War Pass out!

[ajkreider]

WP going down probably means Bob Black Jack gets in.  Not really sure the pace of the race will play out that differently.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Everyone is entitled to their views. All I can say is that I believed the Tampa Bay Derby proved that War Pass had one way to run and he ran that way in the Wood and ran well and would have won but for the shenanigans of one William Mott. For that contemptible action, Mott now must also overcome the \"curse of the Gypsy clown.\" Thats right, I put the whammy on him. War Pass was going to motor for the lead. Now someone else will motor for the lead and I think those fractions will be significantly slower.

I want to talk briefly about the Lexington. I doubt I\'ll bet it but I do think Tomcito lays over the field. The problem is that its Poly and good dirt horses and Poly don\'t mix.

The best Poly horse in the race looks to be St. Joe. I\'ll give him a pass on the atrocious Hallandale form and he may not be a two turn horse. That said he does like Keeneland and that counts in his favor.

Salute the Sarge is the best non Keeneland poly horse.

ajkreider Wrote:
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> WP going down probably means Bob Black Jack gets
> in.  Not really sure the pace of the race will
> play out that differently.

[smalltimer]

jimbo,
Nice post, lots of interesting thoughts. I counted myself as among those who liked War Pass just as much as Brown.  Anyone who thinks they both didn\'t have questions or issues would be fooling themselves.  But yes, I gave War Pass a punchers chance before he was declared out.
Since I\'m a newcomer to Thoro, I\'ll classify myself as a pace guy, okay?  Its tough to argue that ANYONE knows what the pace scenario might actually be.  We can all use \"logic\" and think a certain way, it seldom pans out in the Derby.
Based on the Ill Derby numbers, I give Recapturetheglory exactly zero chance of seeing the front in.  If a guy didn\'t know better, you would have thought the race was on poly.  7 horse field, the first 5 finishers all ran a Late Pace of 100+.  That\'s unheard of.  Course Recapture set figures of 80/88/116 which will place him solidly in about 8th or 10th place on the backside.  Nothing in his PP\'s shows he has the gas to go to the front if others are determined to get there first.  Off the top of my head, it looks like (assuming a clean break which typically doesn\'t happen with 20 horses), Brown, Smooth Air, Gayego, Tale of Ekati, Tres Borachos, Anak Nakal, are all capable of being in the first flight.
That doesn\'t even include Bob Blackjack who may inherit the lead by default.  
I have nothing against Brown being the heavy favorite although I\'m playing against him.  It wouldn\'t be the first time I got it handed to me by the best horse in the race.  As far as being a guy who won\'t play the favorite, I\'ve also landed pretty hard on Street Sense, Smarty as well as Charismatic and Giacomo. Once the field is determined, I\'ll decide who and why I\'m playing what.  
I think Pyro is a near throw out.  I think he put up big numbers at the FG, but I have questions about him getting the full distance.  If I\'m not mistaken, a couple days ago there was a pole asking the fans if the way Pyro ran in the Bluegrass affected their liking him in the Derby and I think 54% said it was just a throw out race.  No doubt, until Brown emerged, it was all Pyro with a lot of the public, I still think Pyro will be well played.  The fact that Asmussen was parading the horse with Curlin apparently makes some people think those two horses breathe the same air.  If I get beat by Pyro and/or Brown, then thats just gonna be tough luck for me. I\'ve studied this crop of 3 year olds everyday for the last 5 months, so if I don\'t know who I have to beat in 2 weeks you can question my logic.  
Great post regardless!!

[Eight Belles]

smalltimer Wrote:
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> Monmouth Guy,
> That\'s entirely possible.  I just can\'t believe
> that Kent\'s gonna send that colt and try to wire
> the field.  We\'ve all seen it done, but we\'ve also
> seen some good ones get cooked on the front end
> too.  It\'s gonna be interesting to see what
> unfolds.  Whichever way you ultimately decide to
> play, good luck.

But now BB is able to sit right off the lead while going slower than he would have if War Pass was in there.

I think this makes the race easier for BB.

[smalltimer]

That\'s probably true Eight Belles.  Most Derby\'s go right as planned and are won in pretty easy fashion...