Big Brown to train at PmM up to Derby

[covelj70]

Note though that all 5 of them posted a huge work prior to the Derby (with Street Sense\'s work coming in his next to last Derby work and the other 4 in their last works before the race).  We need to see a big work from Big Brown down at Palm Meadows prior to the Derby or he can be thrown out on that reason alone.  Hard Spun also had that same kind of blowout work before his big effort last year.  It\'s a sign that the horse is fit and that they are doing well, it\'s a must

[BitPlayer]

Sandreadis -

I\'m not arguing that Dutrow\'s decision is a good one.  I haven\'t a clue.  I\'m just saying that it\'s an issue that different trainers have approached differently.

As for Dutrow, I can\'t rule out that (as your initial post hinted) staying away from regulatory eyes for as long as possible is a consideration.  But he may also want to keep the horse out of the Derby hubbub for as long as possible and keep the horse working over a surface that has been allowing its feet to improve.  Dutrow may think that a gallop or two over the track will suffice to get Big Brown acclimated to his new surroundings.

Handicappers probably stand to benefit more from seeing one work over the track than the trainer does.  The trainer is pretty much out of options at that point.

[ajkreider]

Well, from Dutrow\'s comments, he\'s not going to go for a big work.  I think he believes BB has the talent already to win, and just wants to keep him healthy and fresh.

[Flighted Iron]

Since you only asked for one,I say Snow Chief.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Tricky Dick is looking for two more 1:00 flat five pole works. Most of his works are right in that ballpark with an additional furlong gallop out. Don\'t expect that to change.

ajkreider Wrote:
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> Well, from Dutrow\'s comments, he\'s not going to go
> for a big work.  I think he believes BB has the
> talent already to win, and just wants to keep him
> healthy and fresh.

[marcus]

two more work outs and how many since his last race ? imo 4 or more somehow just doesn\'t add up - big browns not returning from a lay-off ! maybe they\'re looking for something and if there is indeed  an ankle issue , perhaps it\'s being evaluated . if they\'re not trying to fatten him up , maybe they should cut him loose next time and let him really blow-out , then see what he does on his own after that in another work before the derby ...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I don\'t see any evidence in BRB\'s past works that he is a \"blow out\" horse. His March 25th workout was a little hot, but I think we need to defer to Tricky Dick in how he intends to bring his horse to the Derby. From my perspective, I don\'t want him getting too headstrong in the Derby and going right for the lead and I don\'t think he will. The works appear to be rateable works and I\'m sure the workout\'s are strategic and BRB per usual is laying off Diamond Stripes or perhaps his post Dubai Cup surrogate and taking measure of his workmate down the lane. He\'s a rateable horse and the works he\'s throwing represent that.

I think folks are looking at the Florida Derby Gate Blast and figuring he will employ the same tactic in the Kentucky Derby. I don\'t think so. It appears, at least to me, that Post 12 at Hallandale is the \"dead zone\" and Dutrow knew it. His horse had no graded earnings coming into the Florida Derby and had to win or finish second to make the field, so a gate bust was mandatory. I really think it is as simple as that.

marcus Wrote:
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> two more work outs and how many since his last
> race ? imo 4 or more somehow just doesn\'t add up -
> big browns not returning from a lay-off ! maybe
> they\'re looking for something and if there is
> indeed  an ankle issue , perhaps it\'s being
> evaluated . if they\'re not trying to fatten him up
> , maybe they should cut him loose next time and
> let him really blow-out , then see what he does on
> his own after that in another work before the
> derby ...

[marcus]

getting the horse to rate and adding conditioning with the extra furlong gallop makes a lot sense imo . i agree with your take on the fla derby . if sufficient pace is there to set up for a 2nd and 3rd wave of closers , it\'s also got to help the chances as well for someone who rates smartly and gets a good trip ...

[alm]

While I agree with most of this analysis, it seems to me works up to 5 furlongs are primarily for conditioning, not for teaching rating.  Traditionally, trainers will use a 6 furlong or longer work with a hot quarter mile finish to get a horse used to finishing.  

If Dutrow preps this horse up to the race off a series of 5 furlong works, he\'s just trying to maintain condition.  It\'s not a tipoff in any sense of how he plans to run the race.

I ran into a horse owner at Gulfstream this week who is a backstretch guy of some substance.  He told me the horse has a knee in addition to an ankle and hoof issue.  Maybe, maybe not.

[covelj70]

Problem with this is that no horse in very recent histroy has won the Derby without a blowout work leading up to the race.  

Street Sense\'s work two out was a monster and we know we had no trouble hanging back early.  Same with Barbaro the year before (last work) and Giacomo the year before that (last work).  Same with Smarty and War Emblem.

Given how lightly raced horses are today compared to 15 years ago, I think only recent history is relevant here.

You need the blowout work to ensure you have the fitness/foundation which is all the more important in the case of a lightly raced horse with a pedigree that doesn\'t suggest 1 1/4.

I think what Stutts seems to be doing with Smooth Air is more what\'s necessary as oppossed to babying a horse into the race which is what Dutrow is doing.

Turst me, I like Dutrow, he trains a horse that I own, it\'s just that I don\'t think you can train a horse so lightly into a situation that they have never been in before and expect the horse to perform well.

[ajkreider]

Another work for BB today.  More of the same:  5F in 1:00.6 or something.  Looks like he\'s sticking to the plan.

And since it\'s been less than a week since his last work, I think it\'s safe to say that at least Dutrow isn\'t concerned about injury.

[fkach]

Looks like BB had another nice scheduled work out.

[ajkreider]

This is interesting, from DRF.com

Originally the colt\'s final Florida work was to have come at Palm Meadows on April 28, just hours before he is scheduled to board a flight for Louisville. Instead, Dutrow has penciled that breeze in four days earlier, a change that will allow him to give Big Brown a three-furlong blowout over the Churchill Downs strip on Thursday of Derby week.

I guess there will be a blowout after all!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Theres a spine problem too. Hes medicated and acupunctured. They bring him from Palm Meadows over to Hallandale every other morning for a walk about and some backstretch coffee. Sharp eyes can pick it out those days.

alm Wrote:
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> While I agree with most of this analysis, it seems
> to me works up to 5 furlongs are primarily for
> conditioning, not for teaching rating.
> Traditionally, trainers will use a 6 furlong or
> longer work with a hot quarter mile finish to get
> a horse used to finishing.  
>
> If Dutrow preps this horse up to the race off a
> series of 5 furlong works, he\'s just trying to
> maintain condition.  It\'s not a tipoff in any
> sense of how he plans to run the race.
>
> I ran into a horse owner at Gulfstream this week
> who is a backstretch guy of some substance.  He
> told me the horse has a knee in addition to an
> ankle and hoof issue.  Maybe, maybe not.