Lawyer Ron

[marcus]

I\'m thinking Lawyer Ron is due for a bounce saturday , those last 3 big numbers ran in a relatively short time frame ( and after 8 really slow numbers also w/ poor spacing ) have got to be taking there toll ...

[shanahan]

if he does, I\'ll be surprised...winning so easily down at LAD last month...well, it was just really impressive, lots of time..Holthus horse won\'t bounce till it gets too close to the Derby and he has run too many times - look for it in late March.  It\'s a special looking animal up close.

[marcus]

LR could still win w/ a backward move , If I do anything with that race , on a lark , I might take a shot w/ the outside horse on the forgers line and breeding for distance on the dam side and use the big guy as a saver , but I\'m not getting too involved in that one. That last one by LR was very impressive and  his pattern is very special as well and I hear what you are saying about the trainer . I\'m just having a difficult time with looking at those last 3 numbers out of context with the ones that preceded them . I guess if they are back numbers that are no longer relevent , this could be a Triple Crown winner or at least the chances of accomplishing that are better than most people would guess .  Very interesting Horse and Pattern though , I was seeing this one bounce now and then come back in the Derby ...    

[Dana666]

He only ran 4 times on a regular track, all others Polytrack or grass; He had a right to improve in his last few races; if anything, he\'ll pair up or maybe even improve some; the larger question, as some have mentioned, is how he\'ll hold together as the Derby gets closer and the distances get longer,can he mantain that form over a few more months? That\'s tough for any horse. Looks like it\'ll be a sloppy track at Oaklawn today, and that shouldn\'t bother him, either.

Hey, maybe you have an intuitive flash, and I always say go with those moments, but there\'s no logical way you make a case for this guy to get beat in this race, esp. if you saw his last three races and the gallop out afterwards. I wish I took him at 18-1 in the future book, just so hard for me to bite on that wager!

Good luck to all.

[bobphilo]

Lawyer Ron just looks too good. I hear it\'s supposed to rain and Oaklawn really gets heavy when wet but he improved in his only try in the slop (his maiden win).
He\'ll probably go off odds-on but since the crowd may have trouble deciding over Mark of Success, Music School and Steppenwolfer, they may offer value under the Lawyer in the Exacta. I also like Agrapha underneath. It may be crazy betting a firster in a stakes race but this guy has been working half miles from the gate in 47 and change breezing and 46 and change handily. Worth a shot at a price.

Bob

[shanahan]

we got @ 1/2 inch of rain overnite...they are predicting a \"good \" track by SW post time.  The outside posts - good earlier, were bad yesterday and the track is high on the outside per the exercise riders after the work on it earlier this week. FWIW - I htink LR is the real deal.

[marcus]

I know guy\'s - the balance of the field is in pretty tough  , and I\'ve been wrong before and I\'ll be wrong again , but I don\'t see it as give away day at OP either  ...

[richiebee]

Shanahan:

       Liked the way Brownie Points looked winning the Martha Washington H. yesterday. This 3YO (April foal) is now a stakes winner on turf and dirt.

       The mutuel was surprising in that although both of BP\'s wins had been on the grass, the pedigree (Forest Wildcat/ Stylish Society, by Forty Niner)slants towards the main track. I look forward to following her in the future and believe her pedigree will allow her to go a bit further.

       The fact that I was 4 deep in the late double and failed to connect does nothing to detract from her performance.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

If I was prone to question Lawyer Ron, (I\'m not), this would be the 1st race where I\'d take my shot.

The longer he runs, the bigger his wins have been. Today he shortens up marginally.  

Additionally, he ran a very big race last by my calculation. Add the weight, New Track, shortened distance and possible fatigue issue from the last and thats the recipe for a possible odds on upset.

His owner died in his swimming pool this week. If he is a genuinely good horse as some suspect, not sure how that Karma reflects upon Ron. It could jinx him, it could make him this years Human Interest story. Regardless, it was certainly a bad break to go with a promising three year old. Then again, maybe Hine\'s last thoughts were pleasant, like \"You know, I think I\'ve got the Derby Winner.\"

marcus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I know guy\'s - the balance of the field is in
> pretty tough  , and I\'ve been wrong before and
> I\'ll be wrong again , but I don\'t see it as give
> away day at OP either  ...
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 02/25/06 01:26PM by
> marcus.

[marcus]

CTC - It\'s a pretty fair guess for LR to bounce now and for a couple of other horse\'s  to improve now also , for me the question is who and by how much . CH is the only one that I would hate to lose too if I went w/ LR becouse of the breeding info on CH\'s dam side    -  maybe MS will pop 2nd lasix  ... If LR was a value ( for example 4-1 )  the bet would be , if this one doesn\'t bounce , you get 10 bucks  ...  

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Celluloid Hero caught my eye on consistency, a race over the strip and the slight weight concession. He may have the right pace preference for this race depending upon the track. I also like Glitterman\'s. Other than the low dam side dosage, I didn\'t see much to be overly concerned about. Caveat I did not thoroughly review that pedigree. Obviously Music School is a threat. Will probably be second choice.

Traveling Leroy has the potential to make it a hotly contested pace. That could impact both Lawyer Ron and Music School. That track is fair and a warm pace will take some starch out of the front runners.

If that happens Hero\'s chances increase and you have to factor Steppenwolfer as well.

Its Lawyer Ron\'s race to lose. I\'m gonna watch and root for him this time.

marcus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTC - It\'s a pretty fair guess for LR to bounce
> now and for a couple of other horse\'s  to improve
> now also , for me the question is who and by how
> much . CH is the only one that I would hate to
> lose too if I went w/ LR becouse of the breeding
> info on CH\'s dam side    -  maybe MS will pop 2nd
> lasix  ... If LR was a value ( for example 4-1 )
> the bet would be , if this one doesn\'t bounce ,
> you get 10 bucks  ...

[Dana666]

Not sure what the number would be, but visually it seemed to me that he bounced badly. He was lucky to win, shows he\'s got some guts, too. He went way too fast early, he\'s never been that rank before (that\'s not a good sign at all), and he really had to dig down late. It will be very interesting to see what happens from here. Can\'t say I was very impressed with that race, but then again, the mark of a good horse is he wins even when it\'s not his best day, and that sure wasn\'t his best day. Was that track very slow???

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not sure what the number would be, but visually it
> seemed to me that he bounced badly. He was lucky
> to win, shows he\'s got some guts, too. He went way
> too fast early, he\'s never been that rank before
> (that\'s not a good sign at all), and he really had
> to dig down late. It will be very interesting to
> see what happens from here. Can\'t say I was very
> impressed with that race, but then again, the mark
> of a good horse is he wins even when it\'s not his
> best day, and that sure wasn\'t his best day. Was
> that track very slow???

This is also going to be a very interesting day for figure assignment. The track rating changed from Fast to Good to Fast again. This was a day when there appeared to be distinct surface speed fluctuation. Overall, the times were not sharp and the track was certainly not Glib, but the Southwest Stakes on raw time was simply pedestrian. It\'s why I\'m here today. Very confusing.

Found this blurb in the Online Daily Racing Form:

\"We wanted to get away from the field if we possibly could and pick the part of the racetrack we wanted to be in,\" said Bob Holthus, who trains Lawyer Ron:

 http://www.drf.com/news/article/72440.html

Apparently, there were path issues. At least per Holthus.


 

[Saddlecloth]

dont know what the number will be but the race before a pretty fast horse went the mile in a tick slower and that horse is a newly turned 5 year old, so my guess is the number is pretty good.

now, he seemed pretty rank, but there is still two months to go.

[miff]

With the six weeks off, he may have been too fresh. I have never seen LR pull before so maybe that was it or he may have been sent too hard and just grabbed on.