Sore feet? Bah humbug!

[drbillym]

There is a lot of attention being given to BB(BJB\'s) feet, starting with the television coverage of his $550/pair custom designed shoes, to Randy Morse\'s comment on the rock hard surface at CD.  I am reminded, and some of you fellow old time New Yorkers may remember this, when the Hambletonian was being run at Yonkers(probably around 1967), and the supposed favorite, Lindsay\'s Pride, was battling a foot problem.  The back page headline of the Daily News read, \"Sore Feet!\"  Well, rather than going off 8-5, he went 4-1 and jogged home an easy winner.
My point is, if you like BB, and have faith in Dutrow, send it in regardless of the reports, and enjoy the better odds the story will give you.

[sekrah]

There\'s a good chance BB aggravated something to his feet yesterday.  I hate his chances at the price he\'ll be on Derby day.

[Ian Meyers]

How about the 20-1 you could have gotten at some spots in Vegas before yesterday\'s race.  I didn\'t, but have friends that did.  At that price you can bet the rest of the field on Derby Day and make money.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

sekrah Wrote:
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> There\'s a good chance BB aggravated something to
> his feet yesterday.  I hate his chances at the
> price he\'ll be on Derby day.

Every time a horse runs theres a chance it will injure itself in some way. Their legs are asked to endure trememdous forces for as delicate as they are conformed. But to say there is a \"good chance\" BJB incurred an injury is pure speculation at this point. And that is true even if facts come later which confirm the Florida Derby was hard on him. That kind of speculation won\'t result in many cashes at the windows.

You can win the Derby Big with a favorite at the top of the ticket. The trick is to pick the winner and know enough to get the real contenders in underneath him.

This Derby just got very interesting in my estimation and I for one am really looking forward to the Wood Memorial.

[hossgnat]

What kind of price do you think Brown will fetch on Derby day?  Certainly something akin to FuPeg\'s 2-1 or so but could be lower.  Heaviest Derby fav in a long time maybe.

It\'s amusing/interesting that the worldwide hub for UPS is Louisville. lol

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

BJB\'s Derby price will clearly be dependent upon a number of variables. I\'d rank them as follows:

1. War Pass\'s Status
2. Any additional reports pertaining to his feet
3. The Florida Derby number assigned by TGraph
4. His workouts between now and Derby Day,especially as they pertain to Churchill
5. The nature of the Derby day track

Depending, I could see him going off anywhere from 2-1 to 6-1 or not making the gate at all

hossgnat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What kind of price do you think Brown will fetch
> on Derby day?  Certainly something akin to FuPeg\'s
> 2-1 or so but could be lower.  Heaviest Derby fav
> in a long time maybe.
>
> It\'s amusing/interesting that the worldwide hub
> for UPS is Louisville. lol

[marcus]

i\'d guess in the 5-1 range as kd co- favorite . i got the show horse right in the fla derby and used h b on top . had i been able to guess in advance that big brown would basically do a sarava belmont stakes impersonation , maybe it would have made sense to me - imo .

on an unrelated note , 3 fillies - eight belles , game face , kadira look interesting to me and perhaps as a possible 4th , nicksappealinglady if can make the dance ...

[sekrah]

#3, #4, #5 of your list will have little to no influence at all on his Derby odds.  

 There\'s nowhere near enough money among T-Graph users to influence the odds in a big public race like the Kentucky Derby.  For one, some T-Graph users will convince themselves to take Big Brown no matter what his line looks like, and others will look at the same line and hate it.  That money is a drop in the bucket next to the kind of coin the rich execs and hollywood types will be throwing at this race.  These people look at their DRF Beyer numbers and listen to Randy Moss and Hank Goldberg to get their picks.  The whale T-Graph professionals more than often pass on the Derby (or just make a token bet) or atleast have enough sense not to play a 5/2 horse in a 20-horse field.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

At this juncture, I make BRB the Derby Favorite. That doesn\'t necessarily mean I\'ll bet him. But with the right conditions, he has the background to win at Churchill in my estimation.

If you don\'t think TFigs, Rags and Beyers drive the odds in the Big Races you\'re deluding yourself.

They are so instrumental in what the odds will be that one of the ways to cash for a big score is to buck the \"Figure Odds Setters\" for whatever particular reason you wish. You can have a researched theory to buck them or you can just go with \"Chaos Theory\" to buck them, regardless, if you knock a top figure horse out of the race you\'re already half the way home to Ka-Ching.

That said, Kentucky Derby Day is an unescorted baby with a juicy tootsie roll pop time. The baby hasn\'t even slobbered the tootsie roll pop and its your favorite flavor, \"Cherry Red\". There\'s more novice and uneducated money riding on Derby Day than on any other race day of the year. There\'s women in expensive and flamboyant hats betting on cute names like \"Frosty the Snowman\", there\'s first timers betting on Colors and Jockeys. There\'s thousands of folks merely betting their favorite lotto number combinations. Its the proverbial gold mine. Thousands and Thousands of them don\'t have a clue what a negative 1 is. They don\'t have the faintest idea about late energy, early speed, traffic, trouble, or track bias. And horror of horrors, some of those folks will beat you if you don\'t select the right horse.  

The moral of the story is you don\'t want to be locked into a 20-1 horse merely because he\'s 20-1. Be your horse long or short odds, Derby day is the day to use all you know and take the horse you think will win regardless of odds. Pick the winner even at 2-1 and cinch the deal with the exotics ....

Kick it....

You Gotta Fight...for your Right....to Parrrrrrrrty.

sekrah Wrote:
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> #3, #4, #5 of your list will have little to no
> influence at all on his Derby odds.  
>
>  There\'s nowhere near enough money among T-Graph
> users to influence the odds in a big public race
> like the Kentucky Derby.  For one, some T-Graph
> users will convince themselves to take Big Brown
> no matter what his line looks like, and others
> will look at the same line and hate it.  That
> money is a drop in the bucket next to the kind of
> coin the rich execs and hollywood types will be
> throwing at this race.  These people look at their
> DRF Beyer numbers and listen to Randy Moss and
> Hank Goldberg to get their picks.  The whale
> T-Graph professionals more than often pass on the
> Derby (or just make a token bet) or atleast have
> enough sense not to play a 5/2 horse in a 20-horse
> field.

[miff]

\"....listen to Hank Goldberg\"


Sek,

The guy is a clueless on air drunk,why would anyone listen to him.The data most widely distributed, times 50 or more, is DRF, so Beyer figs are seen the most.TG/RAGS bettors tend to bet much of the \"sophisticated money\" for lack of a better term.

Mike

[sekrah]

You know that, and I know that..

or many people this will be the only race all year that they bet.  They don\'t know a damn thing about any of these horses and they\'ll soak up whatever perceived \"expert\" is spouting on television.

DRF/Beyer numbers will have more influence on the odds than any T-Graph or Rags numbers.

The professional gamblers who use TG or Rags will often pass on the Derby because they know its a lousy betting opportunity 90% of the time.

In the Kentucky Derby the win pools and odds are being driven by wealthy amateurs (business execs, hollywood stars, pro athletes) who don\'t have the foggiest clue about race patterns.