7th big a

[cubfan0316]

why was there no inq. in this race? the winner clearly smacked the 3rd place horse in the strecth. simple, the stewards had the 5.

[richiebee]

Cubfan:

   By your reasoning, Dominguez (rider of the 3rd place finisher) and Contessa (trainer of the 3rd place finisher) also \"had\" the winner, because neither one of them claimed foul.

   If you really think the stewards are betting on the races, you shouldn\'t be betting on the races.

[cubfan0316]

that should not matter genius, when horses swerve in the stretch and horses check, isnt that a automatic inq.? mabe you should watch a couple of races.

[richiebee]

Cubfan:

I have watched enough races to know that the NY stewards are on record as saying that they will not take a horse down if that horse\'s actions did not affect the order of finish.

In this particular case, the stewards obviously felt that Liquor Cabinet\'s brush with Lieutenant Danz did not cost Lt Danz first or second place, and took no action.

The truth is that if you watched the race, you watched Liquor Cabinet go by Lt Danz and Manchurian (the Pletcher trained favorite who I can safely assume that you bet) like a freight train goes by a hobo. If anything, his bearing in and brushing made LC\'s margin of victory smaller than it should have been.

In NY, the only time where there is the kind of \"automatic\" inquiry you describe is when a horse unseats its rider, or when a horse refuses to leave the gate, or breaks from the gate far behind his field.  

[BitPlayer]

Richiebee -

I didn\'t play the race and only saw the replay once.  You may be right that the ultimate outcome was correct, but this is an area where I think racing/stewards can do a better job of customer relations.  Where it\'s obvious that something happened in the stretch (didn\'t the announcer even comment on it during his call?), the stewards should have a way of letting the bettors know that they\'re paying attention, even if it\'s not a full-blown (time-consuming) inquiry.  Maybe they should have the announcer say, for example, that an outrider has talked to Ramon Dominguez and he told them he wasn\'t significantly impeded, so no further inquiry will be conducted.

As an aside, I\'ve been looking in the Redboard room to try to get a handle on ThoroPattern patterns.  The Pair/Pair/Pair thing you brought up last year seems quite powerful.  I\'m thinking maybe even two Pairs is enough.  I\'ll post when I\'ve collected more data and had a chance to look it over.

[cubfan0316]

clearly wasnt the winner, but second place? definetly poss.

[cubfan0316]

pletchers horse was retreating badly

[richiebee]

Bit:

   Before \"quick official\", there seemed to be a lot more rider claims of foul.

   Rather than focus on the non- inquiry, I would rather observe the following: Lt Danz, second race long, second race Contessa, ran a very good race. LD broke from the far outside post, raced wide the entire trip, accelerated wide into the far turn, and was tiring at about the time he brushed with Liquor Cabinet.Winless in 05/06, I would bet LD right back if he gets another Inner try-short or long.

   Liquor Cabinet now has been visually impressive in 2 tries over the inner and looks to be sound for the first time in his career. LC now qualifies as an animal with \"Inner fortitude\", likes distance, and could win back at a price if thrown back into a limited stake on the Inner Course.

   Achilles of Troy beat nothing and proved nothing yesterday. His handlers obviously agree with TGJB\'s belief that it is difficult to ship from cold clime to warm to race because Paragallo said that A of T will be shipped to Classic Mile Farm to be pointed towards Fla prep races. Always a tough call for an owner/trainer, because the horse is obviously thriving in Ozone Park. Fans of Ancient mythology should have done well in the late Pick 4 at Big A, which featured both Hercules and Achilles.

  You could get in a lot of trouble discussing the pair/pair/pair pattern, as certain factions have made it clear that racehorses are not machines, are not that consistent, that patterns such as that evidence a self fulfilling prophecy, etc. Its actually a fascinating debate, especially when it does not dissolve into childish (though at times admittedly hillarious) name calling.

  With regards to the Thoro Patterns (TPs), I think there is debate even within the TG camp as to the efficacy of the TPs. I do not have time to undertake a study of the strike rate of these patterns, and wish you luck in your endeavors. I have spoken to TGJB about releasing statistics which would reveal which TPs are the most potent, the most predictive of a winning effort.

  TGAB once revealed to me that there are over 24,000 possible TPs. Due to duplication, the number of TPs which go into the gate each year is a smaller number. It would be informative to see a list of all TPs, most potent to least potent. If the price was right, some might be willing to pay for it.

[BitPlayer]

Richiebee -

Thanks for the heads-up.  I\'ve been called names on this board before without lasting emotional scars, so I\'ll probably risk it.  I\'m also aware that the way the pattern data was compiled may limit its utility in situations (e.g., layoffs, stretching out) that were excluded from the data set.

As I suggested in my earlier message, one of my issues is whether having so many ThoroPatterns is really useful.  For example, are 5yo and up really any different in Jan-Mar than they are in Feb-Apr?

In any event, to keep things simple, I\'m starting with the limited universe of Jan-Mar 3yos running on dirt (tis the season), for which there are only 64 possible patterns.  I\'ve found 48 of them.

These early returns reveal that, in that group, Pair/Pair/Pair has the highest percentage of top or pair races, and X/X/X (think Greeley\'s Galaxy) has the worst percentage.  More importantly (to me), however, all 4 of the combinations ending in Pair/Pair are in the top 7 and the three X/X patterns that I have found (I\'m missing Pair/X/X) are the bottom three.  This suggests to me that the first race in the sequence may not be that important, which would allow combining patterns to get better sample sizes.  It also raises the issue of whether there really are \"patterns\" or just more and less reliable indicators of ability/fitness level, but that\'s for another day.

[marcus]

Very interesting post on TP , I\'m not exactly sure what bit was saying in his last sentence but I get most the rest of it  . I\'m guessing that 3 yo\'s running a pair at this time of year , in the early season cycle of development , has got to have good implications for the future of that horse .

 I\'d like to see additional TP applications that may offer value , for instance . ie , having TP break it down by Sire , Age , Fillies & Mares , particular track etc + .

I look forward to hearing more about these nuances and issues with regard to TP that are being addressed by you guy\'s and JB/TG becouse I\'m sure alot of folks are thinking about this stuff .

Also , and this just in ... Thanks Jerry for the win and exacta in the ROTW , it seems I\'ll be looking at GPX tomorrow after all ...    

[richiebee]

Bit:

   I understand your approach to evaluating patterns, in this case using developing 3YOs as the focus of the study.

   What I would be interested in investigating with regards to the T-Patterns is not how effective they are in pointing out horses who are likely to \"top\", but rather horses who are likely to WIN. Basically this would involve taking the day\'s winners from any track or any number of tracks, visiting the RB room, and noting, in retrospect, what the winner\'s pattern was. I\'m sure that over time, and with a large enough sample, certain TG patterns would prove to be very potent in terms of predicting a winning effort; as an extension, hopefully one would be able to identify patterns which are predictive of winners paying decent mutuels.

   In any given race, it is possible that 2 or 3 or 4 animals will match or exceed their best effort; only one of these animals will visit the winner\'s circle, and it is the winner which we are all trying to identify.

[richiebee]

Marcus:

     If you play GPX Monday, watch out for \"sneaky\" Eibar Coa. Last Monday Coa \"snuck\" down to Hallandale, had one mount, and rode a $17 winner for Mike Hushion.

     Tomorrow, \"sneaky\" Eibar is named on both halves of a Violette entry in Race 6, and has mounts in races 8- 10.

     Glad all the TG gang feasted on the ROTW while I was shoveling snow.

[flushedstraight]

Did anyone catch the entire head-on relpay???

On the track signal I was watching (OTB channel on cable in NYC) when they came to the top of the stretch during the head-on replay, the screen switched to the show photo for a bit and then switched back to the head-on after the (non?) incident. I checked the replay on youbet, and sure enough, the footage in question is missing, clearly edited out.

Ramon not claiming foul was also puzzling, but maybe after you win a BC race there aint much difference between 2nd & 3rd in an AQI alw. Either that or somtimes you just have to play along for the good of the game and the good of you career.

[richiebee]

Are you saying that Rosemary Wood has been reincarnated, and now works in NYRA\'s Audio- Visual Department?

[marcus]

Thanks for the heads up - I\'m going look at the card after coffee ...
I hope you where shoveling in Maryland or Virginia rather than up here in the North Country .