BCUP Bad Favorites

[scottv]

Here\'s my listing of bad favorites with explanations.  Comments are invited, goal is to throw out the bad one\'s obviously.


Juvenile.

CQuay---Horse will be overbet, looks like a glorified sprinter, and did not run well around two turns.  


Mile:

Aragorn---  Pace will hurt him and his last race is not the type you want going into a major BCUP race.  Can save ground though and that is only plus.

FM Turf:

No Beefs here


Distaff:

Tons of speed here.  FLeet Indian\'s post position will answer this question in my book.

Sprint:

Favorites appear tough.  I learned never to bet this race until PP are drawn. Henny or Bordonora or both will be excluded by the Draw.  Any comments are welcomed on this race.

Turf:

I don\'t like Americans.  They have beaten one another and that\'s it.

Classic:


Strange Race.  Benadini is too easy to pick, Lava Man can\'t handle surface, Invasor never runs a bad race but fitness is question.  Reminds me of 99 at Gulfstream.  

[NoCarolinaTony]

What about Euro now American Horse Transplants like Cacique?

NC Tony

[Ill-bred]

Siren Lure will take a lot of money in the Sprint, but he will probably be bettable and is one of the tougher reads for me.

He makes big impressive middle moves and then grinds in the stretch. I lean toward tossing him.

[scottv]

Be careful tossing a closer at CD.   He may not have enough to win, but second or third is achievable.  Post positions by HHughes and Bordonora will answer this race.

[marcus]

HH\'s line at end of 2 yo campaign really pointed this one out - no surprise that 3 yo numbers are also right there too .

 I don\'t want to say that I don\'t care how a horse runs a number becouse I should know better , but I\'m certainly  giving deference to numbers and pattern over running style\'s or projected pace senario\'s .

 When factors like pattern , numbers , breeding , running styles , projected pace senario\'s , timeliness , trainer & jockey patterns , starting positions etc coincide - that can add up to an \"A\" play if there is value .

 Looking for the Horse who is ready to run a top effort or peak performance based on numbers and pattern  that ( obvious groundloss not withstanding ) puts them there despite other considerations , to me is the most pervaisive criteria for determining a horse\'s chances of winning  ...