Eight Belles

[covelj70]

Porter now suggesting she is going to run in the Derby over the Oaks which kills me as I have a big futures pool wager on her at 8-1 (2nd pool).

Anyway, a few questions:

1) If she runs, does she get 5 pounds? She\'s already faster on the sheets than anyone except for Big Brown even with the extra point for the weight break
2) Isn\'t she what many on this board seems to be looking for (i.e. an answer for where to turn if you don\'t like Big Brown (which I don\'t)
3) I don\'t know what she ran on the sheets last weekend but it seemed like she may have paired her 0 based on the times and the trip (3w I believe) so if her pattern is 1-0-0 heading into the derby, shouldn\'t she be pretty live?

[Eight Belles]

covelj70 Wrote:
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> Porter now suggesting she is going to run in the
> Derby over the Oaks which kills me as I have a big
> futures pool wager on her at 8-1 (2nd pool).

If it makes you feel better, I\'ve got her at 22-1.
 
> Anyway, a few questions:
>
> 1) If she runs, does she get 5 pounds? She\'s
> already faster on the sheets than anyone except
> for Big Brown even with the extra point for the
> weight break

Yes, she\'d carry 121 to their 126.

[covelj70]

1) Thanks for the clarification on the weight
2) Jesus, and I thought I felt bad, you must me sick to your stomach (although my bet was pretty big so on second thought, we should both be sick to our stomachs)
3) If Big Brown\'s top is only 3.25 points better than Eight Belles and she gets a point for the weight break, those who are arguing that Big Brown can bounce and still win are going to have to adjust their thinking.

[richiebee]

From the Downey Report:

\"Trainer Larry Jones continues to leave the door ajar for a Derby appearance by
the filly Eight Belles. \'I\'m conservative by nature\' Jones said today \'and I\'ve
always believed in running fillies against fillies. But Eight Belles is
something special AND HER OWNER WOULD REALLY LIKE TO SEE HER IN THE
DERBY\'\" (emphasis added).

At least Jones is honest. And I guess if you buy into the weak crop of 3YOs
theory this isn\'t the worst year to try a filly in the Derby.

The assistant trainers for Steve Asmussen (Pyro) and Barclay Tagg (Big Truck)
reported that their runners were in top condition Sunday morning following the
Blue Grass-- not surprising considering neither of these colts extended
themselves at all on Saturday.

[covelj70]

I liked Pyro alot before yesterday as I was a believer in the notion that Asmussen knows how to build up a horse prior to a big race (a la Nafger last year).  He did it with Curlin last year heading into the Classic.

However, I am also a believer in a horse needing the necessary foundation heading into the Derby and if Pyro didn\'t get anything out of the race, I am not sure he\'s as solid as I thought he was prior to yesterday.

One thing I will be watching is the workouts.  Pyro had 4 very soft works heading into the Bluegrass which should have been all that we needed to see to know that he wasn\'t tuned up for this.  So, if he posts 2 bullet works between now and the Derby, then I would be more inclined to throw out yesterday\'s race.

One final nugget, in looking through the PP\'s for the last 5 Derbys, note that each of the last 5 winners had a huge work (all happened to be a bullet) leading up to the Derby.  This supports the notion that a horse needs foundation and stamina.  No bit bullet work, no blanket of roses.  If we don\'t see it from Pyro, then he\'s a throw out (same for Big Brown but he\'s a throw out for other reasons anyway).

[BitPlayer]

One possibility that seems to be in play is to enter her in both the Derby and the Oaks and then make a final decision after seeing the Derby draw.  Since the Derby has no also-eligible list, she would exclude someone even if she doesn\'t run.

[firmturf]

\"I was a believer in the notion that Asmussen knows how to build up a horse prior to a big race (a la Nafger last year). He did it with Curlin last year heading into the Classic. \"

Maybe we were all making the wrong horse in the barn the favorite? Z Humor ran well in Arkansas.

[covelj70]

Good point, do you think we need to worry about him bouncing now in the Derby given what looks like a pretty big jump from the Rebel to the Arkansas Derby?

[firmturf]

Heck if I know. I bet him in the future pools because I thought he offered value.

I think others on here are smarter then me in determining wether he moves forward or reacts.

[big18741]

covelj70 Wrote:
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> Good point, do you think we need to worry about
> him bouncing now in the Derby given what looks
> like a pretty big jump from the Rebel to the
> Arkansas Derby?

IF() TG scores the Arkansas a zero for the winner as suggested in an earlier post-you could make the case for tossing both 1-2 finishers from the Derby.Gayego drifting again and a 3pt new top-now only three weeks rest.Z Fortune an even bigger new top and a negative #.

I\'m curious to see what kind of betting support either of them draws in the Derby.Z Fortune with an inside post might look attractive.He\'s been outside all spring.

[miff]

Horses coming from Poly/synt have been outrunning their figs. Maybe they are doing well because of \"poly bottom\". Doubt anyone except BB,Pyro and Col John will be less than 10-1 as far as betting goes.

This race looked a little paceless last month, then Gayego, Bobs Blackjack and the Ill Derby winner show and cahnge the complexion  rather dramaticially from a pace standpoint.

Mike