Pattern Planning

[miff]

Taking a horse \"out of his game\" has proved disasterous on too many occasions. I don\'t expect WP to try to sit in or anything like that. He has the speed/athleticism and would be foolish not to use it every time.

Trying to experiment now is way too risky.If he gets hooked in the Derby or before and spits the bit, so be it.I am anxious to see him run the last eighth after an honest pace since last year he was not finishing well against the clock. He will not get away with that as they stretch out.

Mike

[fkach]

They don\'t have to take him to 5th etc... just to prove a point or to find out if he can win that way. Putting him in some higher quality races this year would have taken care of giving him some extra experience under pressure. I\'m a big believer in \"tough to measure\" intangibles seperating horses that otherwise look very similar on speed. If he\'s the next Seattle Slew it won\'t matter. If he\'s a top miler that can\'t get 10F, it won\'t matter. If he\'s in between IMO that last 70 yards is going to be tough if a seasoned hyper competitive rival is coming at him. Maybe the Wood will come up tough.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Regarding the number of preps respectively for Street Sense and War Pass, without supporting a proposition that War Pass is the likely Derby winner, I\'d point out that Street Sense was caught in the Preakness and skipped the Belmont. Personally, I believe Street Sense was a little short to hang with the big boys for the cycle.



BitPlayer Wrote:
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> Miff –
>
> It\'s actually kind of interesting that Nafzger and
> Zito have taken different approaches to similar
> problems.  They both had a horse run fast enough
> in the BC to win the Derby, so they had no issues
> about needing to get graded earnings or step it up
> a notch.  Nafzger opted for only 2 preps, while
> Nick is going for 3.  Nafzger took on Any Given
> Saturday in his first prep, while Zito took on a
> weak allowance field followed by Big Truck and
> Atoned.  Nafzger went through the Blue Grass on a
> synthetic surface, even though he knew it might
> mean getting his horse beat.  Zito is going to the
> Wood.  I think Nick is partly driven by wanting to
> keep his colt unbeaten, whereas Nafzger didn\'t
> have that pressure.  To some extent, Zito is going
> back to his old ways in bringing War Pass along
> slowly.  And, of course, Zito is primarily a NY
> trainer, while Nafzger is more comfortable in
> Kentucky.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I think War Pass will see some speed come Wood time. But its not like Pyro has seen any significant competition either.

fkach Wrote:
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> >>>My main focus with him leading up to the Derby
> is to try to get his fitness level where we need
> it on the big day,\" Zito said. \"Some might feel
> these first two races were unconventional
> prepwise, but we already know what he is. He
> doesn\'t have to show he belongs. He\'s already the
> champion.\"
>
>
> ....wonder if the great Nafzager would do it much
> differently or any other trainer that had this
> horse all along.>>>>
>
> It\'s funny because I think he might be making a
> mistake with this horse.
>
> Ideally, what he\'s doing makes a lot of sense. But
> most horses with 5-6 races heading into the the
> Derby don\'t have PPs like War Pass.
>
> WP has never done anything other than go wire to
> wire on a loose lead. He\'s never been behind
> horses, inside or between horses, banged around
> hard in traffic, dueled with another quality
> speed, forced very wide on the first turn going
> for the lead from an outside post etc...
>
> So what Zito is betting is that giving him all
> these super easy prep races against extremely weak
> competition is better than having him ready for
> that moment in the Derby when he\'s likely to be
> asked to do several things for the very first
> time.
>
> If I owned the horse, I would be hoping for a
> tougher trip in the Wood to get this horse ready
> for what\'s he\'s likely to experience Derby day.
> Ideally, a tougher race just prior to the Derby is
> not so hot either, but that\'s what you face when
> you put the 2YO Champion of the Year in with a
> bunch of ALW horses in his preps. You get him fit
> without taxing him, but he experiences nothing.

[Badride]

The reason hes never done anything but go wire to wire is because hes faster than all the horses he runs with.   Are you suggesting they take away the most devastating weapon any Thoroughbred can have, speed.  I just dont get \"they need a tough trip, or put him in a tough race.  War Pass is a fast horse, and the only way hes going to get beat in the  Derby is if he cannot carry that speed 1 1/4.   There is a very good chance he cannot carry that speed a mile 1/4, but his ONLY chance to win is going to be on the lead.    No need to second guess Zito, he wins on the lead or gets a hamsadwich.   Makes no difference who he runs with prior to the Derby, hes already asserted himself as the horse to beat.   All these other horses have to catch him, literally.

[fkach]

I agree with you about his speed.

My experience suggests that horses that have faced serious challenges and a little adversity do much better when they finally get a really big test than those that have had nothing but easy trips on their way there.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Obviously there are quicker horses out there. But someone on this board made the excellent point that the Graded Earnings requirement can remove such a horse from Derby Rabbit consideration. Without having reviewed the Tampa Bay Derby for pace I\'m reasonably certain that one of the trainers that goes to the Wood will rabbitize War Pass for heart and then we\'ll see what we have. If War Pass\'s heart is breakable, I\'d think it prudent to attempt to break it before the Derby.

wooo...oooo....whoa..oh



Badride Wrote:
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> The reason hes never done anything but go wire to
> wire is because hes faster than all the horses he
> runs with.   Are you suggesting they take away the
> most devastating weapon any Thoroughbred can have,
> speed.  I just dont get \"they need a tough trip,
> or put him in a tough race.  War Pass is a fast
> horse, and the only way hes going to get beat in
> the  Derby is if he cannot carry that speed 1 1/4.
>   There is a very good chance he cannot carry that
> speed a mile 1/4, but his ONLY chance to win is
> going to be on the lead.    No need to second
> guess Zito, he wins on the lead or gets a
> hamsadwich.   Makes no difference who he runs with
> prior to the Derby, hes already asserted himself
> as the horse to beat.   All these other horses
> have to catch him, literally.