The Pletcher Empire-R.I.P.

[Silver Charm]

He does not have a single quality older horse or a Derby and Oaks contender. People do not pay him the kind of money they pay him every day or send him the quality stock he gets to win at 26% over the inner oval at Ozone Park.

He is a good guy. A hard worker. Has proven he can manage a massive operation.

Now he needs to prove he is a quality horseman.

Which is usually suposed to come first......

[ajkreider]

Well Dutrow has said he came out fine.  And you\'d think a) he\'s in a position to know, b) he\'s seen at least as many replays of the stretch as anyone, c) Kent D. might have said something, either to him or immediately after the race, if he thought something was wrong, and d) the horse didn\'t seem to slow appreciably in the stretch (though Smooth Air did seem to gain a bit).

Of course, it may well be that BB has an injury that is known - which makes Dutrow deceitful (though I can\'t think why).  Or he doesn\'t know about it, and he\'s just an idiot, being the trainer and all.

[alm]

I\'ve been doing this a long time; have had several trainers of my own; can tell you they pretty much say the same thing every time.  That is the horse always \'came out fine.\'  They have no intention ever of telling the truth, because they may have to live with it.

Charlie Wittingham used to say he treated owners like mushrooms: keep them in the dark and shovel shit on them.  Dutrow is likely to be doing just that with his owners and you, the fan.

When a horse bears in or out, there is something wrong.  There is always something wrong when that happens.  Sometimes the problem is very hard to find.  Not found by the handler, it is almost always denied.

Bet that horse at your own risk.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I don\'t have horses, but if I did I would not send one to Plech. I think that says it most succinctly.

I don\'t think anyone here wants someone to lose their livelihood, but I know the folks here want clean racing. The game is hard enough without having to factor the cheaters. And the cheaters don\'t just steal from bettors like you and I. They steal from their colleagues and they steal from the games foundation by pumping up sub-standard horses and sending them off to stud upon drugs rather than heart and lungs. If they can play clean no problem. If they can\'t the Feds will get involved and they aren\'t gonna worry about who is a \"star\". They are gonna regulate and close jurisdictions that can\'t run a clean game. Consequently, those jurisdictions need to police the connections so the jurisdictions themselves don\'t get shut down.

To my knowledge BRB\'s last work was March 25th and he hasn\'t worked since nor been seen. There\'s plenty of time to determine if he wiggled or ouched. He\'ll get a couple works in at Churchill and his appearance will be evaluated. Regardless of what happens in the Derby, I hope this one makes the race. If he does, I don\'t think he\'ll have to go eyeball to eyeball from the opening bell.

 

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> He does not have a single quality older horse or a
> Derby and Oaks contender. People do not pay him
> the kind of money they pay him every day or send
> him the quality stock he gets to win at 26% over
> the inner oval at Ozone Park.
>
> He is a good guy. A hard worker. Has proven he can
> manage a massive operation.
>
> Now he needs to prove he is a quality horseman.
>
> Which is usually suposed to come first......

[Michael D.]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> First of all, I have found that inner track \"slop\"
> isn\'t a whole lot different than inner track fast.
> And I don\'t think he was losing ground to anyone
> but Visionaire in the stretch, by memory.
>
> But if you think that he just liked slop, wouldn\'t
> that effort be less taxing, and the most likely
> result be just going back to his previous level?
>
> He bounced, all right.  Maybe a lot of horses will
> start doing that again (after a brief hiatus of 5
> years or so).


so you loved the Pletcher to pair up a big new top on Saturday, but on Sunday you suspect that all Pletcher\'s are in danger because they are off juice?

[pres711]

after the weekend racing I agree that its pyro or john, but would addsmooth air and maybe t of e tomy final cut.

[Uncle Buck]

IMO Pyro and Colonel John look and act healthiest at this point - Pyro with the superior speed figures. I\'m not expecting much from him this Saturday other than a ho-hum trip around that bizzare Keen oval.

When BBJ, BB, WP and RCTG are backing up down the stretch at Churchill, I say it\'s a toss up between Pyro, the Colonel, Court Vision, Big Truck and Tale of Ek who finishes up best on Derby Day.

I can\'t wait to see Colonel work over the Churchill Surface. If he relishes it like his daddy, he might be THE ONE. Of all the stalkers/closers he has the most room to go forward numbers wise. The poly PP\'s are tricky though but we know he\'s sound and honest. Besides, how can you not like a Colonel in the Kentucky Fried Derby presented by Yum!?

[Silver Charm]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t have horses, but if I did I would not send
> one to Plech. I think that says it most
> succinctly.
>
> I don\'t think anyone here wants someone to lose
> their livelihood, but I know the folks here want
> clean racing. The game is hard enough without
> having to factor the cheaters. And the cheaters
> don\'t just steal from bettors like you and I. They
> steal from their colleagues and they steal from
> the games foundation by pumping up sub-standard
> horses and sending them off to stud upon drugs
> rather than heart and lungs. If they can play
> clean no problem. If they can\'t the Feds will get
> involved and they aren\'t gonna worry about who is
> a \"star\". They are gonna regulate and close
> jurisdictions that can\'t run a clean game.
> Consequently, those jurisdictions need to police
> the connections so the jurisdictions themselves
> don\'t get shut down.


CtC this may be the most civil or charitable post ever for you. However whose livelihood are we talking about saving the cheaters if they become clean or the ones the cheaters already put out of business.

All one needs to do is go back to the accounting scandals at WorldCom. CEO Bernie Ebbars was considered to be a maverick who kept hitting numbers targets and doing consolidation acquisitions based on those projections that had the competitors screaming foul. Pressure from their own Shareholders and Boards were causing people to take unnecessary risks or lose their own jobs.

SUDDENLY EVERYONE WANTED TO DO BUSINESS WITH WORLDCOM.

And then Ebbars turned out to be an accounting fraud and is in jail and the business is bankrupt. However what happened to those who were judged against them along the way. The ones who were put out of business by playing by the rules?

Will Pletchers operation go bankrupt and he and his staff land in jail.

Probably not. More like an AT&T breakup is in order.

[big18741]

Uncle Buck

The Colonel\'s stretch antics from Saturday make Scrappy T\'s Preakness bolt look mild.Scrappy T did it coming off the turn which made it look worse.

Take a look at the head on view-it isn\'t pretty.Appears to be whip related but still troubling.He was doing it in the Sham but not this extreme.

You can\'t tell anything from the regular view-have to get the head on.

[NoCarolinaTony]

TGJB,

Would have thought they would have policed pretty heavily in Dubai and Tricky had quite a nice day in both continents.

Tony

[miff]

jb wrote:

\"War Pass-- I\'m not a pace guy, but has anyone ever run faster than 46 going two turns at Aqu, let alone held together to get a decent figure (my guess is around a 2)? I think this horse is being buried prematurely, and fkach, I\'m surprised, I would think you would love him. With the $ cutoff, they don\'t get to enter rabbits in the Derby\"


.... considering the speed of the track Wood day( kinda dull) WP ran very well and better than the winner, not talking figs.In all of WP\'s races, except his first out this year at GP, he has not gotten that last part with any authority even considering he blazes the way. At CD, the stretch is forever and that last eighth is where I see him having difficulty.

Split guys have WP and BB as having \"rapid deceleration\" and are tossing both.I\'m more inclined to think that if they get away with an honest pace they\'ll finish well esp, BB.


Mike

[fkach]

I don\'t know, but I think you guys are writing Pletcher\'s obituary a bit prematurely. Right now his barn doesn\'t look as loaded as it often does at this time of year, but at least some of that was predictable because his 2YOs were a bit weaker than usual last year. I would not be shocked if he has a barn full of 2YO tigers this year, does an admirable job of spotting the second string types he has now in races where they can win, and finishes the year with a solid win rate. If he has another weak group of 2YOs, then I think we might start seeing the same kind of decline we\'ve seen elsewhere. A bad weekend or two is not going to kill this guy. No matter what he\'s doing as part of his success, one aspect of it is 100% certain in my mind. He spots his horses really well. If he\'s not loaded with Grade 1 horses, he\'s going to win a lot of Grade 2/3 races and steal a few big races too (like Jerry has done in recent years) because he knows what he\'s doing.

[fkach]

Miff,

>>Split guys have WP and BB as having \"rapid deceleration\" and are tossing both.I\'m more inclined to think that if they get away with an honest pace they\'ll finish well esp, BB. <<

I don\'t want to take the conversation too off topic because we are on the TG board, but to me this is one of the more difficult aspects of pace.

It does appear that some speed horses will run fast early and decelerate progressively worse as you stretch the distances out regardless of pace while others have the ability to slow down early and then come home a lot faster if conditions allow it.

When I see a horse with a deceleration type pattern in its fractional times, it\'s sometimes difficult to tell whether it was the conditions (other speed horses in its races) that caused it and the horse could stretch out, slow down early, and finish much better if it had a better set of conditions or whether the horse is toast if he stretches out. There\'s an interrelationship between fractions/pace and stamina that impacts closing times that is not clear from fractions alone.

My best guess is that War Pass doesn\'t really want 10F, but BB can get it if he\'s not used up chasing War Pass.

[miff]

fkach wrote:

\"It does appear that some speed horses will run fast early and decelerate progressively worse as you stretch the distances out regardless of pace while others have the ability to slow down early and then come home a lot faster if conditions allow it\"


... so much sophisticated data around today.The difference between a very fast horse and a very talented one is their ability to make or attend a fast pace and still finish with some authority.Like TG,Rags,Pace figs, there are guys also measuring just this aspect.


Mike

[ajkreider]

Even if BB slows down alot, it might well be enough to win the Derby.  You add 14 seconds to the Florida Derby and you get a time good enough to win alot of recent Kentucky Derbys (and it wouldn\'t have taken BB :14 to do another 1/8th).

And, as blazing fast as Gulfstream can be on Florida Derby day, CD on Kentucky Derby Day can be even worse (Monarchos, anyone?).