David Patent Logic

[dpatent]

Fair point, Silver.  That\'s why they make them run around the block!

[Mall]

Hi David. As you and anyone else who saw the article in today\'s DRF already knows, there\'s still time to register online for the NHC Tour and participate in the free Oaks/Derby contest, which is offering two spots in the NHC.

Theoretically, the extra distance Brown has to travel is indeed almost exactly five feet, but what I think is much more noteworthy are the quarter cracks on both of Brown\'s two front hooves. It\'s been reported in the racing press, by writers who I\'m guessing never actually checked for themselves, that both quarter cracks are \"healed\", since that\'s what Dutrow told them, so it must be true.

I suppose \"healed\" could mean different things to different people, but I\'m told by an expert who personally observed and assessed the situation today that neither quarter crack has actually healed, but rather both have been patched with acrylic.

The last horse I remember running in the Derby with a quarter crack was Unbridled Song, although he wore bar shoes and Brown, as far as I know, does not wear any special shoes. Of course, patched quarter cracks don\'t mean Brown can\'t possibly win. As the gentleman who started this discussion probably recalls,Touch Gold had a patched quarter crack when he won the Belmont Stakes almost 11 years ago. If Dutrow is actually going all in on Saturday, he really must have at least as much confidence in his farrier as he does in his horse.

[fkach]

There\'s a report on PaceAdvantage that Dutrow is more confident privately than he is in public. I don\'t now how that is possible. LMAO

[ajkreider]

www.hoofcare.blogspot.com

Interesting stuff, including on BB\'s hooves.

[ajkreider]

HP:

That would be \"Kelly\'s Heroes\" - with Sutherland as the Tank Driver (\"always with the negative waves, Moriarty!\")

Sheesh.  Amateurs!

[RICH]

every board I\'m on says \"it\'s only 2ft more or 5ft more\" I have never heard this before. ANd now everyone is pulling this out of their bag of \"tricky-ies\" I don\'t buy it, if this was the 5th at belmont, in a 12 horse field, would you buy it? Come on.

[Silver Charm]

Flack think about what you just said. \"A public report about a private conversation\". There is no such thing.

TO will be at this years Derby and has nothing on Dutrow with all of the trash talking coming from his mouth.

This is a one number horse with two bad feet.and a trainer who says he is \"All In\" from the 20 hole.

And people were saying this years Derby was boring.F#ck it I\'m all in and it aint BB Tricky Ricky.

[dpatent]

Rich,

Unless you doubt Pythagoras, the math is simple.  Assuming that post 20 is 100 feet out from post 1 (generous) and the run-up is 1/4 mile then BB must travel about 3.8 more feet to get to the one path.

[ajkreider]

The issue isn\'t the geometry, as I see it.  Because that calculation assumes BB running in a straight line to the turn (which might actually be faster around, as he could carry more speed into the turn than a rail runner).

Wide post horses only get the straight line if they are unimpeded - which they almost never are, as there are a bunch of horses to their inside trying to get there as well.  BB doesn\'t just need to break cleanly and more quickly than the horses inside of him, he\'s got to be fast enough to be able to move in front of them as they approach the turn.

[miff]

Randy Moss measured all tracks from a sky view on google earth when he started his pace fig project. He said it\'s two feet and he is a pretty sharp guy with minutia.


Mike

[fkach]

I have no idea if BB is fit enough to get 10F, what kind of trip he will get from the 20 post, or whether the glue will fall off the shoes at the 1/8th pole, but IMO this is not a 1 figure horse like many of those that failed before him. IMHO, each of his races demonstrated extraordinary potential when viewed in a more comprehensive way.  

His first start wasn\'t super fast, but he came home better than any 2 year old turf horse I have seen with the possible exception of Barbaro. That was probably the reason some people were so hot to purchase him. The figures didn\'t tell the story.

His second start was a lot faster, he stalked a pace that was even faster than the final time, and won under complete wraps while those running with him early were gasping.

His 3rd start speaks for itself.

He\'s probably going to fall apart eventually (maybe even tomorrow). But he\'s been anything but a 1 figure horse to date no matter what the figures say. This horse has shown \"freak\" potential in every start.

I\'m going to have him on some tickets where I think there\'s value and totally off some tickets, but as a fan I\'m hoping he\'s ready for 10F, works out a reasonable trip, and delivers another performance that gives me chills.

[MonmouthGuy]

Again, that assumes he can clear the field in a straight line prior to the clubhouse turn.  I don\'t think he can, and if he does, he\'s gone too fast.

[miff]

Mon Guy;

\"Again, that assumes he can clear the field in a straight line prior to the clubhouse turn. I don\'t think he can, and if he does, he\'s gone too fast\"


....yes,like he did at Gulfstream.More negative BB stuff, he will wear front bandages for the first time. He ran down twice at GP and slighty burned his right heel, so Tricky is adding them.


Mike

[HP]

Right!  Wrong movie.  Sorry.

[Mall]

I wanted to get at least some idea of the new glue ons I heard so much about during the Kee meet,and which Brown will presumably be wearing again tomorrow, so thanks much ajkreider for the link.

I like Randy Moss and while he might pay very close attention to detail, I\'m pretty sure that he can\'t change the laws of arithmetic. There\'s a link to the exact CD dimensions which were the basis for my statement that, again theoretically, the extra distance is almost exactly five feet. I can\'t provide the link because the site is being blocked by Kee, but you should be able to find it pretty easily and do the calculations yourself if the difference is important to you.

Finally, here\'s a link to the DRF NHC Tour article:http://www.drf.com/news/article/94106.html Today\'s contest races are CD5,7,9,10 & 11. Tomorrow it\'s CD4,6,7,8 & 10. Best of luck to everyone who\'s participating.