"Most Likely Winner of the Derby" - R.I.P

[jimbo66]

Alright, I guess that is being a wiseass to our host about his comments a few weeks back, but I really think this stuff about Asmussen expertly managing Pyro to peak on Derby day and him being the most likely winner has to be over.  Pyro had nothing.  The similarities between him and Street Sense last year are becoming very hard to see.  SS ran a decent race in the Bluegrass, not a complete flop, then ran back to his top in the Derby, on a track where he had run that same figure on a dry, fair surface in the BC.  Pyro ran god awful today, and earned his big figure in a sea of slop in his BC race.  

JB, you will definitely cash big if your opinions on this derby hold up.  I don\'t see the Pyro comment and I see even less what you posted yesterday about War Pass being AT LEAST AS LIKELY a winner as Big Brown.  I look forward to seeing the figures you gave out in the Wood to justify that.  War Pass\'s pattern for this year is \"x-x-x\".  (unless you gave an incredibly fast figure to War Pass in the Wood, which seems unlikely).  

Not sure the races today will have a big impact on the derby.  Z Fortune would seem to have run a very nice race based on Albarado\'s wide ride.  Not sure about Monba or Cowboy Cal on dirt in the Derby.  They will take a little bit of \"pletcher money\" although I can\'t see either one less than 20-1.  

Pyro\'s odds now?  5-1ish?  Maybe longer?  Big Brown, probably now a miserly 2-1 in a 20 horse field.

Yes, Richiebee, he will have the lead down the backside and I think he is the most likely winner, but 2-1 in a 6 horse race is difficult for me to take.  In a 20 horse race, fuhgetaboutit.  Gotta find something long to key.  Want to see Z Fortune\'s pattern after this race.

[Uncle Buck]

Z Fortune is going to look good on paper for sure. He clearly ran a better figure than Mike Gayego yesterday. Not sure if he has the heart of a Derby winner though...Seems to hang a little. If Gomez gets on, he moves up 2 lengths

[BitPlayer]

Jimbo –

I don\'t agree with your take on the Blue Grass.  When horses don\'t run on synthetic tacks, they often don\'t run at all, but that doesn\'t tell you anything about their dirt track speed.

To take a couple of recent examples, Electrify shipped from Calder, where he had just run a new top of \"-2.25\" after a string of races in the \"0\" range, to run in the Sunshine Millions Classic on the scraped Cushion at Santa Anita.  He ran a \"6.5\" that day, but bounced back to romp in a stake at Gulfstream on the Florida Derby card.  Since he ran two lengths faster than Big Brown had run 2 races earlier (albeit under 4 pounds less), I\'m guessing he at least got back to the \"-2.25.\"

Also shipping into SA for the Sunshine Millions was Diamond Stripes, sporting a top of \"-2.5\" and four negative numbers in 2007.  He ran a \"5\", but later bounced back to win his race in Dubai.

As for the effect of the Blue Grass on Pyro\'s fitness, it\'s hard to imagine he got much less out of it than Street Sense got out of crawling around Keeneland and then running 2 furlongs last year.

I understand your point about not putting much weight on Pyro\'s top in the slop, but given that the winner of the Blue Grass got only a \"2.75\", it\'s hard to imagine what Pyro could have done last Saturday to validate his 2yo top.

In the end, I don\'t think the Blue Grass told us much about Pyro.  If you liked him going in, I can\'t see why you wouldn\'t still like him.  If you didn\'t, you still don\'t, but I think it\'s a little early for an epitaph.

[fkach]

>In the end, I don\'t think the Blue Grass told us much about Pyro. If you liked him going in, I can\'t see why you wouldn\'t still like him. If you didn\'t, you still don\'t, but I think it\'s a little early for an epitaph<

IMO, there is at least \"some\" probability that he didn\'t run poorly just because of the POLY. Poly may have hid a problem that has yet to be recognized. Maybe both contributed to the poor effort. How do we know?

IMO, that\'s always a small risk when you throw out a race because of surface, distance etc.... even when it\'s logical to do so. How to quantify it is anyone\'s guess. But IMHO, it\'s almost always a mistake to simply toss out a race and accept the same exact odds you would if you were evaluating a horse off his last race. Plus, I also don\'t think Pyro got anything at all out of the race. He never ran. At least SS ran really hard for 3-4 furlongs and engaged in a serious stretch battle last year.

To me, the ideal scenario would have been for him to move forward a little and move closer to his peak at 2. That would have given me more confidence he was ready for a repeat of his top or a new top. Right now, I have no idea where he is and IMO neither does his trainer. We just suspect we can totally toss out the race because many horses bounce back off a poor outing on Poly.

I am considering playing Pyro, but I want at least a couple of extra ticks on the board to take him off this strategic blunder. I want to be compensated for the unknowns. His odds may more than compensate because the public could over do it and ignore him more than it should, but I still want compensation.

[jimbo66]

Bit Player,

Good points.  My \"R.I.P\" comment was a bit of a stretch.  Pyro certainly has a shot.  My main point about him is that he is just one of many with a bit of a shot, not deserving of being one of the favorites, and certainly an underlay on Derby Day.  I was disagreeing with Jerry\'s comments about Pyro being the most likely winner of the derby in his interview a few weeks back.  I don\'t see the comparison between Street Sense and Pyro both being \"managed\" to peak on Derby day.  At least not in a tangible way.

Street Sense ran in the Bluegrass last year.  I disagree with your assertion that he got nothing out of it.  He ran a credible race in defeat.  Pyro never picked up his feet and never tried.  To me, a Grade 1 quality animal should give an effort on any surface.  It wasn\'t like Pyro\'s was sitting on a \"bounce\" pattern, he wasn\'t.  

I know that polycrap, besides ruining the game, has altered the relevance of many statistics, but I still find it somewhat interesting that the last winner of the Derby to finish worse than 4th in their last prep race was back in 1957 and that horse ran 5th.  Pyro was miserable, running 10th.

I will be searching for value here and won\'t have a strong opinion until I see the final field and full sheets for all contenders, but I still think Z Fortune probably has a good longshot chance.  He had a \"3\" and \"2\" before the bounce, then my bet is that he moved forward, close the \"0\" range on Saturday.  It could be \"bounce\" in 3 weeks, off the relatively short rest, but it also makes him fast enough to be a contender and I expect 20-1 or better on the horse.  I think you need to go long for a key horse,as I would say that the \"most likely winner\" is Big Brown, which is of course a useless opinion, in that the publice agrees.  But, I would say that he is most likely in the 20% range to win, and he figures to go off 2-1 or so, so he will be an underlay.

[Uncle Buck]

Personally - I fully expect Pyro fo fire on Derby Day and will be looking for him to come running in the stretch. I predict he will get within one point of his top but with traffic and a relatively inexperienced Derby Jockey up, I don\'t like him on top but certainly on the board. That said - it wouldn\'t shock me if he ran by them all and I will play savers with him. Of all the question mark horses, he scares me the most. Then again - they all have question marks this year, but are all slower and less talented than Big Brown.

It\'s amazing how fearless I was in playing last year\'s Derby. I was totally convinced Street Sense would win that race and bet it accordingly. This year - I don\'t get that feeling but will bet the Lion\'s share on the most talented and fastest horse - Big Brown. Provided I\'m convinced he\'s healthy.

[BitPlayer]

Jimbo –

I agree with much of what you wrote and always enjoy and respect your posts.

On Pyro, something I read a while ago may be tangentially relevant.  In \"The Body Language of Horses\" (which did nothing for my handicapping), Ainslie and Ledbetter make the point that, because the primary defense mechanism of a horse is to run away, horses are genetically wired to fear loosing their footing.  If true, that may explain why even a good horse fails to put forth an effort when he feels uncertain about the footing provided by a surface.

I would agree with fkach that, even if you like Pyro, you have to view the Blue Grass as a bump in the road, and demand slightly higher odds to play him off that poor effort.  For myself, in addition to the slop figure, I have concerns about his breeding and ability to show the same punch at 10 furlongs that he has to date shown only up 8.5.  I learned nothing about that from the Blue Grass.

I agree with you that, even if Pyro\'s \"-1\" in the slop is taken at face value, there are enough other horses in that vicinity to make him a risky proposition at short odds.  The quality of this year\'s 3yo crop has been widely criticized, but (although I haven\'t seen figures for the last round of Derby preps) I wouldn\'t be surprised if there are more horses in the Derby gate with tops of \"1\" or better this year than last year\'s five. I suspect Z Fortune is one of them.

The Derby is nothing if not a \"trip\" race.  It\'s not by accident that four of the first five finishers last year were 1w on the first turn (Curlin being the sole exception) and three of them were also 1w on the second turn.  For my exotics, I\'ll look for horses who are in a competitive range figurewise and could pay well if they work out a favorable trip.  In that regard, all the 3w\'s and 4w\'s on Z Fortune\'s sheet are a bit of a concern.  Pyro, on the other hand, is an example of a horse that has been schooled this spring to run inside, negotiate traffic, and split horses when necessary.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Maybe this is a bit repetitive, but you have to look at the top of both War Pass and Pyro. They both topped on a slop track in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and neither has come anywhere near repeating, even as \"maturing\" 3YO\'s. How do you overemphasize that fact? Maybe Pyros next highest figure is indeed a 2. Maybe its a couple lengths slower. If it is a 3, then what?

fkach is absolutely right. Maybe Pyro didn\'t handle the rubber, but maybe he\'s got something going on. How do you know? Watch his subsequent works for clues is about all you can do.

Pedigree. What makes anyone think that Pyro is gonna finish generally late timed moves at just over a mile strongly at 10 poles? What is it about Pulpit and Wild Again that makes folks think hes gonna close strongly at the Derby distance like Unbridled or Street Sense? If Pyro had run a strong 9 pole event we might have a better clue. Not saying he can\'t close, but he is Pulpit out of a full sister to Wild Wonder, who was shorter race specialist.

If he\'s not at least 10-1 or fifth choice, you\'re getting completely jobbed.

fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >In the end, I don\'t think the Blue Grass told us
> much about Pyro. If you liked him going in, I
> can\'t see why you wouldn\'t still like him. If you
> didn\'t, you still don\'t, but I think it\'s a little
> early for an epitaph<
>
> IMO, there is at least \"some\" probability that he
> didn\'t run poorly just because of the POLY. Poly
> may have hid a problem that has yet to be
> recognized. Maybe both contributed to the poor
> effort. How do we know?
>
> IMO, that\'s always a small risk when you throw out
> a race because of surface, distance etc.... even
> when it\'s logical to do so. How to quantify it is
> anyone\'s guess. But IMHO, it\'s almost always a
> mistake to simply toss out a race and accept the
> same exact odds you would if you were evaluating a
> horse off his last race. Plus, I also don\'t think
> Pyro got anything at all out of the race. He never
> ran. At least SS ran really hard for 3-4 furlongs
> and engaged in a serious stretch battle last year.
>
>
> To me, the ideal scenario would have been for him
> to move forward a little and move closer to his
> peak at 2. That would have given me more
> confidence he was ready for a repeat of his top or
> a new top. Right now, I have no idea where he is
> and IMO neither does his trainer. We just suspect
> we can totally toss out the race because many
> horses bounce back off a poor outing on Poly.
>
> I am considering playing Pyro, but I want at least
> a couple of extra ticks on the board to take him
> off this strategic blunder. I want to be
> compensated for the unknowns. His odds may more
> than compensate because the public could over do
> it and ignore him more than it should, but I still
> want compensation.

[covelj70]

I think the fact that he is staying up at Keenland to breeze next week suggests that he has something wrong with him that they hope to nurse through to the derby by keeping him on the poly (with the poly suppossedly being easier on the body).  Otherwise, why breeze him on the poly next week (which is the plan) instead of getting him back onto the surface he likes.

[Uncle Buck]

Assmusen had Curlin and all other BC starters training at Keeneland prior to last fall\'s Monmouth Mudfest. That worked out pretty good for him and Pyro.

Pyro will look like a keg of dynamite in the stretch at Louisville - of that I\'m sure. Whether he has a clear path or not and is too far behind Big Brown to catch up is my question.

[congaree1]

Buck, you must love War pass too. He beat Pyro 3 times.

[covelj70]

Pyro didn\'t have sore feet before the BC last year which many are speculating that he does now.

[Uncle Buck]

Congaree - I actually hate War Pass but I hate Congaree more than any other horse in history. When he spit the bit and couldn\'t hold second in the Monarchos Derby it cost me about 10 large.

I\'ve stated my case for this year\'s Derby at least three times on here. Big Brown for fun. But that\'s just me.

As for War Pass - I doubt he\'ll ever get near his 2 year old top let alone hit the board at Churchill

[congaree1]

That was a tuff blow that year, i know how you feel. Every time I look at that photo, it still looks like Congaree ran 2nd. I tried to get the Wood back, that year and I see know reason why this years Florida derby can run in this year. Smooth air is a freak!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Pyro isn\'t gonna be in with immature, out of form and overmatched horses next time.

As it stands, Pyro isn\'t nearly fast enough. He\'s been dawdling on lethargic fractions. When he decides to run in the Derby he\'s gonna be 3 seconds behind and he\'ll need to suddenly become faster than he has ever been and he\'ll need the Red Sea to part to have a prayer. However, even assuming the bank is in view before the race is over, Pyro is gonna find it very very steep.

The race value does not include Pyro, but its good to fall in love with a horse.

Love, love, love...
Love, love, love...
Love, love, love...
Love is all you need..love is all you need


Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Congaree - I actually hate War Pass but I hate
> Congaree more than any other horse in history.
> When he spit the bit and couldn\'t hold second in
> the Monarchos Derby it cost me about 10 large.
>
> I\'ve stated my case for this year\'s Derby at least
> three times on here. Big Brown for fun. But that\'s
> just me.
>
> As for War Pass - I doubt he\'ll ever get near his
> 2 year old top let alone hit the board at
> Churchill