Woodward

[richiebee]

Turf courses at Bel should be rather hard; there\'s been no significant rain in the last few weeks... Better Talk Now better on a softer surface?

As on Travers day, a pitiful turnout for the stakes events with some short priced favorites; I will consider making some Pick 6s rather than chasing what could be a very short all stakes Pick 4.

[jimbo66]

Now I have to change my mind since you agree with me Class......

RG will be third choice, almost guaranteed.  Don\'t worry about him being the favorite.  BTN figures the favorite, maybe co-favorite with Kings Drama.  RG will be 7-2 or 4-1.  Up to you to decide if that is enough of a price.  It is for me, since I don\'t think much of BTN, however I agree with you (again) that the race in the ARlington Million was a very good race for him.  I thought he was WAY over-rated before that race, now I think he is just mildly over-rated....

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Lots of posts on this non bettable race. Interesting discussions. Some observations:

Prado is off, he\'s had trouble getting St. Liam back on the proper lead late. Its been as if he didn\'t even know a lead change was in order. Its one of the reasons Jerry Bailey is up. JB\'s stock has fallen slightly however if theres not a low odds issue with him, is there anyone else you\'d rather have on your horse at Belmont? I don\'t think so.

As far as St. Liam\'s fitness, hes as fit as any horse can be that blistered another negative six. Of course he\'s on track for the B.C.Classic. Form may change those plans but is there really a more accomplished horse in America?

As far as the odds in this race St. Liam will be odds on and if you can get 7-5 on Commentator I\'ll be surprised. Commentator will be Even money if my math is right.

Commentator likes one turn and have to think that factor works to his advantage but even if he doesnt let the rabbit head him its very hard to believe the increased impost and pace effort won\'t leave less in the tank for the finish and there wasn\'t a whole lot left in the tank last time. To my mind a wager upon Commentator can only be cashed if St. Liam bounces or Commentator bounces less or they both bounce high enough to let Shackleton pick up the pieces. To stake out that scenario doesn\'t appear very wise to me as they obviously both exit the same race. Sometimes wagering can devolve to gambling and betting on the Woodward would be nothing more than a gamble.

If they are both 100% St. Liam will easily win that race. If not, theres no value anyway.



NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
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> Class,
>
> Is this really the goal for St. Liam ? If it is
> he\'s a NO GO for he BC Classic.
>
> It appears as if Dutrow is either pointing for
> this or to insure Commentator will not win this
> regarless if St. Liam does. Now What is the take
> on dropping Prado on this horse? Did he really do
> a bad job last time?
>
> Also noticed that Prado no longer seems to be the
> No1 guy for Dutrow lately.
>
> MAybe I\'m wrong, but I just don\'t think this Horse
> is \"the Horse\". He\'s good and a competitor, but
> doesn\'t seem to have the winner heart.
>
> NC Tony

[jimbo66]

Chuckles,

You are probably right, Saint Liam is a likely winner in a poor betting race.  I think there is some chance that St. Liam reacts to his negative 6 and in a virtual match race, I took +222 on Commentator in a matchup bet.  I agree you won\'t see that in the betting pools, more like 6-5 or 7-5, assuming Saint Liam is 1 to 2.  

Betting on Commentator is probably a poor bet on my part, but I hate Dutrow and had Commentator last time at 3-1.  Hence, I said betting with my heart and not brain, in this case.

Go commentator........

[jimbo66]

Interesting odds board for the Man O war.

My apologies Class, Relaxed Gesture is the chalk, as you suggested.  It is hard to believe that the Frankel is 5-1 here.  Rousing Victory and Angara are shorter than expected also, especially the former.

The Frankel might be the value here if he stays 4-1 or longer, as the fastest horse in the race, with enough speed to offset the outside post.  Rating is the question with him.  4-1 is a fair price to find out if he can rate.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

interesting odds on the woodward...lol

That wont last...if it does it may not be gambling

Well, Commentator may have bounced, but it sure looked to me that he couldn\'t handle a pace battle.

St.Liam, what can you say?

Think Zito even sends Commentator to the Classic?  I\'d try him at the mile.

[kev]

CTC you made a great point, what does Nick think now of Commentator. Does he say well those rabbit\'s cost us the race and there might not be that much pace in the BC or he might say let\'s try the sprint it\'s still a fast pace but it\'s 6F and he might lay in behind the front runner\'s. Or they will say something happen to him and were going to lay him off for awhile and maybe never see him again. Or run him in the Jockey Gold Cup to try one more time. Only time will tell.

I just got back from the US Open and watched the race.  It went exactly as I expected. Call it a bounce if you like, but Commentator had some help from the biased track last time out. This time the rabbits had him surrounded. Going from a loose lead on a favorable track to being surrounded on an honest track is a big trip switch and Commentator was exposed. This is bad news for me because now I can\'t empty my wallet against him in the BC Classic, but it\'s good news for Bellamy Road.

I was surprised by the payoff on Better Talk Now. I thought he would have been a more solid favorite.

[Wrongly]

I was a bit surprized to see G1 jokes like Dreadnaught and Rousing Victory taking money.  The three top horses finished in the top three and both the exacta and trifecta payed better than I expected.  The only other surprize was that Quail Run earlier in the day paid over $10.00.  Hoping Aristocrat and Awesome Twist also offer value tomorrow.  

[beyerguy]

The tactics employed by Dutrow were a complete disgrace to this formerly great sport.  Rabbits are one thing, strangling your horse to harass another to help a different uncoupled horse is another.  The irony is it didn\'t really affect the result one iota.

[Saddlecloth]

beyerguy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The tactics employed by Dutrow were a complete
> disgrace to this formerly great sport.  Rabbits
> are one thing, strangling your horse to harass
> another to help a different uncoupled horse is
> another.  The irony is it didn\'t really affect the
> result one iota.
>


The fact that this received NO media attention is a friggen joke and tells you how corrupt this sport is, check out the head on, its a disgrace what they did.  NYRA is really as corrupt as their image.

[kev]

Sad thing is Saint L. doesn\'t even need those rabbit\'s, he\'s a good race horse.

[richiebee]

The two Goldfarb owned rabbits brought home a combined 8% of the $490,000 purse offered by NYRA for their respective fourth and fifth place finishes.

Shame on NYRA and trainers/owners that only 2 legitimate animals showed up for a Grade I $490,000 race. Shame on Commentator and Gary Stevens; Commentator had broke on top in his previous 4 races, yet couldn\'t clear these two tomato cans in the first 1/8th mile yesterday.

Drugs may be killing racing. Short fields (also known as too much racing and breeding) will kill racing more quickly by driving off the most important participant...the bettor.

It starts at the yearling/ 2YO sales. Colts are sold for well in excess of what they can ever earn on the track unless they win a Triple Crown race or Breeder\'s Cup race. Pinhookers buying yearlings in  October and selling them as 2YOs in February raise the ante. A graded stakes win, a big # from TG or Beyer over a Talladega like surface, the inevitable minor injury, and we\'ve created another stakes winning retiree, a stallion who may have started what ...seven or eight times?

The fields are short because animals with minor infirmities are forced into retirement. We tend to admire equine athletes, but their human connections rarely allow us the opportunity to  see them \"play hurt\".

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Don\'t think anyone can resent the tactics due to a lost wager.  The race wasn\'t bettable and what was going to happen was apparent.

Commentator is the typical headstrong horse that wants to open daylight between himself and his competition and then get into a relaxed stride. If left alone he\'s apparently enough horse to run off as far as 9 marks. If he can\'t rate or  isn\'t enough horse to overcome a pace challenge and still win why shouldn\'t trainers bait him?

Dutrow said it all. He said he didn\'t need the rabbits to beat Commentator but that he didn\'t want an all out extended effort from St. Liam so close to the Breeders Cup Classic. \"I didn\'t want him getting down on his belly\".

I don\'t have much regard for cheap speed horses that need it all their own way. As far as I\'m concerned if you enter a one dimensional horse, hyped on juice, to try and wire professional races horses. You are fair game buddy.

Classhandicapper stated it well earlier. Left alone some horses will apparently run off and earn huge performance figures. Toss a little adversity in their face and they won\'t even get close to them. Commentator is such a horse. Check out his past performances again. The horse needs the lead. He didn\'t get it for the first time in his life yesterday and he collapsed like a house of cards. I salute Dick Dutrow for exposing this charlatan and call upon Nick Zito to clean up his act. Dick Dutrow as well, but St. Liam is a serious racehorse. He\'s honest and has real abilitiy.

Mabye rabbits are the way to kill off some of this pharmaceutical speed we\'ve been forced to endure.

beyerguy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The tactics employed by Dutrow were a complete
> disgrace to this formerly great sport.  Rabbits
> are one thing, strangling your horse to harass
> another to help a different uncoupled horse is
> another.  The irony is it didn\'t really affect the
> result one iota.
>

[beyerguy]

CtC,

Apparently you somehow missed in my short post that I don\'t care about rabbits.  These horses were there to intimidate and harass Commentator.  Watch the head on, then get back to me.  This had nothing to do with outrunning him for the lead.