SoCalMan2 Wrote:
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> Chuckles,
>
> Are you a classhandicapper imposter? I am having
> a hard time understanding your response. The
> heading on this thread is about Private Vow. As
> far as I can tell, you wrote in your first post
> that, among other things, PV needed to overcome a
> light 3 yo campaign. I took issue with that
> single item (I acknowledged that he may not be a
> contender, but his light prep was NOT a problem).
> In your response to me, I am not sure what you
> have to say about his light campaign. If there is
> something, it went right over my head. I think the
> stuff about Asmussen and White Mercedes may have
> been about that topic, but that stuff is way too
> obtuse for me to understand. If you have
> somethign to say about PV\'s light campaign, I am
> not sure what that is.
>
> As far as the possibility of overcampaigning, I
> guess you do not believe in El Gran Senor\'s adage
> about the lemon. While the bounce theory may be
> overdone in some corners, it is rare to find a
> person who does not believe that horses\' have form
> cycles. I can\'t think of a single sport of any
> kind where an athlete gives peak performance after
> peak performance without a sub-effort being thrown
> in anywhere at some point. Secretariat and
> Monarchos both lost the Wood Memorial before
> running the only Derbies (other than Sham\'s) in
> under 2 minutes. If they were capable of throwing
> in a sub-equine effort, why can\'t any horse? I am
> not saying that Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron are
> in deep doo doo because of their lengthy
> campaigns. I am saying that I think they are at a
> greater risk of running an off effort due to their
> preparation than Private Vow is due to his. The
> regression is coming at some point. The more
> activity at the top effort they have, the more
> vulnerable they are to reaching the regression
> point. Maybe trainers who read this forum can
> weigh in because you and I are probably the least
> qualified people to discuss this. All other
> things being equal, I would rather be betting a
> relatively fresh horse coming into the Derby
> rather than a horse that may have completed his
> current stage of development and may be in for
> some regression before continuing on with the
> natural development process.
>
> Anyway, I am eager to have a race to handicap so I
> can see if any of this stuff is relevant anyhow.
> I think the way the figures look on the page will
> have a far greater impact on my evaluation than
> any of this arcana we are jousting over.
>
> Regards,
>
> SCM2
Can\'t fill in all the blanks. Obviously, a light campaign in and of itself is not the death knell. Lammatara for instance, but that campaign was planned. Private Vow is not about light campaign alone. The discussion was not about light campaign. You can\'t restrict it to that. You can\'t modify the issue. The issue is multi faceted. If you fixate upon light campaign alone and head off tangentally in that direction should we follow when the logical flow of the discussion was more?
What I said to spa was this:
\"He\'s got an awful lot to overcome, including the
light 3YO campaign.\"
You even acknowledged that and want to discuss his light campaign alone in regard to viability? Does that make sense?
That said, his 2YO foundation is sufficient, even if notable only for beating second rate horses. His 3YO efforts within a light 3YO campaign are the issue when combined with a 2YO campaign that doesnt hold up under scrutiny.
You think you\'re talking to Class? I can\'t even mention who it feels like I\'m conversing with. Why is this necessary? Is it an implication and language barrier due to connotation and culture?
Private Vow does not have a managed light 3YO campaign issue. The tenor of the thread is not about light campaigns. It is about the viability of Private Vow considering the totality of circumstances including compelled light campaign.
If he did have a managed 2 race 3YO campaign, I would still disagree with your premise that light campaigns alone are not negative, but its not something I want to discuss and I\'m puzzled you intrepreted the thread to take it here. I\'m winnowing horses. That should be our focus.
I\'ve wasted too much time.
