WOOOW LOOK AT THE RACE OF THE WEEK!!! XCHANGER!!!

[belveondarockz]

is it just me or shouldnt Xchanger run a MONSTER TOMORROW IN THE COMMONWEALTH?!!?  the horse shows nothing but improvement with the forging patter all last year.  made it all the way to a \"0\" effort.. PAIRED then ran a toss out race in the slop then a \"1\"!!!   imo thats amazing!!  the horse has shown to throw off races after top efforts then forge even more!!  the rest should do wonders for this guy!  compared to this crappy field i think hes the horse to beat and this could be a HUGE effort!  =O

[congaree1]

As long as the lay off is not a concern and the fact he has never run on polly, he wins

[belveondarockz]

in fact i will just run down the crew:  in order of post and in my opinion!::

Xchanger -  Looks like he will explode based on what i said in the previous message.

Papa Bear -  6 point new top with a \"3.5\" and only 4 weeks rest. would need to run a new top to compete here ..looks more to me like a reaction off the top... meeee no likey.

Storm Military  -  Pretty consistent turf efforts, might take like to the poly but still a little slower.  3-4 range wouldnt do it but a new top with 7 weeks off isnt out of the question but 9-2 odds does not entice me at all. Il toss!

Buffalo Man -  Out of form the last 4 races and has raced terrible as a 4year old..meee no like that at all.  8 to 1?!  who makes these odds!  =) Toss!

Elite Squandron -  ran that 1.5 then bounced off the walls with 6 weeks of.. was it a bounce or an excuse going two turns?! well easy answer to me..it was a bounce.. they gave em\' 9 weeks off and improved off that bounce 5.5 points to a 10 (he wouldve came back off a top effort or close to it if he didnt going one turn)...now has 7 weeks off.. ok lets subtract 4 points off that 10..means he runs a 6..  TOSS SALAD! EVEN AT 30 To 1 odds =)

Rebellion -  ran 3 great races (after a pretty big jump in points) before eventually going back 5 points on the turf.  trainer has been great but i think this horse will need to prove to me that hes in top form.  6 to 1 not good enough for me here and im expecting a 3-4 at best out of him.  id use this guy lightly for 3rd or 4th at best.

Medzendeekron -  ran a big 1.5 last out and has sweet timing into this race.. i think a pair at best for him though with that jump and a possible 1-2 point reaction is possible but competitive as well..  10 to 1 odds and thats pretty appetizing with me with the exotics.  a must use.

Forefathers - has 7 weeks off but i dunno about u guys..dont u see.. effort off effort off effort off effort.... im going to go out on a limb at 4-1 odds and say he doesnt fire tomorrow! il toss even as the fastest in this race! (MAYBE 4th? round off a super?! since some others are slooow?! ehhh why not)

Thousand Words -  love the horse but not the post or his morning line.  ive noticed over at santa anita on different occasions that horses that set new tops on turf and go to poly track run pretty solid races and come back pretty strong.  A 2 as a top isnt all that impressive but taking into consideration the horses in this field plus frankel plus the turf to poly idea i would say hes a must use in exotics.

Sooooo as a round up...  I would say Xchanger at 4-1 odds is my play...i would think Thousand Words and Medzendeekron would battle out for 2nd.. and 3rd would be between the horse that didnt get second.. forefathers.. and rebellion.

On my pick 3 i would obviously key xchanger a bunch of times and play a couple tickets with xchanger, thousand words, and medzendeekron!  Favorite is vulnerable though and looks like there can be some decent value with that 10-1 crazy named animal!  Good luck to you all!

[belveondarockz]

Xchanger 04/05/2008  FAI  5F  :59.60  All Weather Training  Fast  B    
 03/29/2008  FAI  5F  :59.40  All Weather Training  Fast  B    
 03/22/2008  FAI  5F  :59.80  All Weather Training  Fast  B    
 03/15/2008  FAI  5F  1:00.80  All Weather Training  Fast  B    
 03/07/2008  FAI  4F  :49.00  All Weather Training  Fast  B    
 02/27/2008  FAI  4F  :49.00  All Weather Training  Fast  B  


these are works straight from drf.com..  doesnt look like the poly will be a problem.. with his forging pattern rest should be nothing but beneficial to this horse.

[toppled]

Here\'s my problem with Xchanger:  He\'s a distance horse who hasn\'t run in a sprint since his 1st 2 races as a 2yo at Monmouth.  Most of the time, a move like this screams the race is for conditioning to get the horse tight for the future.  Now one day I was at Belmont & Forego made his seasonal debut in a sprint ( also 7F I think) and he won-but Xchanger is no Forego.  Also, I don\'t see how a horse off since November, racing at a distance that is basically foreign to him has any pattern.  Funny thing is my pick is the same as Thorograph\'s-Rebellion.  He\'s a sprinter whose best distance appears to be 7f.  Has run a 0.2 at this track, has won off a 7 month layoff before, and has a 6f work over the track on Monday.  Like Xchanger, he has no real pattern because of the layoff, so I\'m hoping he\'s ready to fire his best.

[belveondarockz]

i dont see how you can say a horse has a \"favorite distance\".. all horses run into different competition each race and different situations no matter what the distance is.  unless a horse shows he cannot go a long distance specifically i dont take distance into factor i use the numbers as they are printed.  with rebellion all i see is a 5 point backwards move off a top effort.  theres no indication that points to a top effort tomorrow, even with rest.  when it comes to these types of horses that regress that many points off a top i dont ever play them to win or as my key unless a \"5\" would be a huge effort to the horses competition.,, and usually in that case its a drop down in class or a ship to another track.. and still looks suspicious to me.  i use the same idea with distance as i do with the slop.

[spa]

Buffalo had throat work 2 back......................

[belveondarockz]

now that makes sense!  tell the \"morning line\" guy that!  =)

[belveondarockz]

i forgot about Doppio! ha!  but i think he will Bounce and is a toss!

[big18741]

I usually don\'t get swayed by the visual,but Medzendeekrons win over the SA cushion on March 1 was very impressive.To my eye he could have gone a few lengths faster cruising around the track and winning under wraps.

Big four point new top and the ship are issues to deal with but his price should be okay.Medzendeekron on top-and I\'ll use Thousand Words underneath.

[toppled]

I try to be a little more comprehensive than just looking at the numbers.  If that works for you, terrific.  We don\'t all bet on & cash the same races, so a number of theories can work.  What I see in Rebellion is an affinity for this track, a 5 point regression in a race that may have been beyond his distance capabilty on a suface which he\'s a notch below what he is on polytrack.  That doesn\'t mean I\'m all excited about him-he stands a good shot at not winning,due to the layoff, but it just isn\'t Xchanger who is going to be the reason he loses.  I\'m from the old school of handicapping, going back to Tom Ainslie, who in his book likened a horses\'s distance capabilities as measurable by a ruler.  I still believe, no matter what the #s going in say, if the horse is at the wrong distance, it isn\'t set for a winning effort. Good luck, there are plenty of other races than just this one & I\'m sure we\'ll agree on some in the future.

[sekrah]

I like Forefathers here.  Up to 8-1 with 8 MTP.  Going to play him with Xchanger a few different ways.

Edit at 4:37pm:  I like Elite Squadron to threaten the board at 30-1.

[belveondarockz]

looks like xchanger pooped the bed on the poly!  but i will def play him on the regular dirt surface when he races back to it!

[congaree1]

I\'m sure you will be able to get him at 1-2 when he runs back in Maryland. The The Keeneland Poly is very similar to Delmar, it\'s just like turf.

[richiebee]

toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
  Now one day I was at Belmont & Forego
  made his seasonal debut in a sprint ( also 7F I
  think) and he won-but Xchanger is no Forego.

Toppled:

I waited until after the Commonwealth was run to post just so we could be
certain that Xchanger was no Forego.

I am a little uncertain as to why you would be surprised that Forego would
win a sprint. Forego was Champion Sprinter as a 4YO, a year during which he won
the Carter, the Vosburgh and the Met Mile.

As a 5YO Forego won the Carter and the Seminole Hcp. If I am not mistaken both
of these races were run at 7f

As a 6YO and a 7YO Forego won the Met Mile.

Kind of a shame that there wasn\'t an outlet like the TG board available in
Forego\'s time. I would have enjoyed reading the posts saying that he wasn\'t
beating anybody, that he wasn\'t running that fast, that his trainer Frank
Whiteley was a \"juicer\".