Cal Expo(sed)?

[P-Dub]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P- Dub:
>
> As much as I hate to agree with a man who
> sometimes seems to take things too
> seriously, I also will not be drinking from the
> Big Brown jug of Kool Aid which
> will be passed around on Derby Day.
>
> I will be interested to read what trainer\'s past
> and present have to say about
> the Big Brown and his foundation (or lack
> thereof); in my opinion he becomes
> quite vulnerable at the 1/8th pole no matter what
> kind of trip he works out.
>
> \"Kernel\" John has been working well and if he
> turns in a decent CD work he could
> be second or third favored at odds of 6-1 or less,
> no bargain given his lack of
> experience on dirt; still he will be played on my
> multiple race and Oaks/Derby
> double tickets.
>
> A longer price will be Cool Coal Man, who was good
> in the Fountain of Youth,
> bad in the Blue Grass,but had a good race at CD as
> a 2YO.
>
> Looking forward to the \"advance edition\" of the
> TGs so the real studying can begin.


RB,

That would include a lot of people around here. I don\'t take things too seriously, but some people don\'t like it when the facts get in the way of a good story (i.e. Cal horses being regarded as useless despite the record).  And I\'m sure it killed you to agree with me. You\'re coming around, my NY friend.  I\'ll try to settle down, sometimes I can\'t help myself.  I don\'t think I\'m on Flighted\'s list of favorites right now.

Agree about Colonel John. He\'ll be second choice behind BB, possibly around 9/2 which makes him tough to key on top. A must use underneath though.  When do the Derby sheets come out??

[fkach]

I think you guys are underrating the significance of tough trips, kickback, getting bumped, screaming fans, large fields etc... on inexperienced hoses like BB.

To begin with, there\'s a long history of top horses that didn\'t cope with the excitement and conditions of the Derby. A lot of them didn\'t fire their best shot in the Derby for no apparent reason, came back with a big race at Pimlico, and were consistent after that. You can start with Damascus and work your way forward.

Granted this is the first time any of them will be exposed to Derby conditions. But personally, I think a horse with 8 starts and experience in a lot more situations is probably a better bet to cope with it than one with 3 and very little.

BB has a bit of seasoning, but not as much as Barbaro for example. He didn\'t have the easiest of trips in the Florida Derby, but he still really hasn\'t gotten banged around, got off a step slow and found himself getting dirt kicked in his face, between horses, etc...  If you don\'t think things like that happen to speed horses like BB, watch Seattle Slew\'s Derby. And of course you still have to worry about him being fit enough to get 10F after just a few starts.

IMO, he\'s clearly the best horse.

IMO, he is more likely to duplicate his recent effort than some people think because it was actually a legitimate performance and not an easy trip figure.

IMO, his inexperience is a negative at 10F in the Derby. He may not duplicate his figure even if he remains very sharp if he gets a banged around a little or isn\'t ready for 10F. These lightly raced horses have tended to underform.

[Flighted Iron]

\"Apparently some of you think he\'s going to waltz out of the gate, go to the lead and never look back. Maybe he will, I\'ll be interested to read how you make your wagers before the race. He\'s off my tickets. You seem pretty sensitive regarding BB, I\'ll lay off for now.\"

P-Dub,

This really has nothing to do with BB.It has everything to do with my point of
view vs. yours.No real special fan of BB here other than the fact of his
figures and running style which make him a contender for the board.I think it
foolish not to have BB on some tri and super tickets.

[MonmouthGuy]

I reviewed your contribution to this thread, and while Cal horses have hit the board, other than Fu Peg every other top Cal horse (meaning the lowest odds horse from California) in the last 10 years has not run to his odds in the Derby.

And at least FuPeg came east for his final prep, whereas this years hot Cali contender is choosing to prep exclusively on synthetic before shipping east.


In my original post, I picked 2006 b/c that was a year where 5 of the top 8 choices on the tote were from California, and none of them hit the board.  I tossed them all b/c of the 5 horse fields that littered the 2006 Cali prep season---although I crashed and burned that year on the SNS bandwagon.

I will be tossing all of the California horses except Gayego this year (b/c he left California and ran a good number on dirt in a legitimate size field).

I actually find it hard to believe that you believe CJ is a must use in exotics while BB is a toss.

CJ will have to run a 3-4 point top on a surface he has never run on as a first time shipper to hit the board. Too many firsts for me.  Like Pyro, I see him passing tiring horses and finishing an unthreatening 7th-10th. Just my opinion.  I\'ll toss him, if he beats me, so be it.

[P-Dub]

MonmouthGuy Wrote:
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> I reviewed your contribution to this thread, and
> while Cal horses have hit the board, other than Fu
> Peg every other top Cal horse (meaning the lowest
> odds horse from California) in the last 10 years
> has not run to his odds in the Derby.
>
> And at least FuPeg came east for his final prep,
> whereas this years hot Cali contender is choosing
> to prep exclusively on synthetic before shipping
> east.
>
>
> In my original post, I picked 2006 b/c that was a
> year where 5 of the top 8 choices on the tote were
> from California, and none of them hit the board.
> I tossed them all b/c of the 5 horse fields that
> littered the 2006 Cali prep season---although I
> crashed and burned that year on the SNS
> bandwagon.
>
> I will be tossing all of the California horses
> except Gayego this year (b/c he left California
> and ran a good number on dirt in a legitimate size
> field).
>
> I actually find it hard to believe that you
> believe CJ is a must use in exotics while BB is a
> toss.
>
> CJ will have to run a 3-4 point top on a surface
> he has never run on as a first time shipper to hit
> the board. Too many firsts for me.  Like Pyro, I
> see him passing tiring horses and finishing an
> unthreatening 7th-10th. Just my opinion.  I\'ll
> toss him, if he beats me, so be it.


You make a lot of valid ponts here Monmouth.  We\'ll agree to disagree with the past Cal horses.  If you win the race, I think your odds are justified - especially the juicy win mutuels on Giacomo and Charismatic.  Real Quiet and Silver Charm justified their odds by almost winning the Triple Crown.

I feel Colonel John is a must use for a few reasons.  One is his consistency, I don\'t believe he\'s finished worse than second in 6 starts.  He\'s also run 1 1/8 twice. Due to his running style he may have traffic, but I\'ll hope that isn\'t an issue.  His off the pace style suits the long CD stretch.  

As for the numbers,  we\'ve seen several Cal synth runners outrun there numbers when shipping.  There have been a few posts lately with theories as to why. So despite being a little light in numbers, theres reason to believe he\'s better than they appear.  I think he\'s shown better consistency and talent than some of the horses you mentioned that crashed and burned last year.

I\'m tossing BB for the reasons I mentioned previously.  I can\'t have 2 well bet horses in the exotics, so I have to toss one.  Appreciate your response.