Giacomo Search

[richiebee]

There was a little back and forth last week between Bobphilo and I during which I blasted people who overanalyzed the San Rafael Stakes, a 4 horse race, 2 horses being Ky Derby contenders. My point subtle as usual was that mid January was not the time to exhibit serious symptoms of Derby fever.

As an exercise in boredom, I did a search on the TG board for Giacomo, last year\'s longshot Derby winner. One post, by a frequent contributor, seems to name both Giacomo and Derby second place finisher Closing Argument in the same post. The date: February 5, 2005, 3 months before the running of the Derby. As I recall the author of this post ended up liking High Limit on Derby Day.

[bobphilo]

Richiebee,

Actually, I agree with you completetly that to put a lot of weight on a 1 mile race in Jan. with only 2 serious Derby contenders (one of whom is making his seasonal debut) as a Derby preview is insane. Your Giacomo example is right on the money there.
My interest in the race was almost purely from a handicapping point of view as it raised some interesting issues, i.e. how does one determine if the pace was slow or fast, how important is a clear early lead regardless of pace and how and when do any of the above effect the outcome of races, etc.
From a Derby prep point of view it, watching the race and looking at he figure just told me the 2 horses have some ability and seem to be on track in their preperations. A lot can happen between now and the first Sat. in May.

Bob