really hot - and a woman.

The thing is that the Calder race on Saturday is a really bad example of a race that pace handicappers should be jumping all up and down and discussing.  After the race, we are discussing the pace in those races.  Pace would NOT have led you bet Woke Up Dreaming.  

My point, ignored to date by Class, is that PACE HANDICAPPING IS USELESS AFTER THE FACT.  POINT OUT SOMETHING BEFORE A RACE GOES OFF IF YOU WANT TO PROVE A POINT.

Class and the recently absolute Clown, always dissect these major races AFTER THE RACE and usually pinpoint pace as the reason a race went a certain way.  Not only is it redboarding, but it is useless.  

On the contrary, at least the ROTW and some other posters on this board analyze a race before it happens and lay out reasons why a horse might be a good play. Those posts are often wrong and so be it.  But at least it isn\'t redboarding.  

[Saddlecloth]

OK,

But for future races, given these two horses, I think one could compete with the other, even knowing the final figure probably says one is not fast enough (meaning if LITF goes 43.4 he does not go 109.1).  So in reviewing the post race analysis from the last race I believe it COULD make me money in the future.  Anyways, thats alot of what I do.  Thanks for the dime.