Matron & Atto Mile

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

A to Z is the other horse that looks dangerous to me Don\'t think his form is as spotty as it looks.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I hear you Class...that many wins in a row deserve respect and you have to ask yourself was he running within himself?

That last Saratoga race was a course record I understand and coming back rather quick and the turf will definitely have some give to it.

He shortens up and only puts on 2 more lbs. Definitly not sure about this one, plus I suck at turf, but think hes liable to be entertained early by a few. We\'ll see. But this is a spot where you have to take aim. Especially as close as that Grade I at Hollywood was to A & Z.

[Saddlecloth]

yea, just a slow horse who got another perfect trip.

[beyerguy]

classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The Breeders Cup Mile is the main objective
> for this horse -not the Atto Mile. Frankel is no
> dummy. He\'s not going to sacrifice the latter to
> win this. So the horse may not even be 100% today.

A million is a million, doesn\'t matter which race he wins, though he\'ll probably win them both.

[kev]

Well MOBIL came in 2nd, so I won\'t be saying \" How in the hell he come in\" This was so wide open, MOBIL had a 1.2 equal to the fav. along with many other\'s in here, I didn\'t get to see to race, how much did the fav. win by??

[Michael D.]

kev,
he destroyed the field. good call on mobile. KOH sat just off the very fast pace, and he paid the price. can\'t blame pval though, he was up against a better animal. 3-5, short rest, heavy turf, 124 lbs - not my knid of play, but that was one impressive performance by the winner.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Its not the Frankel Horse winning that hurts. The probability existed he would.

What hursts is not having a clue down the line.

Lets see the King of Animals win against some of the top Europeans from a poor draw in the B.C. Mile before everyone gets exited. Those fractions were good, but good horses will run quick on that layout. Michael D. appears right the Turf course was getting quicker late, but no one else ran much of a race judging by the 6th.

He paid 3.30

Just more reason to beat him at Belmont.

beyer,

A million is a million, but personally I\'d rather say I won the BC when it\'s time to sell him or set his stud price. In recent years I\'ve noticed that some trainers don\'t send their horses out 100% in the race just prior to the BC. I guess it\'s an effort to get them to peak on the big day instead. I\'m paying closer attention to it this year.

This was a huge win (way better than I expected). If the figure comes back huge, I think some people will argue that it was mistake to have him this wound up before the BC. They\'ll be looking for a bounce. If he wasn\'t 100%, that was a pretty frightening performance.  

I love the Europeans on the turf every year and have cashed many nice tickets over the years, but I think you can argue that Leroy at a Mile and Shakespeare (if he gets another race under his belt and can get the 12F) present two tough customers for them to beat.  

[jimbo66]

Clown,

Do you realize that every time a horse wins, you write the same thing.  Let\'s see him do it without an easy lead.  Let\'s see him do it on a track was that wasn\'t biased.  Let\'s see him do it carrying 140 pounds like Dr. Fager.  Not its Let\'s see him do it from the outside post against Europeans.  

Did you see the race today, or are you blind?  He won by the length of the stretch.  You wanted to bet against him before the race, now afterwards it is your usual \"probability existed he would win\".  You should try your probability posts before the race.  

Class,

Here it goes again.  I hate to agree with Class, but.....   It is obvious when you watches races like this one today that figures don\'t capture the story.  At the weights Leroides was supposed to be about the same level as several others.  He couldn\'t have won any easier.  So, did every horse in the race \"x\" today?  I doubt it.  Did Leroides get 5 lengths faster today?  Probably not.  Maybe he was within himself in many of those previous wins?  I don\'t know.  But I can tell you that I saw enough today that tells me I am not going to make a living betting against this horse.  Let others line up and bet against him again in the BC, I give up on chasing him.

[kev]

Sounds like he might have ran a new top.

JIMBO,

\"Here it goes again. I hate to agree with Class, but..... \"

I may be a pain the \"XXX\" sometimes, but there\'s no law that says you have to hate agreeing with me on the occasions I say something that makes sense.

Personally, I think this was probably a new top, but I think you summarized it better than I did. Horses rarely accumulate records like this unless they have a \"little extra\" in the tank. IMO, there are intangibles to ability that seperate horses that look similar on speed that are best not ignored even if they tend to be overbet sometimes. Those intangibles are what is commonly referred to as class by old fashioned guys like me.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Clown,
>
> Do you realize that every time a horse wins, you
> write the same thing.  Let\'s see him do it without
> an easy lead.  Let\'s see him do it on a track was
> that wasn\'t biased.  Let\'s see him do it carrying
> 140 pounds like Dr. Fager.  Not its Let\'s see him
> do it from the outside post against Europeans.  

Well, Jim that field was sitting on bounces in all candor. Don\'t you ever review the races? Or do you just look at the margin, the boxscore and the previous numbers for the winner to determine how good a race he ran?

Lets look at the horses behind The Fastest Horse in the World:

Do you think King of Happiness ran his 1.5 from essentially the rail? Because if you did the others ran very very fast races. In fact Leroid would be at about Negative 6 if he did...lol I know, you think it was.

Do you think Vanderilin comin off a 2 point plus Career top paired or went forward? He was only beaten 2 lengths for second. Or do you think he regressed significantly?

What about Le Cinquieme Essai coming off a 3 point Career top? Check your sheets. Which way did he go?

How about Sophias Prince?

Mobil might have run his 1.5 with ground loss. He might also have run his 3.1, haven\'t tried to figure it precisely..you know why?  I don\'t have to..lol

Add to that the fact the 6th race animals time was the equal of the Atto and you have a mirage. The field collapsed again. But you dont\' know that. Thats ok, I won\'t hold you against you. You bet that Leroid next time ok. Bet with both hands.

>
> Did you see the race today, or are you blind?  He
> won by the length of the stretch.  You wanted to
> bet against him before the race, now afterwards it
> is your usual \"probability existed he would win\".
> You should try your probability posts before the
> race.  

Addressed the optical illusion already. I bet against him very carefully and would have lost regardless. My horses all bounced. I did post pre race it was a race to be worried about. I was worried. Not so much because Leroid is a lot of horse.

One last thing. Probability is a mathematical term. There was a certain probability Leroid would win. It was a high probability. He was still worth a wager against there.

[Barry Irwin]

I think the Atto is unbettable. It\'s hard for me to get negative on Leroy given that he\'s 8-10 on turf with 1 second against many solid Graded Stakes horses. I think the difference between him and some of the others is greater than the small edge in speed figures indicates. Plus, he\'s got the perfect style to get consistently easy trips. He should get another one from the rail. The only knock I can find is that that last field wasn\'t particularly good and he got a very easy trip on the lead. So he may not have been as sharp there as he was earlier in the year. Even that\'s a stretch though because you could argue that his last race was a prep for this and the BC.

Class, it is refreshing to read herein something about the \"sport\" of racing, as opposed to the \"beating the favorite\" drone.

Sure, everybody wants to be able to beat the favorite to cash a ticket, but somewhere along the line it is important to recognize the real reason this sport exists.

Okay, I am now going to put on the pith helmut I bought at a flea market yesterday in suburban Lexington, so go ahead and hurl on me.

Oh, yeah, I arranged a deal for Richard and Audrey Haisfield of Midway, Kentucky to acquire Leroy for stud, to stand alongside Medaglia d\'Oro, which I bought for them last year. They have two viable stallion prospects for their new bluegrass farm.

[marcus]

I\'m guessing the place horse ran a secondary top and lost alot of ground while
the winner ran a slight top ( less than a pt ) + got a rail trip .
 I had a flyer to win on Mobil , passed on the exacta w/ the prohibrative price on top .
 Perhaps I should consider using place bet\'s though on aprx 30-1 + up , when appropriate ...    

[bdhsheets]

Reviewing the ATTO ROTW sheets, a reasonably good field, Perfect Drift fits in the BC Mile. He has numbers as good as Leroy and others in the field.

I\'ll quietly beat my drum for him, lol. He can\'t win the Classic....