The Watchmaker Factor

[richiebee]

TGJB:

    Did you mean Hoist the Flag, who made 4 lifetime starts, and not Hail to Reason (18 lifetime starts)? Raise A Native started only 4 times, but one of those efforts resulted in a stakes win. Danzig made only 4 starts, no stakes wins, but apparently showed brilliance in every stride he made in his abbreviated career. Kris S managed a stakes win in his short (5 race) career.

    The type of stallions I would be more concerned with include the following: Almostashar (AP Indy/ Louisiana)(7 starts, 2 LT wins), Calumar (Seattle Slew/ NY) (15 starts, 1 win)(actually Calumar\'s pedigree is impeccable, he is Alydar\'s half brother), Cartwright (Forty Niner/ Illinois)(unraced) and Outflanker (Danzig/Maryland)(unraced) (Actually Cartwright and Outflanker are very productive stallions).

    My point is that admission into the stallion ranks for lightly raced specimens is bound to have a long term effect on the overall soundness of the breed; of course at my age these long term effects may not be felt until long after I am terra firma.

[richiebee]

BP:

  Don\'t forget the German bred mare Noble Stella, who is putting together a solid graded stakes campaign here in NA for Roger Attfield.

[TGJB]

I thought HTR only ran at two, could be wrong.

But the point is this-- the characteristics a horse shows himself and those he passes on are not necessarily the same. Cougar\'s progeny weren\'t particularly good on grass, Groovy gets routers, etc.

[sighthound]

The trouble nowadays, as someone else mentioned, is so many trying to pick and choose big wins to make the stallion career.  Are they racing so little to avoid hurting a career record and the future stud fee (investment recoup), or is the horse that fragile?  

Racing has almost become the poor stepchild of the TB Breeding Business, a necessary evil so there\'s something to brag about in the ad.

This will make Chuckles teeth tingle - I don\'t consider all injuries the same in the \"breed to or not\" department.  If I had the right mare, I\'d run to Barbaro if he makes it to the shed - and I hope he does. He has alot to offer.   Hopefully people who think like Chuckles will keep the fee quite low the first two years

[richiebee]

TGJB:

    According to Blood Horse Stallion Register, HTR was a foal of 1958, started 18 times, and earned $328K.

    Hoist the Flag was champion 2YO in 1970 after 2 starts. He came back as a 3YO and won by 15 lengths, then won the 7 furlong Bay Shore by 7 lengths in 1:21-- at the time the fastest 7 furlongs ever run by a 3YO in NY. HTF was injured in a workout prepping for the Wood and retired. I believe Sid Watters trained HTF.

    JB you are looking at the micro level-- yes, it seems every year you will have a Balto Star, sired by a stallion associated only with main track sprinters (Glitterman) winning turf marathons. I am more concerned with the long term effects, and as I have pointed out, less concerned than I should be because these effects will manifest themselves long after my passing.

[miff]

JB said:

\"But the point is this-- the characteristics a horse shows himself and those he passes on are not necessarily the same. Cougar\'s progeny weren\'t particularly good on grass, Groovy gets routers, etc.\"


Very true Jerry. I went to many sales and watched top \"eyes\" select on the basis of breeding, correctness et al. I\'ve never heard a selector shy away from a new stallion because of racing soundness.Most potential stallions have some soundness issues, you just don\'t hear about it because it\'s guarded by the connections and managed by the trainer/vet.


As you stated, it is a guess that a new stallion will or won\'t throw unsoundness.I believe that Barbaro, for example, will have a long line waiting for his services if he survives and makes it to the breeding shed.How he will fare as a stallion is anyones guess.


Chuck, believe me you are just guessing on future soundness. You can\'t imagine the research that goes into lineage history looking for the next freak, to no avail. No one knows for sure and that\'s why champions are sometimes purchased for small money and multi million dollar babies often can\'t beat a fat man.

Mike

[bobphilo]

True, horses don’t always pass along their characteristics but the fact is any characteristic a horse exhibits, whether its good (like the combination of traits for speed or stamina), neutral, (like color), or bad, (like unsoundness) begins with the genes, and a horse that you know is carrying a trait in his genes, is more likely to pass it along than one who doesn’t exhibit that trait and is more likely be free of it genetically as well.
A horse who’s legs could not stand up to the stress of even a moderate schedule is more likely to produce fragile offspring than one who has shown they can stand up to the rigors of racing for several seasons. Like, generally, begets like. Yes, in the short run, there may be exceptions, but in the long run, the laws of probabilities in genetics wins out.
In natural selection horses that breakdown young are removed from the gene pool and that’s how species remain sound. By breeding to individuals that nature would have culled out, we are keeping unsoundness in the gene pool.
Even in the short run, a breeder may stil want to breed to a horse like Barbaro for other reasons, but he\'s only deluding himself if he doesn\'t think he\'s increasing the chances of getting unsound offspring.

Bob

[miff]

Bob,

We may never know if Barbaro was unsound all along or just took a bad step.In today racing world many young horses are lightly campaigned and judiciously spaced.You may recall that was not the case years back and todays runners are never assigned the handicap weight of years ago. Connections can almost dictate the weight their horse will carry or they dont run. Racing secretaries are up against it to get the stars to run at their track.

There are no stallions that only throw soundness and let\'s not forget that the mare has some say in the process.Of course there are studs that have established a track record for their offspring.Some regular buyers avoid certain studs like the plague.

There aren\'t too many ventures that carry more risk than breeding horses.


Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TGJB:
>
>     According to Blood Horse Stallion Register,
> HTR was a foal of 1958, started 18 times, and
> earned $328K.
>
>     Hoist the Flag was champion 2YO in 1970 after
> 2 starts. He came back as a 3YO and won by 15
> lengths, then won the 7 furlong Bay Shore by 7
> lengths in 1:21-- at the time the fastest 7
> furlongs ever run by a 3YO in NY. HTF was injured
> in a workout prepping for the Wood and retired. I
> believe Sid Watters trained HTF.
>
>     JB you are looking at the micro level-- yes,
> it seems every year you will have a Balto Star,
> sired by a stallion associated only with main
> track sprinters (Glitterman) winning turf
> marathons. I am more concerned with the long term
> effects, and as I have pointed out, less concerned
> than I should be because these effects will
> manifest themselves long after my passing.

Danzig started 3 times, was undefeated. He was certainly a modern era top sire even if slanted to speed. Crossed with the right mare he could get a top horse.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/danzig

Raise a Native was undefeated in four races winning two stakes.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/raise+a+native

Both retired prematurely with soundness issues. Both sired more than their fair share of gimpy get.

As far as sprint runners siring route stakes horses and visa versa, that certainly happens. A good horse can come from anywhere, but the genetic propensities hold up in the long run. They are especially true in regard to soundness. Gimpy stallions generally sire large percentages of gimpy runners. Glitterman by the way was out of a full sister to Relaunch, who got his fair share of distance able horses. Waquoit and Skywalker among them if memory serves. Glitterman wasn\'t half bad on the Sire side either. Dewan was a very capable route horse. Note Dewan started 40 times, Glitterman 25. Where are these numbers now?

http://www.pedigreequery.com/glitterman

Hoist the Flag, Raise a Native, Danzig and a host of others have nothing in common with Barbaro. The latter didn\'t retired injured. He retired shattered and in the grave. Modern equine medical science brought him back from the dead and its a miracle he has survived this long. When Ruffian awoke from her anesthesia she thrashed and shattered her cast. Now they have anesthesia recovery flotation pools and equine body temperature water and much more than that. When a horse breaks down in the fashion Barbaro broke down the proper thing is the humane thing. If Barbaro where a 12 year old stable pony loved by all concerned he wouldn\'t have been put through this despite what is said the contrary. Clear heads and reality would prevail. It clearly won\'t prevail with the money at stake. This horse must not breed. The Preakness is evidence that he was not meant to.

miff wrote:

\"Chuck, believe me you are just guessing on future soundness. You can\'t imagine the research that goes into lineage history looking for the next freak, to no avail. No one knows for sure and that\'s why champions are sometimes purchased for small money and multi million dollar babies often can\'t beat a fat man.\"

Unfortunately, I\'m not guessing. The next freak is obviously difficult to predict, the next breakdown is not, but the evidence also indicates the point is moot and we won\'t have debates in four or five years about how many starts a a new racing prospect will be up to before he goes bad.

[bellsbendboy]

Could not agree more.  Barbaro, in my opinion, would be a can\'t miss stallion with his class, and combination of stamina and speed. The long face of Dr. Richardson was a bit disconcerting today. BBB

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

sighthound Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The trouble nowadays, as someone else mentioned,
> is so many trying to pick and choose big wins to
> make the stallion career.  Are they racing so
> little to avoid hurting a career record and the
> future stud fee (investment recoup), or is the
> horse that fragile?  
>
> Racing has almost become the poor stepchild of the
> TB Breeding Business, a necessary evil so there\'s
> something to brag about in the ad.
>
> This will make Chuckles teeth tingle -
> I don\'t consider all injuries the same in the
> \"breed to or not\" department.  If I had the right
> mare, I\'d run to Barbaro if he makes it to the
> shed - and I hope he does. He has alot to offer.  
> Hopefully people who think like Chuckles will keep
> the fee quite low the first two years

sighthound, think I remember prospective stud fees discussed when the surgery intially went so well. The number was 100K. Reasonable to me for a 1st year sire is a maximum of 10K, more than that is overly speculative. With 1st year sires that have been successful on the track they usually gouge the first couple years. By the time the first foals are yearlings they have an idea about conformation and sometimes the gouge fees don\'t even last until the 2YO\'s hit the track. The plans for Barbaro were not to offer him at a discount. The plans were to gouge while the gouging was good.

Not sure out of this crop who i\'d pay for, beginning to believe it is exceptionally weak. They made a huge mistake gelding Sweetnorthernsaint. Save your stud dollars and pay a nice reasonable fee for Forbidden Apple, he\'s going for 5k and you get a lot of pedigree and a robust sire.

[tmon]

I would be more interested in Deep Impact soon to be seen in France for the Arc. Sire KD winner and mare ran 2nd in the Epsom Oaks. 10 wins out of 11 races. Winner from 1 1/4 mile to 2 miles. Ran the 2mile in 3:13.40 setting a NTR.

[bobphilo]

Mike,

Barbaro’s potential to breakdown was very likely not detectable until that “bad step” at Pimlico. Quite frankly “bad step” is really a euphemism for the stride where the bone can no longer stand up to the stress it is placed under in racing. There was an attempt to attribute it to being hit by Brother Derek’s hoof but further examination showed no evidence that there was anything involved other than the bone giving way from the force of the impact between hoof and track. After that there were many truly bad steps as the joint loosened and the pastern shattered as well.
Yes, there are many genetic factors involved in determining the soundness of the offspring, including the contributions of the dam, but the soundness of the stallion, in terms of how he stood up to the stress of racing is a big factor. How else can we assess soundness? The tendency to be able to withstand the impact of racing by the bones and joints is governed by a number of genetic factors. As those that had to solve genetics problems in biology may remember, if you know the individual’s phenotype (what traits they exhibit), you automatically know at least half of their genotype, which is the totality of what they have to offer in breeding.
What’s disturbing is how many people and breeders seem to think that breakdowns are some kind of uncaused event, attributed solely to the ubiquitous “a bad step” and that the tendency to breakdown is, somehow unrelated to the principles of genetics. Funny how breeders stress the importance of genetics when it comes to positive things like speed.
Barbaro may well have other recessive genes in his genotype for soundness, which when combined with the right mares, will produce some sound offspring. However, one cannot totally ignore his breakdown and the implication that at least half his genotype contains genes that are suspect for soundness.
I 100% agree that breeding racehorses is one of the trickiest things in the world to do, unfortunately, in today’s industry, where horses are breed mainly for profit at the sales rather than on the track, breeders have little incentive to breed for soundness since it doesn’t take much soundness to breeze a fast furlong or two at a sale and buyers are not much put off by how many horses in the individual’s pedigree broke down on the track, as long as they flashed some speed in their brief careers. There will never be a change in the breakdown problem in racing unless breeders look at breakdowns as a serious factor in stallion selection.
Thanks for the interesting discussion.

Bob

[MO]

NEVER FALL IN LOVE WITH A RACE HORSE!!!!!!!!!!

This horse today still has only a 10% chance to survive, let alone make it to the breeding shed.

His recovery so far has been miraculous and I sincerely hope he does survive, but sentiment aside, this is a bet I would be willing to book..............