Alex, Bellamy, FD, who next?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Jerry\'s post hit on the salient issues.

Speed has been stressed in Breeding. Danzig, Mr. Prospector, Storm Cat. (Many others of course) These were phenomenal quick footed horses, but they were unsound horses as well.

The unsound speed bred horses have been further advantaged by cutting the traditional distance of races back and increasing the spacing between them to allow their weaker constitutions to prevail and to recover.

Add to that drugs have come into play that allow unsound horses to run when they wouldn\'t have been able to run in the past. (Lasix, Bute) Then add to that equation the performance enhancing drugs that push stamina challenged horses a little further than their constitutions would otherwise allow them to go.

Lastly, the weakly bred but precocious horses that achieve in this scenario are rewarded with a large chunk of the genetic influence of the breed through the breeding farms. (Storm Cat for instance)

Its a recipe for weakening the breed. All you have to do is look at the average number of starts for the sires and how much time is needed between efforts now to recover.

When I hear people arguing for increasing the spacing of the Triple Crown races I chuckle. Sure they can do that, but what will they be left with?

The best way to fight off the destruction of the animal is to race long. That will require that the breeders breed long and horses that are bad for the breed like Mr. Prospector and Storm Cat will have less influence because they will get fewer mares and command lower prices. Point Given, Easy Goer, Afleet Alex...they won their Belmonts by large margins because the small edge a superior horse has at 9 marks is accentuated at 12. This is how you fix the breed.

Also stringent drug testing is critical to making sure its genetics and horsemen that win races. Not medications and trainers.

[Michael D.]

the breed changed. horses are designed to run much quicker than they used to. they have lower legs with no muscle. they put more pressure on their spring like, but fragile tendons. exceptionally fast horses just put too much pressure on their legs to stay sound for an extended period of time. spacing between races, along with medicine, is the only thing keeping these animals going.

Has anyone actually done any comparison studies on the breed in terms of conformation, size, weight, etc....  ?

When I watch the races from the 40s etc... it seems to me the best horses don\'t stride out as well as some of the horses I see today but I can\'t say I see much difference between what I see now and what I saw in the late 70s through the 80s.    

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

you can go to pedigreequery.com and look at conformational pictures that trace the breed back to the three foundational arabians and see little to no difference between the standouts from the breed now and then. (I know conformation, don\'t purport to be the best at it.)

Additionally, you can view photos, paintings and some film at the Hall of Fame
.
http://www.racingmuseum.org/Hall/fame.asp

You can\'t see them stride out. Obviously to run faster you have to incorporate more recoil in the surface, increase the the number of quick steps, increase the power of the jump and/or stride or a combination of those factors. Even today different horses do it differently. Hard to say how they did it way back when. I\'ve seen movies of Native Dancer and don\'t believe he did it any differently.

Horses may be a bit taller today, though I\'m not even certain regarding that. I don\'t think Michael meant to imply the modern horse doesn\'t have muscle in its  lower leg NOW. They obviously never did.

Hate to think time and medicine is the future of racing. Theres different paths to take. Its a question of who will be most influential and what the end result will be.

Distorted Humor:

Heres a link to a horse at the Keeneland sale by Distorted Humor thought Tgraph would be interested in. He sold for a big bid and they think hes gonna be fast. Hes got good rump and shoulder on him, though yearlings all look funny to me. Stunted.

Anyway, would guess that this one does more than the two top priced Storm Cats even though its hard to be wild about the pedigree.

 http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=30025

[manning]

These two comments in the same post:

\"I know conformation\"  &  \"yearlings all look funny to me.\"

Clown, indeed.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

well, if you think you can ascertain how a yearling will fill and lengthen out precisely you need to apply to Coolmore because they have a fella there buying horses for them that really doesnt know.

Manning, there was a prediction in that thread. The two expensive Storm Cats won\'t amount to as much as the 900K Distorted Humor. Come back in two years, we\'ll miss ya.

lol

I found a conformation article I read a couple years ago. Note it is for the very sale going on now. The pictures are troubling because there are few leaves on the trees and I dont know with certainty when the photos were taken. The grass is green though, so I\'m assuming Spring and that the photos were from applictions to be in the sale. Spring makes yearlings look even stuntier so thats probably why the sample horses look even more like weanlings.

http://breeding.bloodhorse.com/yearling_conformation_pt_one.asp

Its a good article all things considered. I\'d prefer to post some info from books but I don\'t have a scanner.

Note how they discuss the change some of these horses undergo from yearlings to two year olds. For the life of me, I don\'t know how these buyers open their wallets for horses in physical flux.

[manning]

Your prediction is noted, but if you\'re gonna go on & on about conformation, and then tell us that \"yearlings all look funny\" to you, just save that stuff for your Dear Diary entry...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The point being that conformation cannot be ascertained until maturity. We got on this topic because another poster was implying there were may be conformational difference between the stars of yesteryear and today. Other than a quarter hand or half hand from 1680 I don\'t think theres any proof of that. The conformation issue meshed with the Keeneland sale is all.

But, when you go down to the paddock to look at and bet on maiden two or three year olds its releveant.

When you\'re buying a \"mature\" horse or want a stallion for your Stud Farm its relevant.

When you look at yearlings you\'re gonna be able to tell which have clear flaws or acceptable flaws, (though even those may change), but beyound that its a crapshoot.

For every Seattle Dancer or Snaafi Dancer that didn\'t win a derby, or even race, theres a good number of Seattle Slews (17K), Real Quiets (17K), and Silver Charms (70K) that did.

Dear Diary: I dont think Manning bothers to look at the horses, though its hard with computer betting. I also suspect he can\'t tell a lead change from a changed lead and that he just wants to bet.

[manning]

Good Lord...I think it\'s fairly obvious that these guys are laying out the big numbers for horses with pedigree, assuming the conformation doesn\'t look too \"funny.\"  The fact is, Seattle Dancer was a 1/2 to Seattle Slew...that\'s right, the $17k yearling.  I would suggest that even if his unaccomplished brother was a perfect specimen, he would have gone for around $17k himself if \'Slew turned out to be a $17k claimer.

Tell you what, we can revive this discussion as soon as a colt by
Silver Buck or Quiet American goes for $9 mil.

[Michael D.]

clown,
no conformational differences other than a small change in size? are you aware of the soundness issues with storm cat and mr prospector offspring? aware of the turned out and offset knees? do you realize how much of an influence those two sires and their soundness issues have had on this game? are you aware that breeders and buyers alike have chosen to ignore the soundness problems and go with the speed. the breed is less sound than it used to be, best you learn that now. and sorry you had a tough time understanding my complex statement from earlier, but - since horses have lower legs with no muscle, much of the added stress of running faster is absorbed by still fragile tendons. horses are much quicker than they used to be, but their leg strength has not evolved to offset that change.

 

[Michael D.]

Jim,
i don\'t think economics is the main issue here. people have always liked money. the recent decrease in lifetime starts is the same for gelding as it is for the rest.

[miff]

Michael D said:

\"the breed changed. horses are designed to run much quicker than they used to. they have lower legs with no muscle. they put more pressure on their spring like, but fragile tendons. exceptionally fast horses just put too much pressure on their legs to stay sound for an extended period of time. spacing between races, along with medicine, is the only thing keeping these animals going\"


TGJB,

I did not know that horses have \"lower legs\" these days.How do you factor in leg size when making comparisons to the figs run by the champions of 20-30 years ago?

Surely these \'modern\' lower legs would make horses slower overall since they would not be able to stride out as well as their longer legged brothers and sisters of years past.Michael D\'s revelation proves you are WRONG about horses being faster, and it\'s time for you to ADMIT it.Slow day, unbelievable!

Michael,
 
\"i don\'t think economics is the main issue here. people have always liked money. the recent decrease in lifetime starts is the same for gelding as it is for the rest.\"

I\'ve never seen any stats on whether there has been a decrease in starts for geldings also, but assuming you are correct, I still think economics is playing a big role in the early retirements. Retiring/racing vs. number of starts while you are active are two separate issues. One is related to economics and the other is related to training styles and soundness issues.  

People have always liked money, but the relationship between what you can make racing vs. retirement has apparently been changed dramatically. So what used to be a marginal decision in the past screams retirement now.