milkshake

[TGJB]

Ergo the science of statistics. If one horse runs bad and has low CO2 it means nothing. If many run well with high CO2 and many run poorly with low CO2 for the same trainer it becomes statistically impossible for it to be coincidence.

[miff]

Never felt TG incorporated \"trainers\" into any facit of making figures but there may be areas other than trainers where certain beliefs/ notions may creep in.That would be normal after any endeavor of 25+ years but such could prejudice a fig now and then.

Re shakes, there are many informed posts being shown here and if you read all available about shakes(besides DR ARTHUR)one may not conclude that shakes move up every horse in every instance.There are other strong informed vet opinions that do not totally agree with Dr. Arthur.


What if the data you have shows Shug and Pat Kelly to have higher levels than Trickey and Levine. Then what??

Mike

[ajkreider]

Even then, I\'m not sure that shows much.  You\'d need some norming evidence.  For instance, it may be that horses with genetic dispositions to run longer (or faster) will have naturally higher CO2 levels.  It may be the case that better prepared horses have higher CO2 levels -from the training.  Of course, better prepared horses or genetically gifted horses are more likely to win - and no trainer, no matter how consistent, brings all his/her horses to the post with the same level of preparedness.  (But then, we\'d expect better trainers to have horses with higher CO2 levels-even without shaking-because they are better at preparing horses and they tend to work with owners who can afford genetically gifted horses.)

I think you\'d need stats on what training without shaking does to CO2 levels, and take a baseline reading of jeuvenile horses\' CO2 levels and track them as they mature.




(But, I\'m no stats guy, so the above may well be a bunch of hooey)

[TGJB]

Miff-- then I\'ll publish that data. My ultimate aim here is to get tracks to publish the test results for all horses daily.

[colt]

This is the same lame-duck defense that wonder boy Landis tried to make his case with...

What I would like to see is the CO2 levels for horses in Dubai and Europe so that we can get a better sense of what is the \"natural\" level...and go from there....  

ajkreider....
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For instance, it may be that horses with genetic dispositions to run longer (or faster) will have naturally higher CO2 levels. It may be the case that better prepared horses have higher CO2 levels -from the training. Of course, better prepared horses or genetically gifted horses are more likely to win - and no trainer, no matter how consistent, brings all his/her horses to the post with the same level of preparedness. (But then, we\'d expect better trainers to have horses with higher CO2 levels-even without shaking-because they are better at preparing horses and they tend to work with owners who can afford genetically gifted horses.)

[ajkreider]

Absolutely that info would go a long way to determining what\'s going on.

The Landis case is different, of course, in that we\'re talking about one rider.  The issue here is what to say about a trainer generally.  Single cases will never be conclusive, as TGJB points out.

[miff]

Still can\'t understand why any track would:

A.Turn a blind eye to trainers winning lots of races with illegal high levels.

B. Be anything but forthcoming about levels.

They is no reason/benefit to any track to hide/protect this info especially in the current environment.

Mike

[sighthound]

miff Wrote:
> What if the data you have shows Shug and Pat Kelly
> to have higher levels than Trickey and Levine.
> Then what??

Bet their horses going long.

[sighthound]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sight-- There are a lot of things I could respond
> to here, but I have to ask-- have you ever
> administered or prescribed alkalyzing agents to
> horses in any form, whether it is \"benignly\" in a
> feed additive, or any other way?

That question is so broad, so general, and so non-exclusive there\'s no way for anyone that feeds horses to answer \"no\".

Not to do so \"benignly\" is extremely difficult.   Many of the hundreds of performance supplements, vitamin-mineral supplements, and supplemented horse feeds contain lower or higher levels of bicarbonate. As do many OTC \"ulcer preventers\", \"holistic and natural\" supplements.

And even certain types of hay are higher in bicarbonate.

Have I ever purposely manipulated TCO2 levels in a healthy horse to attempt to alter it\'s performance?  No.

[jstrcehors]

Every horse is post race tested for milkshakes in California. Anyone who milkshakes is just pure stupid. O\'Neil horses will now have to go to a holding  barn the night before they run. Each horse will have his own security guard at the cost of ( i think ) $300 per horse. With the amount of horses that O\'Neill runs. Well, you figure it out. Not very cost affective. As for Rick Arthur. There is no DVM more honest. I was a vet assistant on the So Cal circuit for 5 years. And know Rick well. It seems to me that there is way to much time spent on cheating on this board. I can tell you that there is nothing that can make a horse perform above his talent. Only make them perform up to that talent.

[TGJB]

Take a look at the study Rick did of CO2 levels. It shows that increases in CO2 BELOW THE SANCTION LEVEL (37) affect performance. There is a large gap (something like 30 to 37) between what a horse can produce on its own and the sanction level where trainers can--and do-- use alkalyzing agents without getting sanctioned. Ask Rick.

[jstrcehors]

Look, all Im saying is that nothing can make a horse perform above their ability. Nothing,I know this. I spent 5 years riding along with one of the best vets on the west coast, seven days a week. Milkshakes have been around since the 70\'s.This is not something new.  I don\'t doubt that co2 levels can help a horse reach their ability.I know lasix allows a horse to breathe. Although it may help more by calming them down.Is that cheating?  I can only speak for California. Cheating as you guys call it is very tough.

[golfer]

\"Look, all Im saying is that nothing can make a horse perform above their ability. Nothing,I know this. I spent 5 years riding along with one of the best vets on the west coast, seven days a week. Milkshakes have been around since the 70\'s.This is not something new. I don\'t doubt that co2 levels can help a horse reach their ability.I know lasix allows a horse to breathe. Although it may help more by calming them down.Is that cheating? I can only speak for California. Cheating as you guys call it is very tough.\"

This is absolutely ridiculous. You don\'t get the point that JB is trying to make, and while I don\'t want to speak for him, I can care less about the ABILITY of a horse. With respect to what you are saying, that is true, you can\'t outrun ones ability, BUT if 5 horses are running in a race with the same ability, but two are milkshaked, those two are going to run CLOSER to their full ability more often then the three others that are not milkshaked.

Horses don\'t run to their full ability all the time, they are not machines.

And if I am not mistaken, JB knows the natural level with variance within a thoroughbred thus the reasoning he would like those levels published.

So in your expert opinion, if you have 5 horses, all the same ability, are you saying that if four run without being shaked and one gets shaked, that the will all run to their full ability?

[SoCalMan2]

Anybody see this article in the NY Times?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/12/health/research/12musc.html?em&ex=1202965200&en=3416ce5cea673d75&ei=5087%0A

Is it relevant to the milkshaking discussion?  Are Rycals the next sodapacking agent?