Big Brown is BOSS

[Eight Belles]

Frank Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think he means that those of us that do believe
> in numbers and patterns appreciate the
> contributions to the mutuel pools from those that
> do not believe in the numbers but would rather
> believe their eyes.

Rather ironic that in a discussion about believing your eyes, I have to admit that I thought he asked if I need a bookmarker.  Bookmarker?  ;-)

That said, I\'d take up TGJB if he\'s offering.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Eight Belles,

I knew I ascertained some insight in you. Provided BRB comes in under the conditions that you outlined,I think there are others who would make the probability of a win at least in your mentioned range.

Jerry, I won\'t comment upon Bellamy Road\'s Wood figure and will rest my case upon his Derby and Travers.

However, I\'m sensing that we have a 2008 figure controversy, though this time in the Florida Derby. I\'m sensing a TFig in the negative 2 to 3 range and if that is true, will likely conduct myself in my Derby wagers as if it was less than others may have factored. I do however believe it was a good and legitimate effort on a fair track.

Regarding the \"bad step\" all I can say is I really liked the way he came home once the wiggling was over.

Hopefully this one gets in, because if he does it will pit those that believe he will bounce vs. those that may think he\'s a winner. If he doesn\'t make the race, the presumption has to go to those that figured he would bounce. That said, there are laurels to be won here and I\'m sure there are reasons why many would want to wear them. My reasons are simple, I want to win four straight Derbies and have three successive Runs for the Roses I must win to accomplish that objective.

http://www.jssgallery.org/Paintings/Man_Wearing_Laurels.htm

Eight Belles Wrote:
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> I\'m going to take a beating to say this at this
> forum, but I\'ll take my chances.  
>
> Two things about numbers: 1) The very top horses
> don\'t run normal numbers or patterns, and 2) Your
> eyes are better than any number if you know what
> you\'re looking at.
>
> So if you believe Big Brown is an exceptional
> horse, you shouldn\'t worry about what number he
> ran last time.  Exceptional horses aren\'t normal
> horses.
>
> And my eyes told me that Big Brown had an easy
> time of the Florida Derby, regardless of what a
> number indicates he should\'ve spent physically.
>
> Believing that Big Brown is head and shoulders
> above the rest of the contenders, and believing
> the Florida Derby didn\'t take too big of a toll on
> him to recoup in 5 weeks, the only things I\'m
> concerned about regarding him is how he looks when
> he gets to Churchill.  If there\'s no whisperings
> about his feet and he\'s getting raves for his work
> from Haskin and others, then I\'d give him a 50-60%
> chance of winning (the most I think you can give
> any horse in that calvary charge).

[Frank]

That was very funny. Good luck with your plays.

[Flighted Iron]

Keep in mind where he was setting those fast early fractions and going on.

[Flighted Iron]

Chuckles,

  Please tell me.BRB stands for big richie B or Big Rubber Ball?

[Flighted Iron]

What number will it take to win?

Re: T\'Graphers - a little help (116 Views)
Posted by: Flighted Iron (IP Logged)
Date: March 12, 2008 08:55AM


Seems a zero or slightly better might not be a bad number to run in the Derby.
Hypothetically I would prefer next race to be a 2.5 and the race prior to the
Derby a 1.25

[jimbo66]

Interesting.

the host is on record early about taking a stand against Big Brown.  Well jerry, if you really said somewhere on this board that you think it is only 50/50 that Big Brown races in the Derby, that is certainly a bet I would take and would offer you 2-1 on your 50/50 chance.  

As several others have posted, the horse hasn\'t reacted yet.  He gets 5 weeks rest going into the derby, which has to help off the big race in the Fla Derby.  

And to me, a big factor not really discussed on this board much is the lack of quality 3 year olds right now.  On the figures, this looks like a comparatively slow crop, especially if you believe \"racehorses are getting faster\".  Ok, War Pass is the exception, but there are probably not too many people that are going to expect him to run back to his slop aided negative 3 in the BC Juvenile.  His secondary top makes him a contender, but one with somewhat spotty current form.  Pyro has one strong figure too, the same sloppy track BC juvenile race that War Pass got his in.  You can believe the story about Asmussen creating a postive pattern on the horse and holding back for the Derby, but I wouldn\'t bet the mortgage money on that.  His 2\'s and 3\'s make him a marginal contender and a big underlay on derby day, if you ask me.  And I am not sure how he runs this Saturday affects his odds at all on Derby day, which is part of the sickening effect of polycrap.  If Pyro runs big, those that didn\'t like him before the race will discount it because of the polycrap, if he runs mediocre, it won\'t discourage the people that believe he is being managed to underperform in these preps in hopes of peaking on Derby day.  

The third choice, Colonel John, is another underlay and I can say that without even seeing his figure in the SAnta Anita Derby.  His top before the SA Derby was a \"5\".  What would he have had to run in that race to make you like him at 6-1, knowing that his races were on synthetic surfaces?  If he ran a 0 or 1, it would make him a contender, but it would make it a big forward move and he would still be unproven on dirt.  If he ran slower than that, he is an underlay in a 20 horse field with unproven dirt form.

Jerry, you talk about the Bellamy Road lesson.  I agree, that is a reasonable comparison to Big Brown.  I will still say that Bellamy Road\'s Wood Memorial is the best 3 year old prep for the Derby that I have ever seen.  However, I will give you another potential \"lesson\" that happened not too long ago, as I remember it vividly because it cost me a ton of money in the pick-4\'s on Derby day.  Thorograph was ahead of the curve on Smarty Jones, big time.  Smarty was much faster on T-Graph than he was on Beyer, and faster on T-Graph than he was on Ragozin (although the difference was not as great as Beyer, as I remember). I think Beyer even admitted after the Derby that he probably blew several of Smarty\'s prep races, one in the winter at Aqueduct and the Southwest, I believe.  Anyway, the seminar that year suggested that Smarty was too fast and coming off a slight regression and was not recommended.  As I recall, I think you called it 50% that either Lion Heart or the Cliff\'s Edge would win the race.  

Well, we all know what happened there.  Your figures on Smarty were right and he ran back to them.

We have a similar situation on Big Brown.  Apparently Big Brown\'s Fla Derby is much faster on T-Graph than on either Rags or Beyer.  He gets the 5 weeks rest and gets what looks like an inferior field.

He looks legit as the favorite to me.  I think that because the other top contenders are flawed IMHO, the choice is to believe Big Brown is this good and bet accordingly or to throw him out and look for a Giacomo type derby, where a long shot can win.  And I don\'t mean 8 or 10 to 1.  I think the horses that may go off at 30 and 40 to 1 are going to be as appealing as some of the 2nd to 5th choice type horses.

[ronwar]

My thoughts exactly Jimbo

[fkach]

IMHO......

When we are talking about \"big figure\" spring 3YOs running in the classics, we are talking about a very small sample of horses typically moving into a roughly run 20 horse race at 10F that also occasionally has pace extremes that eliminate some of the better horses.

The combination of a very easy trip in a prep race and a bad trip in the Derby, getting hurt in the roughly run Derby after getting banged around, a horse not liking the 10F, pace extremes, etc... will all contribute to wildly varying figure performances that have little or nothing to do with whether a horse was knocked out by a fast figure performance. The Derby is a unique race.

If we had a sample of a thousand horses like BB, we could probably make a good estimate of the chances of BB bouncing. However, IMO looking at the sample we do have is highly likely to bias the thinking in a more negative way than is justified because of that uniqueness of the Derby.

To me, each case is different. IMO you have to look at multiple factors when deciding whether a horse can duplicate that big figure.  

1. The 2YO top

2. How extreme the figure was relative to sustainable thoroughbred performance

3. How big of a jump the horse made to get there

4. Whether the horse has a history of physical problems or getting knocked out by  big efforts

5. The trainer

6. Whether the horse has demonstrated some other clues that he might be special

7. Also, (something that IMO often gets ignored here) whether his fast figure was actually a legitimate performance or the result of uniquely favorable conditions.  

On the last point, I think it\'s very clear that BB\'s last effort was both big and legit.

There was no track bias that aided him in his prep like some of the 3YOs that  failed to duplicate their figure.

He didn\'t get an easy pace and lead in his prep like some of the others that failed.

He didn\'t earn his big figure on an off track like some of the others that failed.  

He was rushed wide from the 12 post and used fairly hard on the first turn to get a clear lead and then set a lively pace all the way. That sets him apart from many of the other 3YOs that failed to duplicate their figures. He actually earned his!

The issues with him are his very gappy record because of prior injuries and the effect a tough race may have had on HIM SPECIFICALLY because of that.

The possibility that he will get used hard prompting the pace of War Pass and get beat by an inferior horse.

The possibility that he doesn\'t have enough foundation and experience to be ready for 10F in the Derby yet.

I don\'t think the comparisons to some of the horses that failed are in any way valid because those were very different horses with very different issues and trips coming in and out of the Derby.

[miff]

\"And to me, a big factor not really discussed on this board much is the lack of quality 3 year olds right now\"


Jim,

....shhhhh, you should hear some of the slow rats being given a chance by some.


Mike

[alm]

Exactly.  This might be the very year that prior results on synthetics expose a significant analytical twist in 3yo development.

[imallin]

The problem with falling in love with any specific runner in the Ky Derby is this. The Ky Derby isn\'t really a horse race like other horse races. There are factors present here that make conventional handicapping go out the window. Like these, for example:

1) 120,000 fans screaming. Horses haven\'t had to deal with this yet.
2) Bumping, jostling and squeezing. Most horse races are run without incident. This race is street fight.
3) Pre race security. Ask yourself if your favorite horse is trained by a guy who is a \'move up\' trainer. Your trainer might not be able to \'do what he does\' for THIS race. I have to imagine that pre race security is tighter for this race than any other race. I have to imagine the runners will be under some kind of 24 hour watch, but i don\'t know this for sure, so don\'t quote me.
4) mile and a quarter. None of these have ever raced at this long of a distance, so any figure they received was at a shorter distance...which,doesn\'t mean a heck of a lot.
5) Track surface. Will be scraped to resemble a paved highway. If your selction has sore feet, he might not like to be running on pavement.

Im sure there are more \'variables\', if anyone has any, please chime in.

Also, remember this: This race is only the Ky Derby for the owners, trainers and jockeys. Its not the Ky Derby to YOU unless you have a financial stake in one of these runners. This race to YOU, is the 9th race at Churchill Downs on Saturday. YOUR \'Ky Derby\' is any race that you decide to make a large play into. If you normally bet 200 dollars a race and then decide one day to bet 1,000 on an event, that race can qualify as your own personal Ky derby.

Please, remember this also, don\'t take any satisfaction in picking the winner of the Ky Derby. Its not really all that important. What IS important is making money at the windows and not selecting the best looking runner on paper so that you can beat your chest to your friends that \'you had the winner\'.

To me, The Ky Derby presents a rare opportunity to make an incredible score. With 20 runners, the exacta and tri can pay into the thousands or tens of thousands. As good as Big Brown is, he\'ll be the favorite which means if you bet the favorite, you greatly diminish your chances of a life changing score. Remember, you can wager on a 3-1 shot any of the other 364 days of the year, why waste this golden opportunity to bet longshots by getting caught up in \'Derby Hype\' and trying to be like your favorite celebrity on Millionaires Row?

If Point Given can run off the board in the Derby with no visible excuse, than i have to imagine Big Brown can do the same.

[ajkreider]

mile and a quarter. None of these have ever raced at this long of a distance, so any figure they received was at a shorter distance...which,doesn\'t mean a heck of a lot.

Tomcito excepted of course, as he has won at the distance (and longer).

[TGJB]

Fkach-- we seldom agree, but I\'m with you on much of that post, though we may disagree as applied to specific horses.

8Belles- I really don\'t think it would be too good for the long term image of my company if I started booking bets. Too bad, beacuse it sounds like I would be booking a lot of horses coming off visually impressive lifetime tops, which means they\'ll be short, and underlays. Yes, sometimes they win. But the Derby alone has produced a long list of that kind of horse going down at  relatively short odds.

Jimbo-- I\'m not going to bet on what Dutrow will do, but I think 50/50 is about right. The over/under for starts this one makes the rest of the year is 2 (which is how many Bellamy Road made).

As for SJ, I still think it was right to bet against him as the favorite, which is different than not liking him. But he was MUCH better going in than BB-- no history of unsoundness, lots of big numbers, strong 2yo tops (plural, including a zero, I think), no bad step/major BI in his final prep. The only plus BB has is Dutrow, and that could end up not being one, depending on what goes on at CD Derby weekend.

Again, what follows does not necessarily represent what my position will be going into the Derby. But in the last futures pool I took small positions on Smooth Air and Visionaire (if I knew he would draw post 11 in the BG I would have waited), and a decent one on War Pass, This was all based on the idea that there is a good chance that BB won\'t make the race, and that I would still be okay with those plays if he does. I think the price on WP is nuts-- I don\'t even have to like him to bet him at that price (14-1).

[RICH]

Hey JB

I got down on SA at 193-1 in Pool 2, you must have liked that last number, what did he jump 2pts?