sweetnorthernsaint

[jett]

I know this might sound crazy but, based on what I\'ve been reading on some non-sheet handicapping sites,I don\'t think Brother Derek is going to be the favorite.The conventional wisdom appears to be toss all the speed and bet closers,Point Determined comes up a lot.

[jimbo66]

The morning line in the Derby is never very good, but I bet Battaglia puts him at 8-1.

As for Brother Derek, his bandwagon does seem to be emptying.  I would guess he could be the 9-2 favorite.

As I read the various prognasticators and update my expected odds, I have something like:

Brother Derek 9-2
Lawyer Ron 6-1  (yes Jerry, that means I owe you a beer)
SweetNorthernSait 7-1
Barbaro 9-1
Sinister Minister 10-1
Point Determined 10-1
Bob and John 12-1
AP Warrior 15-1

The rest 25-1 to 80-1

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Kasept Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > >
> > As someone who is around the horse, a.m.
> rider,
> > groom and connections every morning here in
> > Louisville, anyone leaning in this direction
> is
> > encouraged to NOT DEVIATE from their
> thinking...
> >
> > He\'ll work 6f tomorrow before dawn under his
> > regular morning rider. Let me limit my
> enthusiasm
> > by simply saying he is a fascinating
> animal...
> >
> > (In one of those interesting Derby trivia
> sidebars
> > (omens?), SNS\'s morning man is veteran
> Ernesto
> > Ferdinand. And what horse should be
> celebrating
> > the 20th anniversary of their Derby victory
> this
> > year???)
> >
> >
> >
> > FYI... Tonight on Talking Horses Stakes
> Preview
> > Show:
> >
> > Barcley Tagg on Showing Up/Funny Cide...
> >
> > Scheduled call ins from:
> >
> > Bill Mott (Angara/Pommes Frites in Beauguay;
> My
> > Lordship in the Hollywood Wildcat)
> >
> > Tom Albertrani (Bernadini in the Withers;
> > Woodlander in the Miami Mile; Deputy Glitters
> in
> > Derby)
> >
> > SIRIUS Channell 125, 4-7pm EST... Replayed
> > Saturday 10-1pm EST Channel 123...
> >
> > Or on the Net:
>
> I know he\'s a fascinating animal. That\'s why I was
> the first one to bring him up on this VERY board
> and tout him as a very powerful long striding
> horse. I haven\'t seen one motor like him in many
> years. I instantly ran to my computer to post here
> following the Jan 7th race. I have a lot of
> respect for this board...
>
> Dominguez broke his maiden that day and I\'m sure
> he\'s missing not being on him anymore. Kent D will
> do fine in the big dance and I might be able to
> cash a very nice future...
>
> I hope he\'s 5-1 next Saturday. Anyone got any
> predections of what his off odds will be?
>

I\'ll vouch for Uncle Buck. I was aware it was a good race but when he forced me to look closely at the card and follow up by posting the conclusion that he was the best horse that ran that day at Aqueduct. The other big horse that ran that day was of course was Achilles of Troy. Any other year I\'d say we have our winner. This year, I am not certain.

Off odds of 14-1  

Its the Grade II Illinois Derby for crying out loud. He beat no one.

CtC

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Shanahan-- Please explain the comment about being
> cautious with figures since the BC. As opposed
> to... having four martinis, putting my feet up,
> and using ink instead of a pencil with an eraser,
> like I did before the BC?
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 04/28/06 02:45PM by
> TGJB.

Andy Beyer said he made his figures with a bottle of scotch. Its a well know fact that all figure makers drink. Its like being in Wisconsin. You know they are all drunk.

[shanahan]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Shanahan-- Please explain the comment about being
> cautious with figures since the BC. As opposed
> to... having four martinis, putting my feet up,
> and using ink instead of a pencil with an eraser,
> like I did before the BC?
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 04/28/06 02:45PM by
> TGJB.


JB - not sure where you get the martini comment - wasn\'t mine...in any case, the point is that since I have been a customer, TG has been insistent that the progressing horse (small, steady moves forward) is the horse to have...no?  I have not mastered the patterns yet - probably never will - but I try and follow the horse that does not make the BIG move early in his/her career, then disappear.  If there is one thing I have learned and appreciated, that\'s it.  

Why the sarcasm?  If you\'re referring to the BC comment, well...you yourself revisited those # many times, no?  Sounded almost like our friend JKEV - without the profanity.

[shanahan]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:

>
> Off odds of 14-1  
>
> Its the Grade II Illinois Derby for crying out
> loud. He beat no one.
>
> CtC
>
>
>I have really only picked one rather longshot in the drby or preps, and that was indeed WAR EMBLEM...in both the IL Derby & KY Derby (qualifies as redboard for sure, eh?)...but CTC - am I crazy or is this horse the most appropriate TG pattern horse going in?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

shanahan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
>
> >
> > Off odds of 14-1  
> >
> > Its the Grade II Illinois Derby for crying
> out
> > loud. He beat no one.
> >
> > CtC
> >
> >
> >I have really only picked one rather longshot
> in the drby or preps, and that was indeed WAR
> EMBLEM...in both the IL Derby & KY Derby
> (qualifies as redboard for sure, eh?)...but CTC -
> am I crazy or is this horse the most appropriate
> TG pattern horse going in?
>
>
>

Brother Derek has a slew of graded stakes
Lawyer Ron is undefeated on the dirt
Barbaro is undefeated and a media darling
Bob and John and Point Determined and Sinister Minister come in for the best trainer in the game
Pletcher brings in Keyed Entry who beat SnS, along with the Mighty Mighty Bluegrass Cat and Sunriver if hes lucky. You don\'t buck Todd Pletcher.

I really don\'t know what the Tgraph pattern is on SnS because I make my own numbers for the cards with the big races. (Jazz up stock numbers actually) Last I heard Tgraph had him for a Neg 1 in his last. Which would be a competitive Derby number.

[kev]

What\'s it going to be a -1 or what?? Any case, here\'s my two cents. I will add him in my tickets only because of the nice moving forward line. I see him bouncing in the derby how high? I don\'t know, but I wouldn\'t key him hoping he only bouncing 2pts and will win. From 2000 to 2005 there\'s been 8 horses that has run neg #\'s in their last race right before the derby and only 1 win and 1 2nd, 1 3rd, odds 9-2 3rd, 5-2 loss, 21-1 loss, 6-1 loss, 4-1 won, 5-1 2nd, 8-1 loss, 9-1 loss. Point is anyone keying him and why? Are you seeing another move coming from him? Then again if he wins, and one of my other horses run up with him, I could live with that.

[shanahan]

Kev, I am seeing it as no bounce...continued small move forward...and keying him as a TG \"classic progression\" horse.  

Hey CTC - I\'m the flashy bull nut, and I am playing a simple tri at this point of SNS/FB-Jazil/all and all other combos with those keys.  Of course, if they don\'t get in, I\'m pretty much OoL...but it\'s a helluva lot of fun, isn\'t it?

[MO]

This field is so pitiful that a zero (0) will be good enough.

[kev]

A zero will get it done when BOB&JOHN pairs up that last number of his. I\'m down with FLASHY BULL also hope he gets in.

[NoCarolinaTony]

I would point him for the 3 yo turf races at Colonial all worth 1 Million.

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Plus you got Steve Talking the Horse up on Talking Horses- and every guest he brings on loves the horse. My Guess is 5-1 right now.

This has become officially the wiseguy horse.

NC Tony

[bellsbendboy]

There is far too much pace for a zero to win.  Flashy Bull is eligible for a one other than, in which, at this track, this meet, he would not be favored, and may not win. I must consider the possibility that you and Chuckles toss darts together. bbb

[kev]

\"Flashy Bull is eligible for a one other than\"
So was GIACOMO last year. Only four horses in this has has broken threw to a neg. I didn\'t say FB was my top pick, has a crack at hitting the board, B&J is my pick.