Ripley's

[TGJB]

So I got my online edition of the Thoroughbred Times today, and went to the \"Ragozin Insider\"-- they call it that as a joke, since any horseman in the world (\"clients\") can look to see the winning figures of the major stakes that were run recently. Anyway, they gave Borrego a 5, 3 points WORSE than they gave him in the Pacific Classic. Yeah, that\'s likely, and I can\'t even imagine how far they had the rest of the field going back off their recent numbers.

But that\'s not the good part.

Ragozin had NY bred 3yo The Daddy, winner by just a neck over A.P. Arrow in the Super Derby, running a 4. That\'s a point (2 lengths at this distance) BETTER than Borrego. In other words, if he or the second horse had run in the Gold Cup, instead of Borrego, they would have won even easier than Borrego did, and that\'s before even looking at the extra point in weight they would have gotten as 3yos. And since the sixth horse in the Super Derby was only beaten 4 lengths, he would have won the Gold Cup as well.

I can just hear Durkin\'s call-- \"The Daddy is in hand! IN HAND!!\"

Does anybody out there really believe that?

[high roller]

hi, this to me is schocking, i can\'t honestly believe that its true, maybe they will correct it?

[congaree1]

Well, they did run the JCGC in 2:02 and change and most of the field just stopped, as Borrego look liked he was a car going by them.On the other hand i am asking myself why is this of any importance to you,since you make your own #\'s and Rags makes his.Lets help one another pick winners and cash tickets! I wish this board had more input on handicapping and opinions or on horses that may be value and have a chance to make us winners.

CON

[TGJB]

I have said this about a hundred times-- the single most important handicapping decision you can make concerns what data you use-- garbage in, garbage out.

From my point of view, they have customers, and I want them. Some of the theoretical questions are tough to follow for the man in the street-- but stuff like this is not.

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

Seems extremely unlikely that Borrego regressed 3 points in that race.  

I guess the problem is that if he runs poorly in the BC Classic, it won\'t prove much.  Coming off a 4 point top on T-Graph, I guess you make him somewhat likely to bounce.  Rags thinks he is slow to begin with, so they are expecting a poor race.  

I guess we will see what you gave The Daddy when the Preview comes out, but off the top of my head, without much analysis, a \"4\" on Rags for that race seems OK.  That would be a \"1\" on Tgraph.  He was coming off of a \"0\" and a \"1\" in his previous two races, albeit sprints.  Morales had him extremely wide all the way around the track, in what was a very bad ride in my mind, despite the fact that he got complimented by the trainer and announcers for his \"patience\".  He was so patient he was 3 wide around the first turn with the clear speed.  And chose never to clear off despite very slow fractions.  

Not sure if your point was just how wrong Rags got the JC Gold Cup or how wrong he got both races.  The first seems obvious, the latter is debatable, at least to me (which ain\'t worth much.....)

[File Folders]

Me too Conagree. More winners, fewer Thorograph sinners!

One of the top handicappin angles is to toss this site\'s ROTW selections. That should tell you something. Lets try it for this week. They pick on their speed numbers. We toss those picks and cash. Its Gar ran teed.

I\'m bookin the head to head matchup in the Classic, The Daddy vs. Borrego. you bet 5 on Borrego to win 4.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- correct on all counts. We had the Super Derby about the same as they did, on our relative scales.

By the way, from the same article, they gave RHT a 3. Meaning he would have finished dead even with The Daddy at weight for age, beating A.P. Arrow a photo. That aside, it\'s interesting because I had it quite a bit faster, and it was a tossup whether I made it a couple of points faster than that.

[davidrex]

   





Think of this board as t.v. w/commercials.

Jerry will always use HIS board for the advancement of t.g.
By reducing ctmc and asshandicapper maybe the info shall flo again!
PARTYpokerON!

[ruthlessman]

That does not make me feel real comfortable when I am deciding who to play in the classic. If you give him a -3 he probably pairs, -5 probably bounces. So if it is a toss-up in your eyes(-3 or -5) how can I play this race with any conviction.

[P.Eckhart]

Speed figures tell you how bad a horse isn\'t.
Performance figures tell you how good a horse is.

[congaree1]

Well said FILE MAN!Let\'s stick to the business at hand and cash some tickets.

[TGJB]

ruth-- it wasn\'t either of those numbers. I posted discussing the RHT race earlier (yesterday or the day before), when I discussed the Gold Cup figures. Read it, not all figures are that easy to do.

I made it about 60/40 the way I went with it at the time. Having now actually seen the race, I now make it about 80/20-- one of the issues with the way I did it was that it gave the fourth (last place) finisher a worse number than he had run in a long time. After seeing him stop to a walk 3 jumps after the wire, I believe it.

And no, I don\'t make figures based on visual observation.

[TGJB]

\"Some of the theoretical questions are tough to follow for the man in the street-- this is not\". Okay, it\'s obvious I was wrong about that.

I have to say,it\'s pretty amazing watching the total incoherence on the other board. The first two guys asked completely legitimate questions, like, did Ragozin really give out the numbers I said. No response from the Ragozin crew. Then chaos.

Amazing stuff.

[miff]

Jerry said

\"Does anybody out there really believe that?\"



Miff says:

In relation to all you wrote it seems highly unlikely that RAGS got Borrego correct.It is equally unlikely that Borrego improved some 7 lengths from his previous effort (while being held late), as you have concluded.

[marcus]

It\'s doubtfull anybody who understands racing would be that gullable - maybe someone over their got invited to the head table at a dinner party after the yaught cruise or something - the folks going to that site have a higher level of sophistication than even TBDN anticipate\'s and that\'s also pretty hard to belive - one would think making a demographical forecast would not be too complex . Maybe it\'s an attempt at some tongue and cheek type of professional ametuer patronage . - why ?  perhaps only for the simple reason that they can , maybe it\'s more of that corporate entitelment stuff ,  otherwise it\'s an ok read once in a while .