Hollywood Futurity Ideas

[Sandreadis]

Any thoughts on this race? I\'m looking for something to come off the pace. Came across a 30-1 ML #9 Senior. In his only race,Senior misses the break,settles in last,2 wide first turn,3-4 wide 2nd turn, rallies nicely to finish 4rth beaten 2 lengths by the 1 horse in this race Silent Soul/Gomez. Not a bad race for a 2yo going 2 turns at first asking,faced some tough circumstances and still finished up well. Going straight to a Grade 1 is a little ambitious.Anyone familiar with trainer Laura Wohlers?

[Dana666]

I think this renewal of the Hollywood Futurity is a wide open event; I can\'t blame you for looking at Senior, on the sheets he\'s in the mix, but I think they\'re asking much from him at this point, he\'s a bit green still, and I can\'t really feel like 30-1 would even be fair odds vs. this crew. The favorite Belgravia is attempting 2 turns, never an easy thing in a Gr. I event -- he\'s quality, but I\'m not completely confident of his chances either. Though he wouldn\'t surprise me. I\'m looking at the 2 O\'Neill runners, Liquidity and Notional. Liquidity is a top class sort who got a terrible ride last time, I\'d say he\'s ready to run his best race now -- I\'m hoping he can sit just off the pace, not too far back. Notional is a freaky sort who had a right to regress slighly in his last, I also expect him to bounce back. Principle Secret and Stormello are two other contenders but I think they may be over the top based on their performances on Breeder\'s Cup Day -- they are a tricky read, though I think Principle Secret is the classier of the two, but I don\'t really like his blowout work on December 2 (that tells me they\'re not sure he\'s all together -- he may have left his race on the polytrack that morning). Stormello has some heart, but I don\'t like his action at all, cushion track may bring out his flaws.
Good Luck!
My play is 2,6,10, mostly using them in multi-race exotics.

[marcus]

i\'m liking Notional a little , the price i dull and is stretching out . not the easist read on how he runs now but that last one was more than a slight regression . if runs back anywhere close to that debute number , he\'s a winner by open leanths  ...

[Dana666]

So many times when horses freak their first time out, it wrecks them, so I didn\'t see the last as a huge regression, there was no where for him to go; he wasn\'t going to run faster; the fact that he\'s worked well may signal he\'s ready to go back to the first race, as you say, even a few points slower, and he likely win this. He looks great in the Post Parade! Good Luck!

[Michael D.]

nice call on Liquidity there Dana.

nice colt. has :44 speed, and the pedigree to get ten furlongs (all kinds if stamina on bottom).

they rushed him a bit after the fast maiden win, but he\'s really coming along well.

makes my early top ten 3 yr old list.

[Michael D.]

btw ... can anyone remember a better Hol Fut field?

how about the Hol Starlet field tomorrow?

good riddance to the old Hol dirt surface.

while i really don\'t want to see poly take over at CD, Sar, Bel, or GP, it\'s getting hard to argue against the success of these artificial surfaces.

[marcus]

i see what your saying about Notionals 2nd race - i know w/ younger horse\'s , a 4 or 5 pt + up backward move is forgivable in many circumstances . i watched the race on tv and didn\'t exactly know what to make of it except that the winner\'s pattern did have a \"now\" look about it , really had done everything right ... nice and right call by those who had Stormello ! ...

[marcus]

good point about fut field and all hol fields as well this meet . i really don\'t understand the breeding side of the game - couldn\'t they breed a horse that , in theory , could withstand what is considured  \" the negative effects of the old tracks \"on the horse\'s . i don\'t know how much i\'m buying the cost effective angle as the reason for installing the new surfaces ...

 maybe the new surfaces are the future but i\'m beginning to wonder if these new surfaces are transitional - to what though ,that\'s the problem ...

 if racing surfaces are being changed to accomendate deficientcies in the breed , then  5-10 years from now , based on apparrent trends and staus quo of the racing and breeding industries  ,  we could easily be right back where we started before making the swith in surfaces  . wts - i would have liked to see an all poly triple crown in \'07 and all tracks changing over very soon ,,,

the starlet looks like a great race + has a couple horse\'s that could be monsters - mistical plan\'s pattern can go forward in her 2 yo finale and already is fastest and fast enough to overcome the pp , baroness thatcher looks like a nice improving o x type + garden spot , quick little miss is another + both later 2 have good poly #\'s  ...      

[Dana666]

Well, I was alive for a lot of money with Liquidity. He tried hard! What can I say? The winner earned it. That was a tough beat. I had huge pick 3\'s and pick 4\'s that all went down. One of these days I\'ll win one of those driving finishes.
I think it was a solid field.

[marcus]

guess i would have liked to see my #2 horse keep better contact w/ the mid/front of the field . i belive so cal is the \"A\" p-3 circut becouse it seems that many times , one can single a horse out in a given leg -  but i don\'t think the futurity was on of those type ( in so far as it was 2 yo\'s , to a large degree ) - tough race ...

the starlet today does look an interesting race , i\'m going to contemplate a tr key 1 x2 x2  w/  mistical plan over baroness thatcher & quick miss as i ride the ferry over to a baby shower in staten island - hope they got otb\'s over there .

[bobphilo]

Mistical Plan looks good in the Starlet to me as well. She has a ton of early foot to overcome poor post.

Bob