Final Analysis

[Dana666]

It was a damn shame the weather was so bad for New Jersey racing\'s two biggest days ever. I couldn\'t take the wind on Friday and moved indoors, though Saturday finally cleared up, way too late though.

As a long time Monmouth patron, I have to say the track crew did an outstanding job keeping the track together. They deserve much praise.

On the racing end, I was very disappointed by La Traviata; she really didn\'t look like the same horse I saw at Saratoga, and I think her last workout was way too fast though that may not even be enough of an excuse. I thought she was so much better.

I thought Excellent Art, Midnight Lute, and Curlin ran the best races of the day. Sadly, I told a friend 3 weeks ago that all I wanted to do was bet 10K on Curlin and make no other wagers or even do any handicapping -- I believed then he was the best horse in the world and the surest play of any Breeder\'s Cup I can recall, and I let the slop scare me away -- I didn\'t have the 10K anymore by that time either, but I did spend my usual 20 hours of handicapping to no avail for (uuuuggggghhhhh) a brutal beating on my home track!

Do you ever remember so many small super & exacta payoffs?

Midnight Lute was truly amazing , what can you say, really? I\'m glad to see Baffert back on top.

The BC Turf was the weakest I can ever remember, and the grass course totally changed as it bogged down from Friday to Saturday (Friday closers were fine, but speed held Saturday). It was embarrassing to see Dylan Thomas perform that way, he struggled in a very bad way.

I can\'t for the life of me understand why George Washington was sent over here -- now Gorgeous George is no more -- what, did they have an insurance policy on him or something? They couldn\'t have thought he had a chance in hell - what a waste. The fans loved that horse over in Europe. To continue racing him this year rivals putting Ferdinand in a dog food can in my eyes (wasn\'t he the Derby winner who wound up slaughtered?)

What else can I say, but wait till next year. What are the chances of a sloppy cushion track at Santa Anita? Oh, for those of you trying to bail out tomorrow, Santa Anita has a GIANT inside speed bias -- you almost can\'t lose if you are on the rail, so go get back what you lost today!

[stillinger]

Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 Santa Anita has a GIANT inside speed
> bias -- you almost can\'t lose if you are on the
> rail, so go get back what you lost today!


This is exactly the kind of medicine I could use right now,
The lead inside at a place that will carry it. Sounds like 1966.
Appreciate this heads up. A day off is sounding good as well.
I of course think it\'s a shame that that kind of racing is a vertically
stacked product that is out of control. One a day, special one every day somewhere, national TV, would be wonderful. Like the daily lottery, but a stake of import. How fun would that be. \"They\" might figure that out someday.

[JimP]

I believe this must have been the lowest straight Win payoff in the history of the BC. Where were the usual BC longshots this year? Why did the awful track conditions lead to lower payoffs instead of even more longshots this year?

[NoCarolinaTony]

Not Midnight Lute as I told you he would or should win and not bounce like some had projected. The Biggest bet against turned out to be Dylan Thomas......Richiebee...I have a pretty good track record on these things....

NC Tony

[Lost Cause]

\"can\'t for the life of me understand why George Washington was sent over here -- now Gorgeous George is no more -- what, did they have an insurance policy on him or something? They couldn\'t have thought he had a chance in hell - what a waste. \"

Interesting point....The horse had no shot.  ESPN did a piece on him before the running of the cup that stated he was retired, had infertility problems in the breeding shed and brought back to the races.  After I saw that piece, I turned to some of the guys and jokingly said..they\'re trying to break this horse down to collect the insurance money..The horse had no shot..none, running on  a surface that he clearly did not like last year and at a distance that does not seem to fit...I am not a conspiracy theorist but that was as fishy as it can get...Yet he was 9-1... who was betting this horse??  Were there that many Europeans betting into our pools?

[miff]

Lost,

Very observant,GW was hammered at 9-1 with that group and had to have international wise guy money and a touch of hunch money.Also noticed for the first time on BC day that several horses got bombed rather late in the win betting which is tough to do with very large pools.


Mike

[Dana666]

I watch a racing TV show from the UK, and all the commentators flat out stated that they felt George had no shot. I wouldn\'t be surprised if lots of Americans bet him on his name alone -- who wouldn\'t like a horse called George Washington?

[miff]

Expect the usual differences between fig makers:    

 Juvenile Fill BC Beyer Previous Difference

 Indian Blessing 95 87 8

 Proud Spell 89 82 7

 Backseat Rhythm 88 79 9

 Tasha\' Miracle 81 76 5

 Smarty Deb 77 81 -4

 Clearly Foxy 77 83 -6

 Grace Anatomy 64 76 -12

 Zee Zee 56 77 -21

 A to the Croft 53 76 -23

 Izarra 50 81 -31

 Set Play 48 72 -24

 Irish Smoke X 58  

 Phantom Income X 89  

     

 Juvenile BC Beyer Previous Difference

 War Pass 113 103 10

 Pyro 105 100 5

 Kodiak Kowboy 84 92 -8

 Tale of Ekati 82 94 -12
 
     

 Z Humor 79 97 -18

 Old Man Buck 79 82 -3

 Overextended 75 76 -1

 Shore Do 67 81 -14

 Salute the Sarge 54 84 -30

 Wicked Style 41 88 -47

 Globalization X 97  

     

 F&M Turf BC Beyer Previous Difference

 Lahudood 105 101 4

 Honey Ryder 104 89 15

 Passage of Time 103  

 Nashoba\'s Key 101 102 -1

 All My Loving 100  

 Timarwa 95  

 Arravale 91 94 -3

 Precious Kitten 85 104 -19

 Argentina 81 98 -17

 Danzon 78 95 -17

 Simply Perfect X  
 
     

 BC SPRINT Beyer Previous Difference

 Midnight Lute 108 124 -16

 Idiot Proof 96 101 -5

 Talent Search 91 99 -8

 Benny the Bull 85 119 -34

 Kelly\'s Landing 81 85 -4

 Bordonaro 75 95 -20

 Commentator 75 98 -23

 Greg\'s Gold 65 99 -34

 Smokey Stover X 110  

 Forefathers X 106  

     

 Mile BC Beyer Previous Difference

 Kip DeVille 108 105 3

 Excellent Art 106  

 Cosmonaut 104 104 0

 Nobiz Like Shobiz 103 102 1

 Host 102 99 3

 Trippi\'s Storm 100 105 -5
 
     

 Remarkable News 93 101 -8

 Rebellion 92 97 -5

 Icy Atlantic 88 96 -8

 Jeremy 86  

 Purim 83 105 -22

 Silent Name 69 76 -7

 My Typhoon 61 83 -22

     

 Distaff BC Beyer Previous Difference

 Ginger Punch 104 100 4

 Hystericalady 104 96 8

 Octave 103 97 6

 Lady Joanne 96 95 1

 Unbridled Belle 93 104 -11

 Balance 80 93 -13

 Tough Tiz\'s Sis 77 96 -19

 Bear Now 70 101 -31

 Indian Vale 67 104 -37

 Lear\'s Princess 66 99 -33

 Teammate X  
 
     

 Prop Me Up X  

     

 Turf BC Beyer Previous Difference

 English Channel 111 106 5

 Shamdinan 98 90 8

 Red Rocks 97  

 Better Talk Now 96 99 -3

 Dylan Thomas 96  

 Grand Couturier 93 102 -9

 Fri Guy 91 97 -6

 Transduction Gold 47 98 -51

     

 Classic BC Beyer Previous Difference

 Curlin 119 114 5

 Hard Spun 112 109 3

 Awesome Gem 105 106 -1

 Street Sense 104 107 -3

 Tiago 91 106 -15

 Any Given Saturday 76 103 -27

 Lawyer Ron 76 114 -38
 
     

 Diamond Stripes 64 105 -41

 George Washington X

[magicnight]

What would he be insured for after failing the fertility test?

Granted, he\'d still be worth something decent as a graded winner running as - effectively - a gelding, but I\'ve gotta believe that there are easier ways to pull such scams off. JT Lundy and Alydar anyone?

Don\'t they have horse parks or freakin\' retirement homes over there? He should not have been thrown to the wolves like this. It\'s a disgrace.

Bob

[Dana666]

I certainly have no inside information regarding the insurance \"theory\", but I just think it was ridiculous to run him -- he had clearly lost his edge racing and the breeding thing didn\'t work out -- so why the hell do you bring him to the Breeder\'s Cup again? I just can\'t figure it out. Then again, they do eat horses in Europe, so maybe my sensibilites are just too \"American.\"

[stillinger]

magicnight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Don\'t they have horse parks or freakin\' retirement
> homes over there? He should not have been thrown
> to the wolves like this. It\'s a disgrace.
>
> Bob

On a very serious note, I stand ready to do anything cooperative
in order to contribute to a or as the French say, plusieurs(several), horse
\"retirement\" homes. I would love to combine that with homes/ranches
for autistic children, which is why I don\'t just send money, that and
I would need some more. That can happen any day.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Hard to say for certain with the slop, but I thought Curlin\'s effort was monumental. Be very interesting to see if Tgraph gives us a clue.

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Expect the usual differences between fig makers:  
>  
>
>  Juvenile Fill BC Beyer Previous Difference
>
>  Indian Blessing 95 87 8
>
>  Proud Spell 89 82 7
>
>  Backseat Rhythm 88 79 9
>
>  Tasha\' Miracle 81 76 5
>
>  Smarty Deb 77 81 -4
>
>  Clearly Foxy 77 83 -6
>
>  Grace Anatomy 64 76 -12
>
>  Zee Zee 56 77 -21
>
>  A to the Croft 53 76 -23
>
>  Izarra 50 81 -31
>
>  Set Play 48 72 -24
>
>  Irish Smoke X 58  
>
>  Phantom Income X 89  
>
>      
>
>  Juvenile BC Beyer Previous Difference
>
>  War Pass 113 103 10
>
>  Pyro 105 100 5
>
>  Kodiak Kowboy 84 92 -8
>
>  Tale of Ekati 82 94 -12
>  
>      
>
>  Z Humor 79 97 -18
>
>  Old Man Buck 79 82 -3
>
>  Overextended 75 76 -1
>
>  Shore Do 67 81 -14
>
>  Salute the Sarge 54 84 -30
>
>  Wicked Style 41 88 -47
>
>  Globalization X 97  
>
>      
>
>  F&M Turf BC Beyer Previous Difference
>
>  Lahudood 105 101 4
>
>  Honey Ryder 104 89 15
>
>  Passage of Time 103  
>
>  Nashoba\'s Key 101 102 -1
>
>  All My Loving 100  
>
>  Timarwa 95  
>
>  Arravale 91 94 -3
>
>  Precious Kitten 85 104 -19
>
>  Argentina 81 98 -17
>
>  Danzon 78 95 -17
>
>  Simply Perfect X  
>  
>      
>
>  BC SPRINT Beyer Previous Difference
>
>  Midnight Lute 108 124 -16
>
>  Idiot Proof 96 101 -5
>
>  Talent Search 91 99 -8
>
>  Benny the Bull 85 119 -34
>
>  Kelly\'s Landing 81 85 -4
>
>  Bordonaro 75 95 -20
>
>  Commentator 75 98 -23
>
>  Greg\'s Gold 65 99 -34
>
>  Smokey Stover X 110  
>
>  Forefathers X 106  
>
>      
>
>  Mile BC Beyer Previous Difference
>
>  Kip DeVille 108 105 3
>
>  Excellent Art 106  
>
>  Cosmonaut 104 104 0
>
>  Nobiz Like Shobiz 103 102 1
>
>  Host 102 99 3
>
>  Trippi\'s Storm 100 105 -5
>  
>      
>
>  Remarkable News 93 101 -8
>
>  Rebellion 92 97 -5
>
>  Icy Atlantic 88 96 -8
>
>  Jeremy 86  
>
>  Purim 83 105 -22
>
>  Silent Name 69 76 -7
>
>  My Typhoon 61 83 -22
>
>      
>
>  Distaff BC Beyer Previous Difference
>
>  Ginger Punch 104 100 4
>
>  Hystericalady 104 96 8
>
>  Octave 103 97 6
>
>  Lady Joanne 96 95 1
>
>  Unbridled Belle 93 104 -11
>
>  Balance 80 93 -13
>
>  Tough Tiz\'s Sis 77 96 -19
>
>  Bear Now 70 101 -31
>
>  Indian Vale 67 104 -37
>
>  Lear\'s Princess 66 99 -33
>
>  Teammate X  
>  
>      
>
>  Prop Me Up X  
>
>      
>
>  Turf BC Beyer Previous Difference
>
>  English Channel 111 106 5
>
>  Shamdinan 98 90 8
>
>  Red Rocks 97  
>
>  Better Talk Now 96 99 -3
>
>  Dylan Thomas 96  
>
>  Grand Couturier 93 102 -9
>
>  Fri Guy 91 97 -6
>
>  Transduction Gold 47 98 -51
>
>      
>
>  Classic BC Beyer Previous Difference
>
>  Curlin 119 114 5
>
>  Hard Spun 112 109 3
>
>  Awesome Gem 105 106 -1
>
>  Street Sense 104 107 -3
>
>  Tiago 91 106 -15
>
>  Any Given Saturday 76 103 -27
>
>  Lawyer Ron 76 114 -38
>  
>      
>
>  Diamond Stripes 64 105 -41
>
>  George Washington X

[fkach]

At first glance it looks like the MTH BC track was the kind of sloppy track that produced larger than average margins between horses. That\'s probably why at least some of the well beaten horses ran such terrible figures. I would guess that a lot of those horses are going to rebound when they are spotted in fields where they are competitive and race on a surface they like better.

[miff]

When wet, the Monmouth surface is rather notorious for changing speeds. Note that the second race winner,COCO BELLE,a 3yr old filly, stopped the teletimer at 1.09 flat, same raw time as the current fastest sprinter in the world, Midnight Lute, who ran hours later. Then add the fact that the juvie colts ran 10 lengths(raw) faster than the juvie fillies did 35 minutes before.

Hopkins/Beyer had a tough time w/Midnight Lute and could have made it faster.The conditions of the day and changing track speed will undoubtedly have the major fig makers disagreeing.

Mike

[NoCarolinaTony]

Ctc,

On this subject I can agree with you. I thought Curlin performance was one of the best I have seen in many a year.

NC Tony