The Plunger

[Uncle Buck]

Somebody out West has been plunging 5K or more win bets with a minute to post in select CA races. On Thursday in Golden Gate\'s 4th, the no 3 horse Turko Spirit went from 11-1 to 7/2 in one click with a minute to post. The horse won by two lengths.

In yesterday\'s Del Mar Derby, Get Funky was 9-1 as they were going in the gate. Coming out of the gate he was 6-1...

Someone is plunging big time on the right animals. Coincidence?

[P-Dub]

Buck,
I was on track and Get Funky was 6-1 going into the gate.  I know because I bet him and was hoping he would stay around 8-1.  But I see this happening all over and it does make you wonder.

[jmetro]

I always wondered why someone would wait until the last possible minute to post a large wager on a race that they obviously like.  

IMO an independent source, that promotes the integrity of wagering, needs to have access to the totes at all tracks.  Suspicous wagers, short payoffs or dramatic odds changes, like the ones mentioned in this thread, then came be researched for the time, amounts and sources of the wagers.  

All tracks have the ability to track the history of a wager within their tote system.  It shouldn\'t be hard to determine if someone is past posting or circumnavigating the system in a manner that allows a wager to be placed after the polls are supposed to be closed.  

It is my understanding that there is a \"National Racing Panel\" that is represented by a variety of race track officials, the media and some of the more knowledgeable players on each circuit.  I think Jim Quinn heads the panel.  Perhaps they could be the source and given access to the tote history of suspicous wagers.  It couldn\'t hurt the integrity, of a pari-mutuel system that is antiquated and so often scrutinized.

[miff]

As long as the bets are made before the start of the race, there is no issue.The appearance of impropriety alone is not relevant for me as a player.Bill Nader at NYRA has assured the players that there is no past posting. I have heard some sites bet up to 20 seconds after the start of a race but I was not able to confirm this.

About 7 years ago in NY, the mad bomber Richie, was betting 20k opening flash opening horses at 1/9. He did it for about as year,lost about a million and then went to jail for fraud.At that time many of us were making good money bucking some of the favorites he personally made.Players like that are most welcome.

[JR]

I\'m afraid the tracks don\'t feel it is in their best interest. They compete with one another for the big bettors. Providing them an edge is just an inducement. Investigating your best customers makes about as much sense as Arthur Andersen investigating ENRON. It didn\'t at the time and it was good wood while it lasted. Didn\'t I read recently that Magna had purchased AutoTote?

[gatodelsol]

Don\'t tell anyone but it has been going on all meet.  Check out the anomolies in the exacta, double and p3 payoffs and bet what you see.  The success rate at the DMR meet is unbelievable.

[Silver Charm]

These guys never last.

Also isn\'t this how they worked it in \"The Sting\"

[miff]

Gato,

I assume you mean the payoffs seem too low relative to the odds or are you thinking the races are fixed?


Mike

[high roller]

this is one of the dumbest posts i\'ve seen in some time. most big bettors are letting their wagers go at the last minute. all the \"plunge\" means is that the horse has a better chance relative to their closing odds. this has been occuring for about 50 years nothing new.

you sight two examples who both happen to have won. not exactly scientific.

[Uncle Buck]

The one that struck me was the 4th at GG on Thursday. I had never seen a horse go down 7.5 clicks in one flash.

As far as Get Funky - I was watching the race live from home and I Tivo\'d it. With 0 minutes to post he was 9-1, going in he flashed to 8-1 then coming out of the gate he was 6-1. The Tivo don\'t lie...

As for High Roller\'s opinion - it may be a dumb post but I was the victim of a Mexican Mafia scam (shame on me for falling for it) a few years back and ever since that time I have been leary of Cal racing and the underworld surrounding it. When I see things like this - it takes me back to the incidcent

[imallin]

Here\'s what i believe is happening...at least partially.

1) cancelled tickets. Horses such as Get Funky aren\'t going down to 6-1 b/c pepole are betting after the race starts, but horses who didn\'t break out of the gate all that well are getting refunded. Some places are allowing large players to cancel tickets after seeing 10 seconds of the race (hopefully not more). Next time a horse loses the rider at the start, it will go up in price..someone will be cancelling tix on that horse. Get Funky\'s drop in price was at least partially due to people getting refunds on other contenders.

2) Money being held and not going into the pools directly. If there\'s a horse sitting there at 3-1 with 2 mins to post and a big bettor believes that this horse should be 8-5, he\'s going to slam a few grand to win at that moment. Now, his money won\'t automatically adjust the price...it gets held in some kitty until the tote company decides to put it in the pool and make it reflect on the board. Some OTHER large player also sees 3-1 odds with 1 minute to post and hammers the horse also. That player doesn\'t realize that someone else hammered his 3-1 shot a minute earlier.....so, if there\'s a horse sitting there thats obvious value with 2 mtp, the best guys start pounding that horse and lots of times, the flood of money will all come in together....combine that with the cancelling of the tickets on the contenders who break slow and wallah, you are going to have a situation where the appearance of \'late money\' makes a horse go down drastically in price.

[marcus]

if cancelling tix after the gate opens is actually happening that would be taking the paramutual abuse issue to a new level .

the way i understand it , with my limited knowledge and experience not withstanding - that would relatively be the exact equivilent of getting the wager in after the race has begun .

[brokerstip]

Not sure I understand what you are saying....

I can say that I have also noticed the same moves (and they are not small) on odds mid-race with the \'bet\' horse almost always winning.

For example (and I can look up the race), the 1st leg of the Pick 4---the winner is 6 to 8-1 all 24 minutes....after the first half mile he is still 7-1. He wins and pays $9.00.

I am an east coastie that almost plays the west coast tracks exclusively (job and other considerations) ......I had 10 guys watch the replay and they left my table shaking their heads.

There is something amiss at Delmar in that regard.  

How about the last race Labor day exacta with 2 5-1\'s paying $40 for $2?

I was blaming the low payoffs on sheet players as the TG #\'s clearly pointed to some of those plays......but the last I heard Sheet Players don\'t get to bet after the 1st half mile.

[brokerstip]

Imallin,

Cancelling tickets.....I highly doubt it.

Late action.....Do you know the amount of win $ at Delmar?
Please....It takes a ton of money to move a horse from 7-1 to 7/2 in 30 seconds....

[P-Dub]

Buck,

I was at the track.

The tote had him at 6-1 as they were loading. Maybe the screen had a list of odds and hadn\'t updated it yet. But the on-track tote board had him at 6-1 as they were loading.