By The Way...

[TGJB]

The single most interesting RUMOR I heard at Saratoga last weekend was this, and I heard it from two independent sources:

Supposedly, a certain very rich and successful owner had enough after a certain trainer had a very successful first week of the meet. She hired her own private detectives to do surveillance around that trainer\'s barn, and he hasn\'t done as well since. No idea whether it\'s true.

[HP]

TGJB,

There\'s an article in today\'s Daily News that touches on this...vaguely.  Should be an interesting weekend.  HP

TGJB,

Is this another x-files episode?

Seriously, I obviously have no idea what\'s going on with this, but it seems pretty obvious to me that this particular trainer ran almost all his first string horses during the first few weeks and has since been running the second string. Granted, a very high percentage of the first string fired big shots and the remainder has been on the dull side, but in a low percentage game (like winning races) these kinds of streaks are well within the range of normal (see Crist\'s recent article in the DRF). That\'s especially true when there\'s an obvious difference between the early stock and the late stock.  

The first string is about to start running again. If they all go dull, that would demonstrate something to me that is worth discussing. But it would not shock me if he starts winning again or his horses at least start firing big efforts again.

I know I am going to get trashed again for coming to the defense of someone that might be cheating, but that\'s not the goal or intent.

I\'m simply pointing out that the default position here tends to be the assumption of guilt and giving creditworthiness to every story/theory that fits the \"desire to prove\" that trainers \"X, Y, and Z\" are cheating.

It doesn\'t matter who is right.

It just seems counter productive (certainly from a handicapping perspective) to talk about these theories and then watch the same trainers continue to win. When/if they get caught for the \"main things\" that may going on and not just the incidental positives, we\'ll all be better off for sure. IMHO though, there\'s a small degree of paranoia built into the thinking because the passion to catch these guys is so high.

OK I\'ll go back into hibernation on this.


 


 

[jimbo66]

HP,

Not sure if I read the right article, but the one I read mentions that Pletcher has gone cold.  No reasons given, direct or implied.  Very vanilla and not interesting at all.  Is there something that I didn\'t see?

Class,

I already regret responding to your posting, as I am falling into the trap of responding to something that was only posted to generate a negative response.  But I will give it to you anyway.  Free speech for everybody, but I am not sure why you would consider yourself any kind of authority on this topic.  You don\'t bet many or any races (by your own admission).  You view horse racing for the entertainment value and are just a fan (more power to you for showing this kind of discipline).  So, you also are not seeing the circumstantial evidence that many of the rest of us see.  The huge move up in figures from guys like Pletcher.  He is high profile, but to me the guys out west are much worse.  See what happens when Mullins, O\'Neill or Mitchell claim horses?  They suddenly show early speed they never hinted at, and run 4 point new tops, first time out.  Did anybody see Bruce Headley\'s comments in the DRF, obviously directed at Mullins and O\'Neill?  He said he was very curious to see how several horses in the Pacific Classic would run, considering the 24 hour detention barn.   The guy has been around awhile, and this is what he does for a living.  I give him some credibility and if you were smart, you would too.

The problem is that we need more cases of \"proving it\" and less circumspection and circumstantial evidence........

[HP]

Jimbo,

Yes the \"vanilla\" article is the one.  Now I found it interesting because it was yet another recap of the \"vanilla\" point of view regarding this particular trainer.  Even with a pending NYRA review on his latest violation, the press (and some posters on this board) just can\'t get enough \"vanilla!\"  I posted before the Saratoga meet that NOTHING would interfere with this guy\'s program because it just seems no one wants to know about it.  I was right, but SOMETHING seems to be happening, given the different results he is getting this year.  

As for Class, it is silly to post a response, but this whole \"second string\" theory is just another load of crap, since it didn\'t seem to affect him in 2004, or in 2003.  

You would think this particular trainer had photographs of every member of the \"racing press\" in compromising positions.  More vanilla, please!  

HP

jimbo,

I don\'t consider myself an authority on the subject and despite my best effort you are obviously not understanding what I am saying. I never claimed that trainers aren\'t cheating. That\'s just what people like to accuse me of.

I\'m arguing that IMO there\'s a level of paranoia and x-files-like thinking here at times on the subject.

IMO, the \"assumption\" that TP is going bad lately because of some private investigator snooping around is silly. Even if the story of the investigator is true (and from the post I don\'t even think that\'s 100% certain), it\'s so darn premature to associate this with his downturn it\'s preposterous. The guy had 2 bad weeks with his second string horses for crying out loud. A few bad weeks now and then when you are a 25% winner is normal.  

I don\'t want to re-argue this, but this is not the first time something like this has come up and then the trainer went on another tear. That should tell you something. People are so anxious to prove he\'s cheating, the thinking and stories get silly sometimes. When they all get caught for whatever they are doing it will be great, but what\'s the story going to be if Ashado wins big again and Flower Alley runs another huge race for at least 9F?  Did they sneak them into another barn and the investigator missed that?

[jimbo66]

Funny how Pletcher didn\'t have that \"obvious\" first string/second string problem last year.

He was redhot for 5 weeks,then finally cooled off on Travers Day and the last week.  

Maybe he only had one string last year?

[HP]

Jimbo,

Believe me, if Ashado and Flower Alley run up the track that won\'t make a difference either...  HP

HP,

That\'s not true at all, but obviously it would depend on how they lost.

If Ashado runs a weak 3rd, that would perk my interest.

If Flower Alley gets beat by Roman Ruler or Bellamy Road runs a -5 it won\'t tell me anything because Roman Ruler just finished beating FA and we know there\'s at least some chance Bellamy Road gets loose and runs another big race. If FA runs great for 9F and then tires in the last 1/8 it won\'t tell me anything either because he\'s really untested at 10F other than the fast paced Derby where everyone collapsed. If he\'s finished after prompting a slow pace for 6F, that would tell me something.

I find this conversation silly.

When you start talking about multi-month changes in percentages and clear form reversals, that\'s one thing. But it\'s pretty obvious that if a guys wins at a 25% clip overall it\'s going to be made up short term periods where he goes 10-20 and others where he goes 0-20 without it meaning anything....unless of course you want it to mean something very prematurely for 99th time despite being repeatedly wrong when he goes on his next tear.

Just catch the guy doing whatever he\'s doing. There\'s no need to create a sequel to the x-files.

[HP]

\"Just catch the guy doing whatever he\'s doing. There\'s no need to create a sequel to the x-files.\"

Earth to Class,

They HAVE caught the guy.  Several times.  Positive test results for banned substances.  No question about their legality or illegality either.  They are illegal substances.  What part of this is not penetrating your brain?  Todd Pletcher.  His horses have tested positive.  For banned substances.  Several times (Florida a few years ago AND currently in New York, where he will have to face the music from the standard-bearers at NYRA...when they get around to it this fall).  

I can\'t understand why you refuse to acknowledge or accept these facts.  If you need more info, why don\'t you contact NYRA about their pending action viz-a-viz Todd Pletcher?      

HP

[kingcong39]

I am new here but have been reading these boards faithfully for the past year or so. I agree with HP and others that if you have working eyeballs and an active brain, you can rather easily deduce which trainers have the magic juice available and at the ready.
Class, I understand what you are saying about hot and cold streaks and I can see where it can be read into a kind of defense of TP, but you have to at least admit that him having 3 horses die within a week I believe it was did raise some eyebrows, especially considering they all just ran ridiculous new top (possible?) efforts.

As an aside, would anybody else be surprised besides me to see Lava Man run well if he does come for the JCGC? I am not buying this heat exhaustion excuse and I am expecting an announcement within a week or two that something was found, however minute, that will cause him to be laid off for the next, oh, 8 months until his return where he runs another ridiculous effort. $50K claimer to superstar? I don\'t think so. I just hope the horse doesnt have a severe reaction to his latest big effort where he held on very well off that hot pace. The last 3 have been a ton of stress on this horse.

HP,

Those past TP positives are obviously NOT RELATED to whatever he and others might be doing to get enhanced performances from their stock on a regular basis. Anyone can figure out that a contamination level amount of pain killer isn\'t what this is about.  

If this debate with me is about making the point that he once had positives, then yes he had positives. I can read too.

IMO, that\'s not what this is about.

It\'s about horses from some barns still being moved up dramatically within a relatively short period of time despite security barns, enhanced testing, etc.... that supposedly accounted for dry periods and a few dud performances in the past. Those dry periods were turned around immediately - meaning of course that those security enhancements and those dry periods were unrelated.  

My point today has been simple. A two week period of substandard stats is not proof of anything either. Saying it is is just more of the same kind of thinking that has been repeatedly wrong in the past. Not only is it not proof of anything. It\'s actually an indication of normalcy in the stats.

Why does my simple point have to turn into CH not thinking anyone is cheating or something else that I never said?  

Just seperate the fact that he\'s probably doing something to enhance performance from the x-files fantasies and you\'ll understand where I am coming from.

Do me a favor, read the latest Crist article at the DRF. I agree with him close to 100% about what accounts for most of these ups and downs. Occasionally a barn can also go bad or well for other reasons (sickness in the barn, pointing for a specific meet etc...) etc... but I agree with him.  

The fact that some of them may also be using performance enhancers is a seperate issue from the normal ups and downs.  
 

[miff]

Class said:

\"Those past TP positives are obviously NOT RELATED to whatever he and others might be doing to get enhanced performances from their stock on a regular basis. Anyone can figure out that a contamination level amount of pain killer isn\'t what this is about\"


HP,

No one close to this issue believes that milkshakes or positives for the contaminents  you refer to re: TP have ANYTHING to do with the \"magic bullet\"being used by certain trainers, maybe Pletcher included. It\'s funny when people post here in histerics when a positive shows up lately.These occasional positives are not even CLOSE to the problem of detecting the move up blood dope/super pain med being used(but not detected,yet)by certain trainers.

Understand this,detention barns and shake testing will NOT put a minor chink in the armor of the move up guys. Race track managements have to commit big money to testing if they want to stop the magic bullet.Don\'t hold your breath.

[Kasept]

miff,

Agree that the tracks themselves can\'t be counted on to stop the nefariousness.

It will be other top owners that put a stop to it with methods along the lines of those being employed by the owner JB referenced at the top of this thread...

Steve

[richiebee]

As I have posted in the past, I am not particularly interested in seeing the playing field leveled. First of all, and I am not being facetious, I have been handicapping/ wagering on the uneven playing field for 25 or so years, and am too old and too lazy to retool. Part of my modus operandi has always been to take into account trainers who get \"cold\" and those who get suddenly \"hot\", and to try to take advantage of this information. Examples of the \"suddenly hot\" barns in the last year at NYRA which stand out in my mind were the turnarounds by Jennifer Pedersen (look at her strike rate last October and November compared to the rest of the year) and a four or five week period last fall when Mitchell Friedman was suddenly live.

Secondly, be careful what you wish for. If the playing field is leveled, we will be playing short fields. A whole generation of trainers (and horses) has become addicted to permissive medication, race day and otherwise. If the average racehorse currently makes 10 - 12 starts per year (probably a high number) with permissive meds, this number could possibly drop to 5- 6 starts per year on the zero tolerance level playing field. Short fields would be a lot more detrimental to the long term health of the game than \"cheating\", which in some form or the other has been part of this game only for a couple of centuries.

There is only one reason I would be curious to see a level playing field: On this level playing field, the three trainers who take the most heat on this  board: Dutrow, Frankel, Pletcher-- would still be at the top of the heap, IMO, because they are superior horsemen.

What makes them superior horsemen?

1) They are able to consistently procure top class runners from owners who are   in the game for the long run and willing to spend top dollar to compete at the highest levels.

2) They surround themselves with great support-- exercise riders, grooms, vets, blacksmiths, etc.

3) They are hyper- observant of the day to day changes in condition of their  animals, and know when to back off and when to go forward.

Add to this the fact that they have all accumulated in excess of 100 runners; at that point, racing secretaries at various tracks are bending over backward to accomodate them.

Until the financial motivation to put an end to \"cheating\" is greater than the rewards of cheating... a very unfortunate Coach Bobby Knight remark comes to mind.