jimbo66 Wrote:
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>
> Class,
>
> I didn\'t say you analyze the trip and the figure
> together. I would say you \"over-analyze\" the trip
> and pace in respect to the fig, similar to Clown.
> You two both liked Bellamy Road\'s Derby and killed
> his Wood. That shoud be enough said, right there.
I said his Wood was a decent race and it was. Just never believed it was near a Negtive 5. Regarding his Derby, I said he was a horse with a future. The Derby was not a bad effort and neither was his Travers. Neither of which means I like that horse. I don\'t like him. He\'s extremely one dimensional, but if they keep him away from the better horses at longer races he does have a future, which is what I said. Sure, I\'d take him if he was given to me, but I\'d pick more than a half dozen of his crop before him.
> If you always discount the wins and give more
> credit to the losses, you just wind up with a
> bunch of horses running \"decently\", all the time.
> I read this regularly on this board, repeatedly,
> from both of you.
We both said a big win is rarely as good as it looks and that a loss can be better than it looks.
> It is your opinion and you can
> post it again and again, but that doesn\'t make it
> right. Sometimes a good race is a good race,
> period. Leroides race was good last week, despite
> what Clown said. For you to call Super Frolic\'s
> last race his lifetime best is ridiculous. I am
> not saying his race sucked, but it was no lifetime
> best. To me, that is a classic example of your
> over-analysis and over-compensating. He ran into
> a pretty quick pace and maybe it cost him a couple
> lengths. Maybe. Maybe the \"2\" is closer to a
> \"1\". But his top is negative 1 and change.
I did not say Leroid didn\'t run a good race. It was a good race. I don\'t believe it was significantly better than the previous three to four races hes run however. I have many reasons for thinking that. One I haven\'t mentioned and don\'t intend to for fear of being ridiculed, but its a reason that cinches it for me.
Even the Atto I give Leroid credit for is more than likely enough to beat the U.S. milers as it has been prior to the Atto. It is not good enough however to beat Dubawi, Starcraft and Ritko. The proof will come on B.C. Day.
As far as Super Frolic thats a race that clearly is better than it looks and that is the point. He has not been a horse that is impacted long by fast figures and Cerin has given him some time to recover, but it was undoubtedly a bigger effort than it appears and that is the issue. If it was a bigger effort than it appears did it take more out of him than a 2 otherwise has in his past performances?
I want to say one other thing here. I don\'t fully understand TGraphs system. I\'ve tried to figure it out, but I\'m in the dark on most of it and don\'t expect them to enlighten me. This is their enchilada. But i will say this: If there is merit to doing turf races (or even other races) \"on the horses\" as opposed to pars/variants and the comparison of finals times between races, what you are going to at times get are races where the internal fractions (or pace) slow the final time and yet where the final performance figure can be fast, if not very fast.
What you are going to get with factoring horses that normally run 1.5\'s and 3.5\'s is figure factoring on beaten lengths where pace played perhaps a significant role in the final race time and even individual horses efforts. Some horses may handle a significant early foot battle better than others. Leroid may be one of those types. If there something about Leroids Atto that stands out it may be the internal fractions he ran upon. He won on those fractions when others quit. But you can\'t look at that race compared to the 6th and not suspect that it can\'t comparatively stand up as a negative 1 or faster when the 6th is about a 2 at best.
If the Atto has merit as a negative race that merit is internal and if it is internal TGraph is much bigger into pace than they are discussing. The pace in that event would be being absorbed or subsumed in the figure.
If anyone followed me, lets discuss again how good/fast Super Frolics Pacific Classic was, but not restrict ourselves to beaten lengths among the entries.
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Just finished watching a replay of the 1989 Kentucky Derby again. Several things jumped out again.
If you watch it check out the start where Sunday Silence nails Triple Buck and then the Stretch Drive where he gets into Northern Wolf. Additonally, look as Silence staggering all over that stretch.
After that watch it again and check out how Easy Goer is slipping and sliding. He couldn\'t get the traction he needed. Fate.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2005/derby_history/derby_charts/years/1989.html
