Calder Summit LITF

[marcus]

So he didn\'t like the big sandy ... I though Dubai Escapade was as clear a play against  and looked poised to bounce last week irregardless of where the race was run .

[NoCarolinaTony]

I\'d like to understand your rationale for that in race, against that field, maybe I can learn something..ie  read into that way. I can see it many times, not in this particlar case. I spoke to a well known trainer after the race and he told me it\'s the Calder surface for ship ins. Very tough track he said.

NC Tony

[marcus]

if your asking me - check out his sheet again if you still got it , the keeneland # 2 races back did something ... it caused a 4 pt bounce next time out and based on that , the negative kee # might knock him out for a while , so i would have needed to see a much better price on Dubai -  lot\'s of people belived this horse was a lock as the odds show - but obviously , it wasn\'t .

i seriously doubt dubai escapde will ever run a new top or pair-up the old one again and said i didn\'t like him in advance of the race on the tg board and in my ph contest ( now i could use the monks ) which i\'m presently tanking in - i did good in the bris contest though .

my view and rational for the race - before and after wasn\'t \" affected bahavior \" as somebody on the thread  attemted to articularlate . i don\'t forget that alot of money is lost by people who become too ego involved and make bad decisions when betting and engauge degenerative behavior .

don\'t listen to these types ( many of whom may feel morally right in losing and hide behind excuse\'s )  when going to the windows - it\'s your  money though ... + your break even point on even money is  % 50 percent winners , sorry but i aint that good to do that - miff was right about apropriate wagering strategy in that situation but not the horse\'s pattern ...

in the rooney i wound up using  1.leave me alone  2.annika lass  3.dubai escapade  

[miff]

NC Tony,

The rationale is someone is \"resulting\". The horse looked like a mortal lock going in but not bettable except for exotics/pick 3\'s.

Mike

[NoCarolinaTony]

I avoided the race in race wagering but singled her in the P5 which cost me. I thought even off the bounce effort, that was good enough to beat that field. But I need to resurect that races sheets.

Thanks guys for the insight.

Maybe became a little lazy looking at that race as the other races that day required more effort.

NC Tony

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I avoided the race in race wagering but singled
> her in the P5 which cost me. I thought even off
> the bounce effort, that was good enough to beat
> that field. But I need to resurect that races
> sheets.
>
> Thanks guys for the insight.
>
> Maybe became a little lazy looking at that race as
> the other races that day required more effort.
>
> NC Tony

Calder use to be tartan and there was a time when a very sandy mixture was placed over the old tartan surface. In those days the top flite horses would ship south in the winter before Hialeah or Gulfstream opened and they were always ripe for upset at Calder. Creme Fraiche was one of the few that won there, but I seem to recall him losing too. The track composition has changed but its still a challenge for first timers. A crucial factor at this time of year is the heat and humidity. Horses running at Belmont or Arlington are going to be in for a shock trying to keep their wind in that Blast Furnance. Getting from the car to the clubhouse can soak your shirt, but when you are wet those are the days you want to see odds on northern horses running without a work at the track. Calder also is one of the very few tracks with an air conditioned grandstand. So that should tell you something about the climate for running.

Dubai Escapade is a nice mare, but has she accomplished greatness? Isn\'t she kind of niched in Grade II sprints much like Lost in the Fog?

Finally, the local horses are not half bad. Theres nothing wrong with acclimated Florida Breds. They will ship North in the summer and do more damage than most trying to ship South.