Matron & Atto Mile

[SoCalMan2]

Dear Mr. Irwin,

I plead guilty of contributing to the \"beating the favorite\" drone.  I have no interest in getting into anything that requires a participant to wear a pith helmet, so please take the following remarks in the friendly way they are intended.  Also, since you have identified yourself here, I should point out to you that we know people in common.  My cousin knows you well and speaks very highly of you. Thus, I am not interested in creating any animosity.  Your points are interesting ones, and I would like to address them.

I respectfully suggest it is not right to hint that people who enjoy talking about handicapping and betting (or looking for ways to go against popular opinion in horseracing) somehow do not recognize or appreciate the sport.  I think whether a person enjoys betting favorites or enjoys betting against favorites (or doesn\'t even enjoy betting at all) has no bearing on such a person\'s recognition of the sport.  If everybody must share the same view in order to appreciate or recognize the sport, that strikes me as a pretty boring sport (closer to watching a performance rather than a contest).  Although there is a lot about Classhandicapper I do not respect or agree with, I agree that he shares with most, if not all, on this board a love of the sport.

Getting to the real reason this sport exists, as you mention, is a very interesting question.  I think the historical roots are probably pretty well explored and not open to question.  However, the reason the current version of the sport is sustained is a very important question that the horseracing establishment needs to think about and address if they want to continue into the future.  Since I love the sport, I sincerely hope it is sustained and hope that the racing community works jointly towards that end.  I do not think that handicapping dialogs on bulletin boards such as this one do damage to the sustainability of horseracing, and, in fact, I would suggest they help the sport.

I personally thought the dialog on the board regarding the Atto Mile was refreshing (especially in light of other things that also appear on this board from time to time).  I even thought the Clown offered a valuable insight. I do include Classhandicapper\'s contribution in this particular instance, but, normally, it is impossible to engage Classhandicapper in any sort of dialog because either he has no ears or chooses not to use them.

In this case, CH concisely explained the mainstream reasons to bet on Leroidesanimaux (BRZ) which provided a very good counterpoint for discussion.  In addition to pointing out (as the ROTW had already done quite well) that there existed another side to the story from what appeared in the superficial analysis, I was trying to point out that it is exactly these sorts of differences of opinion (perfectly illustrated by CH) that give rise to distorted odds which provide opportunity.  

I suspect this is a good example of why Ragozin entitled his book \"The Odds Must be Crazy.\" I have not read the book in a long time, but I do recall a tale of him (or else his father) making a healthy score on Dark Star against Native Dancer in the KY Derby using the same logic at issue here.  Now I would not accuse Ragozin or his father of not appreciating or giving good recognition to the sport because he profited from Native Dancer\'s loss or may have been rooting against Native Dancer.  (I recognize that the Derby in question was a roughly run race and that is a shame - especially given Native Dancer\'s ultimate boxscore, but that does not mean that the people who bet on, or rooted for, Dark Star were bad people or did not love the sport or did not make an intelligent bet).

Since Le Roi was bet down to 65 cents, clearly the crowd favored the superficial story over other competing explanations.  For some of us, this created a pleasing opportunity described above. Even though I lost (in fact, I was soundly trounced), I enjoyed betting on the race.  People who bet on analyses such as LeRoi presented in the Atto must win on such analyses many times for it to be worth their while.  For me, I can afford to lose 80% of the time on the analysis I used and still come out well as long as I am hitting 1 in 5.  I view this as a textbook example betting correctly but still losing.  Anybody who thinks that is not possible does not have a good understanding of horseracing.  For the people who were backing Leroidesanimaux (BRZ), they should be happy that people like me existed as the $3.30 would have been less without us.

An important aspect to all of this is the odds being offered by the crowd.  Despite what I said in my earlier post in response to Classhandicapper, I do think there are times where a \'boxscore\' analysis may be very valuable.  For example, a lot of times the speed figures may indicate that a race is very even yet the crowd favors a particular horse.  I have seen many times in such a situation where the crowd overlooks a horse with good figures and a good boxscore (usually this occurs when that boxscore has been run up at a place foreign or obscure), and, in these cases, the boxscore can become a valid basis for selecting a horse.  

What I do not think makes sense is to say a 3-5 shot is hard to go against because he is \"11-8-1-0.\" The times I think it is hard to bet against a 3-5 shot are when he is clearly the fastest horse in the race by a comfortable margin.  I expect 3-5 shots to have something on their form that makes the crowd want to make them 3-5 -- a strong boxscore can often produce such an inefficiency in my opinion.  Let us say the odds were 5-1 for leRoi and 3-5 on KoH, in such a situation, I would not have had any problem switching my bets around on the same analysis of the race. I would not, however, say I was betting on LeRoi because his boxscore was so good.  I would be betting on him because he is the same speed as Koh and, even if there were trip, pattern, and weight concerns, the 5-1 makes up for it.

Finally, I think the Atto was an excellent ROTW because it showed that even when on the pages of the DRF and in popular opinion a horse may seem overwhelming, there can be intelligent reasons to go against the flow.  Just because the results came out the other way does not invalidate this.  I am sorry you found the discussion boring or displeasing somehow, but to me it was healthy dialog that people can learn from.  Maybe others disagree with me, and I should be going long on pith helmets.  In any event, in my view, none of this requires any animosity, and it can all be discussed maturely and amicably.

Respectfully Submitted,

SoCalMan2
 

[Michael D.]

Barry,
The real reason why this sport exists is because people bet on it. Hate to say it, but there\'s not enough interest out there to keep this game going without the action - not even close. As for Leroi - congrats on recognizing his brilliance and arranging the stud deal. He\'s a great animal. I hope we see a lot more like him down the road.

So Cal Man,

With all due respect, I don\'t think you understand what I am saying. I\'ll take a crack at it. You will probably not agree with me, but at least you will understand what I am sayng.

First off, I didn\'t think Leroy should be bet because he was 8-10 on turf. Nor did I say he was deserving of being a 3-5 shot. I said the difference between him and the other horses with similar speed figures was larger than the figures indicated. I still think that. Now even more so.

There are people that think that speed figures alone tell you everything about a horse\'s performance and ability. This board is inhabited by many such handicappers. I\'m not one of them. I think speed figures are an indispensible part of evaluating a horse\'s performance and ability (that\'s why I use them), but not the whole story.

Obviously, you know I also look at things like pace, bias, etc... but that\'s not what I was referring to here.  I was referring to the things that seperate horses that are less tangible than how fast a final time they run.

I think most handicappers would agree that horses with equal speed figures often have varying degrees early speed, acceleration, stamina, closing kick, determination, competitiveness, reserve racing energy, etc....  Even if you even partially agree, that\'s OK.

I have yet to find a way to mathematically measure all these intangibles even though some of them can be gleaned from the PPs and by actually watching the horses run. I think these intangibles are very important among horses with otherwise similar speed figures. What I also believe strongly is that as you move up the class ladder, not only do horses generally run faster, they also tend to possess greater quantities of these intangibles (though each horse has different qualities in different degrees).  

Horse races are not sprints where every horse is running full out all the way on a straightaway. Races develop. In part, horses use these intangibles to get position, maintain position, dart through openings, duel off competitors, sustain their bid longer, run a faster pace, repulse a bid, etc...

I noticed something over the years. Horses that had accumulated outstanding records against equal or higher quality horses than their opponents  (like Leroy) tended to vastly outperform horses with similar speed figures but inferior records against inferior horses (in terms of winning more often).

I think superior records like these are \"very basic\" way of telling you that a horse probably has more of the intangibles in greater quantities than his opponenets. (VERY BASIC)

They have a tad more acceleration, stamina, determination, etc... and/or have earned their figures against horses with more of those qualities than their opponents. In the old days they used to call it class. I think it matters. It\'s that little bit extra in the tank that allows one horse to outgame, outkick, outposition, duel off, etc... another horse and get the job done more often.

It\'s similar to a semi-pro ERA not being the same as a major league ERA and why I\'d rather have Michael Jordan shooting the game wining shot than a statistically  better outside shooter from some college team that had never faced the heat of an NBA final. Intangibles matter.

As far as betting goes, I couldn\'t really tell you what the appropriate values were in this case. \"Maybe\" they were closer than the odds. I didn\'t bet Leroy to win at that price (I did bet him to place at 2.80 though .

What I am saying is that if you went into the race thinking Leroy and a bunch of the others were equal because they had equal speed figures you were alomst certainly mistaken. It doesn\'t matter if Leroy was overbet to win or not. What is important is that a handicapper actually assess the probabilties of a horse winning correctly (or at least close) otherwise you will bet a lot of horses that you think are overlays that are NOT!  


 











 

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Barry,

The tenor of your post is a race thats about to occur. That the race is \"imminent\". I noticed the time of your Post was 10:18 PM Sunday. Its considered bad form to Past Post here Barry.

I\'d offer one other insight in the event a technical glitch allowed your post to drop to the board post race or post virus check or you got busy trying to buy a prospective stakes winner before you eventually sent it. I\'d be very very leery of buying Frankel horses for stud. Frankel horses are not running on their own innate ability. Just ask his vet. A portfolio of Frankel stud horses is certainly a bigger gamble than a flyer to bet Leroid.

Irwin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> > I think the Atto is unbettable. It\'s hard for me
> to get negative on Leroy given that he\'s 8-10 on
> turf with 1 second against many solid Graded
> Stakes horses. I think the difference between him
> and some of the others is greater than the small
> edge in speed figures indicates. Plus, he\'s got
> the perfect style to get consistently easy trips.
> He should get another one from the rail. The only
> knock I can find is that that last field wasn\'t
> particularly good and he got a very easy trip on
> the lead. So he may not have been as sharp there
> as he was earlier in the year. Even that\'s a
> stretch though because you could argue that his
> last race was a prep for this and the BC.
>
> Class, it is refreshing to read herein something
> about the \"sport\" of racing, as opposed to the
> \"beating the favorite\" drone.
>
> Sure, everybody wants to be able to beat the
> favorite to cash a ticket, but somewhere along the
> line it is important to recognize the real reason
> this sport exists.
>
> Okay, I am now going to put on the pith helmut I
> bought at a flea market yesterday in suburban
> Lexington, so go ahead and hurl on me.
>
> Oh, yeah, I arranged a deal for Richard and Audrey
> Haisfield of Midway, Kentucky to acquire Leroy for
> stud, to stand alongside Medaglia d\'Oro, which I
> bought for them last year. They have two viable
> stallion prospects for their new bluegrass farm.

[miff]

Right on Chuck,

Le Roi\'s testies are like prunes from the steroids.

[jimbo66]

Clown,

In the first paragraph, Barry is just retyping what Class wrote before the race.

He isn\'t guilty of bad form because of past posting, he is guilty of bad form for style of posting.  he should have attributed the quote to Class.

Interesting that you would be the past post police Clown. At one point there was a suggestion of naming the redboard room the chuckles the clown room.....

By the way, point taken on your Atto Mile.  You are correct that it would seem a lot of horses bounced and several were coming off of tops, so it wasn\'t unlikely.  I struggle the most with what happened to the horse I bet, King of Happiness.  He didn\'t have a \"bounce line\" and was pretty consistent.  I guess he didn\'t adjust well from running on the very hard turf courses in California, to the yielding course at Woodbine.  I thought before the race as a son of Spinning World, who I believe was a top class Euro runner, he would probably apprecite the soft turf and might even move up.

My point clown was not that Leroides ran a negative 6, it is that you have a habit of denigrating top performances of horses.  Ghostzapper, Bellamy Road, Leroides and others.  Leroides ran a very big race yesterday.  How big, I don\'t know, but very big.  You want to bet against him again in 6 six weeks, go ahead.  I\'ve had my fill betting against him in 5 races of his streak.  No mas for me.  (that doesn\'t mean betting on him at a short price in the BC, but rather skipping the race and watching).

Jim

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Could be miff, though hes not even running that fast. That Atto was a field collapse. Provided they get their environment the Eurohorses are gonna trash our milers.

Between cleaning the drugs out of a juiced horse and the fact they carried him faster and further than he actually had in him, its hard to believe the juiced are going to be great Stud animals. One will eventually come along with enough genetic ability to get the job done. But the same is true of unraced horses that wind up as dog food.

We\'ve got the first of the juicers in the Stud barn now. How are they doing?

Aptitude is siring maiden claiming winners. (Granted he deserves next year to judge. But the start is slow)

Left Bank is dead.

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Right on Chuck,
>
> Le Roi\'s testies are like prunes from the
> steroids.

[P.Eckhart]

>Add to that the fact the 6th race animals time was the equal of the Atto and >you have a mirage.

How reliable is the time for the sixth because two intermediate call times are missing, (jumping from 4f to final time), is this normal. The winner of the sixth was 15L behind Leroi at halfway yet as you point out finished with an impressive time in comparison to the Atto. Hard to imagine.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Good observation, was noticed here as well.

If the timer was off, was it off for other races?

The finishing positions say bounce for the majority of the field.

The time of the sixth says the Atto was merely a good race, not a great one.

The Turf course was drying out quickly. Post 6th the Turf should have been faster per the trend. The condition changed from Soft to Yielding for the Atto. It certainly wasn\'t a bog.

Leroid is a very juicy target.

P.Eckhart Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >Add to that the fact the 6th race animals time
> was the equal of the Atto and >you have a
> mirage.
>
> How reliable is the time for the sixth because two
> intermediate call times are missing, (jumping from
> 4f to final time), is this normal. The winner of
> the sixth was 15L behind Leroi at halfway yet as
> you point out finished with an impressive time in
> comparison to the Atto. Hard to imagine.

[Barry Irwin]

Class: you are correct in your position on speed figures. Anybody who tries to build a stable of racehorses selected strictly on numbers always winds up on the short end of the stick. Numbers are great and an important tool, but there are other elements more important.

Miff: Leroy\'s nuts are bigger than your head. The reproductive vet from Texas who ultra-sounded them said they are among the largest he\'s ever seen. You sound like a guy who has heard a lot about steroids, but not actually eye-balled many horse testes close up.

Hey, I am not going to be put in a position of defending Bobby Frankel, so don\'t put me there, thank you very much.

This is one special horse, anyway you look at it.

And on a final note, steroids do not do nearly as much for equines as they do for people. Horses are already born athletic, they don\'t require much physical help, as do humans.

The way trainers cheat with horses is to make them less tired, so they can carry their speed longer.

[miff]

Barry,

I have owned and been around horses for 40 years in New York so I know a bit about testes(better you eye ball them CLOSE up) and my comment about Leroi was \"tongue in cheek\".Surely you are aware that Bobby Frankel\'s horses were an automatic toss shipping into New York in the early- mid 90\'s before he had his EPIPHANY and woke up a super trainer, east coast also.

Regarding Leroi, he\'s a beast and I hope he does well in the breeding shed and whatever Frankel races him with(if anything) does not interfere.Many horsemen believe that steroids DO help a horse but of course not nearly as much as illegal blood dope and illegal pain stuff.

[HP]

\"And on a final note, steroids do not do nearly as much for equines as they do for people. Horses are already born athletic, they don\'t require much physical help, as do humans.\"

I\'m sorry Barry, but this is just a totally ignorant statement.

I had a crash course in steroids when I had to use them to treat my scarred cornea. They have many properties that you are obviously not aware of. If your point is that steroids may not be as big an issue as some other things, I would tend to agree with you. But as a general comment you are way off here.

Steroids are incredibly powerful drugs, and it really depends on what you are trying to do with them and what kind of problem you are trying to solve. They can do PLENTY for equines. In fact, steroids are being incorporated into more and more medical and veterinary treatments every day, precisely because they are effective and have many properties that the general public may not be aware of.  

Also, having spent some time around horses, I can tell you that plenty of them are born clumsy and can\'t get out of their own way, just like people, so you are off base with this \"born athletic\" thing too.

HP

Barry,

I think Leroi may be the best US based turf miler since Lure. I can\'t recall any others that have made a similar impression or put togther a similar string of performances. The Europeans are going to have to send over a tiger to beat him. Good Luck.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Well first off, I owe Barry an apology. The quote did come directly from Classhandicapper\'s post so it was obviously a cut and paste job and NOT a Past Post post...lol  I apologize. (Thanks for pointing out my poor reading retention Jimbo) The facts lead me to believe Team Valor has visited the TGraph lunatic board.

I perused the Team Valor site and was impressed with the South African purchase plan. In summary it looks like purchasing horses with pedigrees less dominated by American Sires that pass infirmities for reasonable prices and racing them where they were bred until the best rise to the top and their ability justifies the cost of shipping them to the U.S. There were some nice looking horses in that bunch.

Barry\'s point about the mojo protecting the horse from fatigue are in line with my observations. I\'ve not had the chance to talk to trainers that use the juice. I wonder if Barry could enlighten us where his conclusion in that regard comes from.

Leroid is obviously a horse with talent. Many times the B.C. Mile is won with 1\'s and he is capable of that. Until TGraph comes back with the hand times from the Canadian Bell and Atto mile it would be reckless to send in the future bets on Leroid. Hes no value anyway. The bet is to beat him. Dubawi is a nice miler. A concern with him was the skip of a big race because they feared the ground was too firm. The race went in 1.37 Could have been firm ground, long grass...i\'m not a Euro race maven.

As far as the figures. Fast figures that are accurate are clearly the number 1 factor to consider in racing horses or building a stable. The problem is no one sells the best figure horses. Just try buying Saint Liam or Afleet Alex NOW.

Barry, I know the owner of Hill n Dale farm and the new owners of Stonefarm have at least been partners and perhaps are friends. Why would the owner of Hill n Dale sell Megadalia d Oro before his first foals have even hit the track? (I take that back theres good reasons to sell before the first foals hit the track. I\'m not even sure Megas have hit the ground though, why sell now?) Mega was one of those that seemed to run a little farther and faster than he had a right. Certainly one of the top suspects for the mojo factor.

I summarized Barry Irwin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Class: you are correct in your position on speed
> figures. Anybody who tries to build a stable of
> racehorses selected strictly on numbers always
> winds up on the short end of the stick. Numbers
> are great and an important tool, but there are
> other elements more important.
>
> Miff: Leroy\'s nuts are bigger than your head. The
> reproductive vet from Texas who ultra-sounded them
> said they are among the largest he\'s ever seen.
> You sound like a guy who has heard a lot about
> steroids, but not actually eye-balled many horse
> testes close up.
>
> Hey, I am not going to be put in a position of
> defending Bobby Frankel, so don\'t put me there,
> thank you very much.
>
> This is one special horse, anyway you look at it.
>
> And on a final note, steroids do not do nearly as
> much for equines as they do for people. Horses are
> already born athletic, they don\'t require much
> physical help, as do humans.
>
> The way trainers cheat with horses is to make them
> less tired, so they can carry their speed longer.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Clown,
>
> In the first paragraph, Barry is just retyping
> what Class wrote before the race.

duly noted and I apologized.

>
> He isn\'t guilty of bad form because of past
> posting, he is guilty of bad form for style of
> posting.  he should have attributed the quote to
> Class.
>
> Interesting that you would be the past post police
> Clown. At one point there was a suggestion of
> naming the redboard room the chuckles the clown
> room.....

I\'d consider it an honor, the thing is the couple times I got in trouble over it were on races I either didn\'t win or broke even upon.


> By the way, point taken on your Atto Mile.  You
> are correct that it would seem a lot of horses
> bounced and several were coming off of tops, so it
> wasn\'t unlikely.  I struggle the most with what
> happened to the horse I bet, King of Happiness.

By all appearances King of Happiness was poised for a nice effort. His race is the key for determining what occurred in the Atto. Well, his race and the Canadian Bell.

> He didn\'t have a \"bounce line\" and was pretty
> consistent.  I guess he didn\'t adjust well from
> running on the very hard turf courses in
> California, to the yielding course at Woodbine.  I
> thought before the race as a son of Spinning
> World, who I believe was a top class Euro runner,
> he would probably apprecite the soft turf and
> might even move up.
>
> My point clown was not that Leroides ran a
> negative 6, it is that you have a habit of
> denigrating top performances of horses.
> Ghostzapper, Bellamy Road, Leroides and others.

I don\'t think Leroids figure is negative. Neither did I believe Bellamy\'s was a negative five. I think Bellamy ran approximately a negative 1 that day.

I\'m gonna get in trouble if I belabor Ghostzapper again, but he was no better than Saint Liam at 9 marks and that Lone Star B.C. was as much an optical illusion as Bellamy\'s Wood and Leroids Atto.

 
> Leroides ran a very big race yesterday.  How big,
> I don\'t know, but very big.  You want to bet
> against him again in 6 six weeks, go ahead.  I\'ve
> had my fill betting against him in 5 races of his
> streak.  No mas for me.  (that doesn\'t mean
> betting on him at a short price in the BC, but
> rather skipping the race and watching).

Don\'t get me wrong. Its not gonna be a Class A bet, but depending upon the field I\'m gonna take my shot at him. He owes me. I\'ll check what Class says on the race though, hes shied away from the Atto and Penn Derby on class and turned out he was correct. I wish I\'d listend to him on the Penn Derby...lol