Urgent: Larry Jones and the Mischievous Elf

[TGJB]

Miff-- I just make the one point adjustment to the figures. On average, fillies at all levels are about 3 points slower than colts (and in fact the Oaks went exactly 3 points slower than the Derby), so if they really wanted to make things equal they would have to give them 15 pounds. That\'s why it\'s so tough for fillies to beat colts-- but not all situations are \"average\".

[miff]

TGJB,

Thanks, I would think that RTR is not average, so far.


Mike

[fkach]

\"On average, fillies at all levels are about 3 points slower than colts (and in fact the Oaks went exactly 3 points slower than the Derby\"

Have you found any evidence that fillies mature earlier physically than colts (like with humans)?

I\'ve compiled some evidence that suggests that the gap between the best 2YO fillies and best 2YO colts is narrower than when they are older horses. It seems to start widening as the colts start getting closer to maturity late in their 3YO careers.

[TGJB]

We haven\'t run this, since the averages aren\'t relevant when betting individual horses. Certainly is possible.

[Lost Cause]

It seems that every year from April to about July, the two year old fillies beat the boys in a lot of the stakes and maiden races so there should be something to this thory.  I\'ve been betting that angle for years now.  It usually produces good payoffs too...

[flushedstraight]

miff Wrote:
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> Incidentally, the things posted here re Gomez,
> Johnny V. are NOTHING compared to the moves that
> Jerry Bailey would make to try take away a mount
> from another jockey.


You mean like Bailey getting Saint Liam after the Whitney loss, Prado\'s 9th straight ride on him? Who was Bailey\'s agent, Ron something or other? I don\'t exactly remember the Warrens looking too regretful in the winners circle at the BC for their bad sportsmanship, and Prado didn\'t exactly suffer, going on to win top jock honors the next year. It\'s part of the game.

[miff]

I agree, part of the game. FYI,Trickey kinda pleaded for Prado to stay on but Mr Warren insisted. Trickey never had much time for Bailey.

Mike

[flushedstraight]

Mike,
Any scoop on English Channel? Tempting to toss but seeing the way Honey Ryder bounced back from Dubai I\'m cautious. 33% TAP\'s got me scratching my head again.

(BTW, still waiting for CQ to get back to his top)

[miff]

Flush,

TAP very hot in NY right now, especially on grass.Don\'t think the Dubai trip is as bad as it once was, seems trainers have kinda figured it out.

Re CQ,this is a real small horse who did not appear the same after the FG race and a few trained eyes feel he doesn\'t look real strong.

Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The Key Factor from the Louisiana Derby is not that Circular Way ran fast. It is that he ran fast to edge mediocre horses. An interesting angle in that regard is that Pletcher did bide his time in declaring Circular for the Preakness and he was a late entry. Obviously, if the horse is of \"traditional\" Pletcher Stakes Quality TAP misread Circular\'s readiness. In that regard, here we have Rags to Riches sitting upon the same Pletcher Training Acumen move. Pletchers Stakes read upon her was that she would be withheld but something changed his mind late as it did with Circular Way\'s Preakness. Interestingly Rags was also beating mediocre horses.

Contrary to what someone here posted, Pletchers Stakes results have not been stellar lately. Theres even some innuendo that he lost the services of his favorite race conditioner. (White Mercedes) If that is true your guess is as good as mine. Was W.M. suddenly a positive liability? With the pre race surprise screening must Pletcher mind his P\'s and Q\'s? He is after all the sole insurer of running a clean animal.

I\'m of the opinion Pletcher will not fair well on Belmont Day.

flushedstraight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mike,
> Any scoop on English Channel? Tempting to toss but
> seeing the way Honey Ryder bounced back from Dubai
> I\'m cautious. 33% TAP\'s got me scratching my head
> again.
>
> (BTW, still waiting for CQ to get back to his top)

[Flighted Iron]

It\'s not uncommon for a rider to lose the mount after a loss.It\'s understood by
all.Gomer and Co.\'s actions are quite different.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Miff, from a aesthetics perspective, I\'d just like to help and point out its unseemly to respond to ones own post.

If you remember to take your awareness pills, I promise to take my anti-integrity meds.

No, Garret Gomez does not give me that good feeling and that was before this latest stunt.


-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> I can tell you are off your meds again.You must
> know that Garret Gomez is one of the best riders
> of today, other issues aside.
>
> Incidentally, the things posted here re Gomez,
> Johnny V. are NOTHING compared to the moves that
> Jerry Bailey would make to try take away a mount
> from another jockey.
>
>
> Mike

[richiebee]

Chuckles mentioned that TAP\'s stakes results have not been stellar lately:

From TAP\'s TG trainer profile:

Last 90 days (340 starts) Win percentage 26%. TAP\'s TG Figure-Based break out
shows 108 starts with 36% of the runners in this sample posting a new top and
31% pairing.

Stakes races (1679 starts) Win percentage 23%. TG Figure- Based break out for
Stakes shows 1495 starts with only 13% of stakes runners posting a new top and
32% pairing.

Guess it would be interesting to see the figures for stakes races in the last
90 days. Always fascintaed looking at run based v figure based stats and seeing
trainers with high win %, but only average figure- based profile.

[RICH]

I must be missing something, I been handicapping 35 yrs and I can\'t remember 2yr fillies beating 2yr colts at all. Automatic throwout everytime. That goes for RTR on Saturday

[alm]

TAP\'s figures in NY suggest he is on his game; maybe not the best he\'s had in the past, but running full nevertheless.

If he\'s ahead of the testing in NYC, Assmussen will likely be as well.  This suggests that RTR and Curlin will run their eyeballs out in this race.

Personally Curlin strikes me as a runner with distance issues...not when you compare him to most of the others, but I don\'t think he will get 12 furlongs easily with or without TAP\'s magic.  I also think he is sitting on a breakdown of some sort, but not necessarily in this race.  I\'ll explain why when it happens; I don\'t expect to see him in a SS rematch.

Maybe there\'s another horse at Belmont who will go with these two, but the others don\'t come from scientifically superior barns and may end up struggling for minor placings.  If one chose to breed to any of this crop, I\'d have to lean towards SS and HS as being the best of the clean 3 year olds we\'ve seen so far.