Allday Music

[fkach]

CTC,

I\'ve never studied the stats because I don\'t buy horses, but I know a bit about economics and investing. I would be shocked beyond belief if there wasn\'t a strong correlation between the qualities the smartest horse buyers look for, the average price paid for horses, and the results on the track.

If there wasn\'t a correlation, they would be idiots to pay more for those qualities.

If you buy horses that already have a record, you will pay a price that reflects that incremental information.  

That doesn\'t mean that some buyers aren\'t dumb and that some aren\'t smart enough to find good values in either case. I am just talking in generalities.

So if a particular barn is loaded with high priced horses, it is very likely it has better than average stock unless the people that did the selecting had no skill at all.

However, even with the best horses, the win percentage will also be a function of how well those horses are spotted, how well the trainer keeps the horses sound, how quickly he recognizes problems and gets conservative when minor issues come up (among other things).

If you gave me 10 of the best horses in the country I could easily produce a poor win percentage by spotting them at the wrong distance, on a surface they didn\'t like, in races where their running style would put them at a disadvantage etc... I could also easily produce a high win percentage with mediocre horses by spotting them favorably. In the latter case, it might not make economic sense to run in the weak spots though. That would produce more wins, but I might earn less money than by taking a shot against better horses.

A trainer\'s short and long term win percentage tells you many things, but unless you look at the details, it may not tell what you think. Having the best stock and an ability to move your horses to various circuits does however give you way more options for spotting horses where they can win. Therefore it is  more likely to produce a high win percentage when done by a competent person.

If you wanted to make an educated guess at what is causing the fluctuations in TP\'s win %, you\'d have to go into with an unbiased mind and look at the details of each horse he is running now compared to the past and keep in mind that fluctuations around the mean are actually to be expected.

[miff]

Chuck,

You can slice and dice it anyway you wish, but the fact is that anyone who knows the roster of TAP\'s runners would tell you that an annual 15% strike rate, would be considered disastrous failure.Again,you know better than that. As for TAP\'s horsemanship(or any other trainer), how do you know? He may be worse than you think, or better.He did learn from Wayne Lukas, a prolific trainer by accomplishment.He certainly has the management skills and you might be surprised how studious he is about racing(not training) re figs, race shape strategy et al.

Price paid for unraced horses matters somewhat but it is not the be all end all.Generally speaking, there is lots of homework done but it does come down to good fortune/luck also.The animals are beautiful and act like a drug of enticement.Most owners lose money in this business and are told so in  many cases, beforehand. The most prolific buyer in recent history is Sheik Mohamed. Hows he done overall, with very knowledgeable people advising him and with money being no object.


You are way off base on TAP and I could say more but I won\'t.Your posting\'s re deaths of Left Bank, Lawyer Ron spa figs are childish, you drank the Kool Aide. It\'s been a vets game for almost ten years, where you been?There is so much legal stuff being used on horses in a highly effective manner that it\'s no surprise what we see, even without the illegal magic bullet.

If and when the NY crowd gets caught(doubtful) TAP\'s name wont be on the list. I have yet to see TAP match the winning percentage results of several guys who have far inferior stock in quantity and quality.

Mike