Asmussen #'s in the Derby

[big18741]

Small sample


Curlin 0 - his only runner that paired up.

Zanjero 5.75- his top came two races prior 2.25 at FG

Private Vow 9.5 X\'d -paired his 2yo top 2.25 in the Ark Derby

Storm Treasure 7.5 X\'d - ran a new top of 1.75 in the BG a 2.25 pt jump

QGR eased up X\'d-ran a new top of 1.5 in the Lexington a 2.25 pt jump

Private Emblem 9.0 X\'d-ran a new top of 2.0 in the Ark Derby a 4 pt jump

Fifty Stars 7.25-was coming in off small paired tops 5.5

[miff]

Big 18741,

Good info on Asmussen but except for the inexperienced Curlin, none of the horses you mention were really much stock.If you are willing to forgive Pyro\'s effort on despicable poly, his line is solid and understated by slow paced preps.Looking inside the numbers, he has consistent explosive acceleration like very few in the race.If, (BIG IF) he is right on Sat, I believe he will circle most of these like they are standing still.

Pyro\'s overdue return to dirt has him looking like a new horse the last few days,very explosive works/gallops under restraint.The only legit threat, fig wise, to a healthy BB on Sat, imo.


Mike

[alm]

Finally, some useful information on the board...I needed this, thanks.

Having said this, I think Miff\'s subsequent post on Pyro is also super useful.

Posters who are \'reaching\' for a double-digit result this year are going to be reaching for their wallets to bet the next race on the CD card Saturday.

It\'s coming down to the obvious contenders who will go off at obvious odds.

[RICH]

Miff

His best is the neg -1 in the slop last nov, other than that he is the same as many in here, even with that neg, there are a few just as fast, yes he may run big, just like many in here. I just don\'t feel the same enthusiasm on pyro, like so many others.

[MonmouthGuy]

Pyro\'s 3YO figs look very similar to a lot of horses that will be 3X his odds.

[miff]

Rich/Mon Guy,

Figs alone do not tell the whole story. How figs are earned is of equal importance.Good luck Sat.

Mike

[MonmouthGuy]

Good luck to you, too.  I am operating under the \"guess\" that Pyro is a 9F horse like CQ, and will not exhibit the same closing kick at 10F when forced to use himself earlier in the race to stay within striking distance of a faster pace.

[miff]

Mon,

A reasonable negative assumption for Pyro and all one run closers at 10f.



Mike

[marcus]

a lot of these off 3 to 4 pt + tops imo probably are stronger to bounce now than those currently off pairs , off efforts and , x\'s - as in the case of pyro . . .

[alm]

It\'s one thing to be able to deduce a horse will sprint or route...or will run one turn or two...or can stay on to 12 panels as opposed to 8...IMHO it is not possible at all to be able to predict that a young 3yo horse has a 9 panel ability as opposed to a 10 panel ability.

Besides which, TG numbers are intended to predict what level of achievement a horse might make based on its past and recent form.  That\'s their value and that\'s what their success is based upon.

Chances are a horse like Pyro can get 10 panels if he can get 9 and, if his TG numbers say he is in the hunt, you need to judge where his achievement level will be Saturday...that\'s all.

Factor in that his trainer is hip to the gig and is no damn fool.  He prepped this horse the way he did for a reason.  This may not be the winner, but this is a legitimate contender.  I learned my lesson with Curlin and it\'s my guess that Asmussen did too.

[marcus]

alm -  was wondering if your personal observations of Col John in the SA derby were consistent with the equix bio-mechanic guys hind tibia profiles ...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Thats the whole problem Alm. Pyro has not gotten 9 poles. And in the 8.5 events he wasn\'t beating much and wasn\'t earning much of figure. (I toss the Monmouth slop number that Beyer says was \"legit\". Right, legit alright, (whatever that means), I like to bet him on the probability of a repeat.

I was told Pyro was gimping around in the days before his Churchill work, but on work day (Scalding 49:4) the gimpiness seemed to depart. Interesting isn\'t it?

Add those concerns to trying to close into a less than rapid pace through a maze of traffic and I think you need about 12-1 before you begin to think exotics. With the recent good showings he may go off that. He may be second choice. I really don\'t have a clue what the crowd will do with this one, but in my book, he should be 15-1, but I doubt he will be.

alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It\'s one thing to be able to deduce a horse will
> sprint or route...or will run one turn or two...or
> can stay on to 12 panels as opposed to 8...IMHO it
> is not possible at all to be able to predict that
> a young 3yo horse has a 9 panel ability as opposed
> to a 10 panel ability.
>
> Besides which, TG numbers are intended to predict
> what level of achievement a horse might make based
> on its past and recent form.  That\'s their value
> and that\'s what their success is based upon.
>
> Chances are a horse like Pyro can get 10 panels if
> he can get 9 and, if his TG numbers say he is in
> the hunt, you need to judge where his achievement
> level will be Saturday...that\'s all.
>
> Factor in that his trainer is hip to the gig and
> is no damn fool.  He prepped this horse the way he
> did for a reason.  This may not be the winner, but
> this is a legitimate contender.  I learned my
> lesson with Curlin and it\'s my guess that Asmussen
> did too.

[big18741]

big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Small sample
>
>
> Curlin 0 - his only runner that paired up.
>
> Zanjero 5.75- his top came two races prior 2.25 at
> FG
>
> Private Vow 9.5 X\'d -paired his 2yo top 2.25 in
> the Ark Derby
>
> Storm Treasure 7.5 X\'d - ran a new top of 1.75 in
> the BG a 2.25 pt jump
>
> QGR eased up X\'d-ran a new top of 1.5 in the
> Lexington a 2.25 pt jump
>
> Private Emblem 9.0 X\'d-ran a new top of 2.0 in the
> Ark Derby a 4 pt jump
>
> Fifty Stars 7.25-was coming in off small paired
> tops 5.5


Add two more X\'s to the Derby list.


No axe to grind here.I only used his horses in all legs.Hit the tri a few times-thanks to under key Denis of Cork.Just an observation on Asmussen,but other  than Curlin who they bought for him as a 0 horse-he really hasn\'t developed any good routers.